The fall of Lembit Öpik

Iain Dale's Diary has this wonderful cartoon up of an AV ballot paper:

(Hattip to If Lembit were on fire...)

But when did Lembit have such a fall?

There was a time when Lembit was just a figure of fun, one of those wacky characters who enliven the fringes of politics more for their antics rather than their contribution to policy. Such figures have existed in all ages. Yet somewhere along the line Lembit has turned into an object of derison if not pure hate, even within his own party. (And this started before the Liberals had their first losing campaign in his seat since the days of Disraeli.)

Maybe it's because Lembit has stopped being funny and his efforts are now just irritating. Take for example this video for his campaign to be Mayor of London:

Citizen Lem from Mancha Productions on Vimeo.

Hideous isn't it?

Even Wolfie Smith's dreams of power were more credible than this!

The bloggers we lost

2010 saw a lot of big name bloggers stopping their habit, especially those on the right (and yes Tom Harris, I include you in that).

Iain Dale's blog is hosting a skeleton service by Grant Tucker and he's just posted Bloggers say goodbye! including this tribute video:

Political bloggers say goodbye from Political Scrapbook on Vimeo.

I am worse than Oona King, Alex Hilton, Melanie Phillips, David Miliband, John Redwood and Donal Blaney

Over the years this blog has appeared on the odd list of the best UK/Political/Conservative blogs and I'm very grateful to the various people who've voted for me in successive polls - I'm afraid I haven't always been quick to respond to these votes.

However there are other votes as well and there's one I've only recently heard of. For a while ago A Very Public Sociologist did their own awards and the results are at The UK's 100 Worst Political Blogs. And this very blog has been voted the UK's 71st Worst Political Blog.

However looking at some of the other blogs on the list I feel I'm in okay company. The likes of Iain Dale, Tory Bear, Guido Fawkes, Liberal Conspiracy, Socialist Unity and Tom Harris are but a few of the top twenty-five.

What is surprising are the blogs that have come above me. Given A Very Public Sociologist's leanings and readership the list's leaning is unsurprising and suggests voting owes more to political positions than actual blogging. But I do take bemusement at being voted worse than the following:

90 Melanie Phillips
73 John Redwood's Diary
72 Donal Blaney (by invitation only)

I wonder what I've done to be a bigger hate figure to the hard left than the above!

Still I'm also considered worse than some Labour figures too:

94 Oona King
92 Alex Hilton
87 David Miliband

Being labelled as worse than David Miliband and Oona King by the hard left is a badge I'd wear with pride.

The election count - get it right not get it first

I have just seen Iain Dale's Diary: Election Night Bill Needed in which he's now calling for legislation to have all the counts done immediately on the night. You'd think from all this "Save Election Night" campaigning that things have been done this way since time immemorial.

But as some my readers will remember, there have been many parliamentary elections when the votes haven't been counted until the next day. In 1945 the votes weren't counted for a whole three weeks. I have no idea if the 1945 equivalent of the blogosphere got worked up about this. (The reason for such a lengthy delay was that time was needed to collect the votes of servicemen overseas.) At most other elections there have been many constituencies that have not counted on the night, usually because of the time it takes to bring all the ballot boxes together - has this caused uproar and fraud? Seats in Northern Ireland have almost always counted the next day after all!

Nor have governments always changed immediately on the day after polling. In 1929 polling day was on May 30th but Ramsay MacDonald didn't kiss hands until June 5th - was there widespread outrage at Stanley Baldwin still being in office for a few days?

And in many other countries the final result, and the change of leadership, often takes days on end. In the last Australian election polling was on November 24th but the formal result took nearly two weeks to finalise, and Kevin Rudd's government wasn't sworn in until December 3rd. In the last US Presidential election some of the counting went on into December.

Counts in Australia, the United States and many other countries take so long for one main reason - postal votes (and other forms of distant voting) do not reach the count by the end of polling day. The requirement is usually that the vote be sent by polling day, not that it be received by then. There are also other arrangements for remote voting in various countries, including one provision that allows a voter to walk into any polling station in the country on polling day, provide proof of their address and receive valid ballot papers for their local polling station that they are away from. Again these votes take time to make it back to the relevant count.

The way the count is done in many countries differs from our methods. Instead of taking all the ballot boxes to a central location and counting them on one site, they are often counted at the polling station and the individual results declared. The ballot papers can, of course, be recounted at a central location if the result is close and/or there are disputes over the rulings on questionable papers. This isn't so different from the European Parliament or devolved parliaments or Greater London Authority elections where for all the list elections and the London Mayoralty the votes are counted at several different locations.

Now in none of these cases did civilisation collapse just because the final election result wasn't available on the night. And in all of them the provision for postal/overseas/absent ballots meant that it wasn't possible.

Which brings us to the UK counts. Whilst simple cost and travel logistics are and always have been reasons for some seats not counting on the night, there is a new factor - the massive increase in postal voting on demand. With postal votes arriving even at the end of polling day the system going to come under a much greater strain than before in order to carry out accurate verification. That is going to make the whole thing take longer, increasing the risk of mistakes because the counting staff are ever more tired.

Speedy, sloppy election results benefit no-one. And if the election is incredibly close and hinges on one or two very tight seats, is it really in anyone's benefit if there are disputes and questions about the results in those seats because of the judgement calls made in a hurry to get the result out on the night?

If this means a lameduck government leaves office on a Saturday or Sunday rather than a Friday, so what? And yes it will mean political junkies don't get the full fun of results at 3 o'clock in the morning, but democracy should not be run as a spectator sport.

(And we've barely touched on the cost. Are the "Save Election Night" campaigners willing to personally stump up for the overtime rates? Or do they expect it to come out of our council taxes?)

So let's stop worrying about whether the vote is counted on the night or the next day and put election accuracy first. It may take a little longer but it will be well worth it.

An imminent change of leader?

Very soon there could be a new First Minister of Northern Ireland. Rumours are flying around that Peter Robinson may be about to quit. (e.g. Iain Dale: RUMOUR ALERT: Peter Robinson to Quit?)

Amazing - on the day everyone is focused on the fate of one former finance minister who succeeded a political giant another may be about to go.

Anyone heard anything about Brian Cowen's activities today?

UPDATE: It seems the rumours were significantly off key. I'll post my thoughts later.

Parliamentary comedy

In the season of goodwill, here's a hilarious exchange from Questions to Ministers in the New Zealand Parliament:

Now can anyone find a clip from the UK Parliament that's in such high spirits?

Hat-tip to Iain Dale: Questions to the Minister, Kiwi Style.

Blog round up

Some interesting posts from the rest of the blogosphere:

Coleview, Covingham & Nythe Conservatives have noted how the Minister of Democracy and his family's electoral registration is in breach of the rules about second homes in Minister of Democracy's family ineligible to vote in Swindon elections

Dizzy Thinks has a sense of proportion about the way some MPs have made totally reasonable claims for their particular constituencies and are still being pilloried form them in This is the problem......

Iain Dale discusses the way criticism of the Telegraph's motives has been silenced in Telegraph Takes Down Nadine's Blog.

Paul Burgin (Mars Hill) discusses the forthcoming reshuffle in What Needs To Be Done With The Cabinet.

Tom Harris (And another thing) warns against kneejerk constitutional changes that have nothing to do with MPs' expenses The worst possible time to consider wider reform.

And since there's more than just MPs' expenses:

Kerron Cross wonders what the departure of the main generator of Liberal Democrat nastiness means in The End Of The Bar Chart Party?

Nábídána.com takes a look at some scientific developments at two rival universities in Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil students bid to outdo each other in political science.

Tory Bear in A small victory notes how LGBT Labour are losing both the T-shirt war and the plot.

Glyn Davies (A View from Rural Wales) is Declaring war on Bambi.

"A peace process too far"?

Thanks to Iain Dale's Diary: The Daley Dozen: Wednesday for pointing me too Slugger O'Toole: Fianna Fail's European dilemma..., which in turn points to Irish Examiner: FF's Euro wing is trying to wriggle between a rock and a hard place.

Can anyone tell me which party produced the Irish Taoiseach who wrote the following? And which party produced the UK Prime Minister he was writing to?

I would like to testify that you did more than any former British Statesman to make a true friendship between the peoples of our two countries possible, and, if the task has not been completed, that it has not been for want of goodwill on your part.

The answers are, surprisingly, Fianna Fáil and the Conservatives. (The men in question were Éamon de Valera and Neville Chamberlain.)

As I've noted before, the Conservatives are not the only party who have had problems relating to alliances in the European Parliament. The Irish party Fianna Fáil have had similar. Even the recent announcement that they are going to join the European Liberals has provoked criticism and internal rows. But Fianna Fáil can't stay where they are forever as the Union for a Europe of Nations is in danger of dropping below the rules for being a recognised group in the parliament, not least because the Conservatives are seeking recruits for their new group from it.

The Examiner makes an interesting hint:

The Tories and FF might have more in common than they both realise. Both consider themselves natural parties of government and both are instinctively suspicious of ideology.

Indeed there is so much in common that there are many Conservatives who admit they would strongly consider voting for them if they were voting in Ireland. Might a linkup in the European Parliament be a solution to both parties' problems here?

Unfortunately there are some rather major stumbling blocks on this possibility:

Trouble is the Tories want to be with Europe but are not of it, to use Churchill's phrase.

And then there's the issue of the North. Everyone's for the Agreement these days but there's about a century's worth of bad blood between the two parties. It would be a brave Fianna Fáiler who made the case for a Tory link-up. It's probably a peace process too far.

There's also the not insignificant problem of Fianna Fáil's support for the Lisbon Treaty in spite of the Irish "No" vote last year, which would be the major stumbling block at the Conservative end - would the grassroots be happy.

But the latter problem is a temporary one that will fade with time - who now even remembers which parties were for and against Maastricht? The former - well other past bad blood has certainly been overcome, but this isn't exactly an insignificant one, even for a notoriously pragmatic party like Fianna Fáil. There have been times when the two parties' leaders have been close, as shown above, but it would take so much more.

And yet... the European Parliament has certainly thrown up other strange alliances. How many years will pass before this one doesn't seem so unthinkable?

Car crashes in African politics

I've been reluctant to post this but as others have pointed it out (see David Boothroyd's comment on Iain Dale's Diary: Sad News from Zimbabwe) I'll go ahead and say my reaction to the sad news from Zimbabwe.

I have been reminded of one of the first ever articles I read on African history as an undergraduate: "Remembering Du: An Episode in the development of Malawian political culture" in African Affairs 97:369-396 (July, 1998). For those without access to the article it looks at the death of Dunduzu Chisiza and how "car accidents" involving significant political rivals have become a significant factor in the politics of not just Malawi but in many other African countries. Coincidence can be all too convenient.

Zimbabwean politicians who have died this way include (again, thanks to a comment by David Boothroyd):

* Josiah Tongogara (December 1979), single car crash in Mozambique. He was the leader of the anti-Mugabe faction in ZANU which wanted to run a joint election campaign with ZAPU.
* Rufaro Gwanzura (August 2000), car crash in Zimbabwe. MP for Marondera West.
* Border Gezi (April 2001), single car crash on the Masvingo road. Minister for Gender, Youth and Employment with a large following among young members of ZANU-PF.
* Moven Mahachi (May 2001), single car crash in Zimbabwe. Minister of Defence and popular among the armed forces.

Understandably the Movement for Democratic Change are launching their own investigation into this incident. (BBC News: MDC to examine Tsvangirai crash) Many will be hoping that this was a genuine and tragic accident, but I hope this does not lead to the investigation being fudged. Truth must not be sacrificed to convenience.

UKIP - One party, one(ish) policy, one leader

I have just read Daily Telegraph: Why Ukip has just lost another member in which leading UKIP member Robin Page explains why he has resigned from the party.

Five years ago the story about UKIP was one of optimism, a party that was self-confident and aiming for a major breakthrough. Ever since the party has flopped around, it has lost a quarter of its MEPs, it has had very public spats and has degenerated into a cross between a rubbish bin for dissatisfied politicians and a vehicle for one politician's ego. Nigel Farage has achieved his ambition of being the biggest fish in the goldfish tank that is UKIP. A party run on undemocratic lines by a leader noted for his racism (Iain Dale's Diary: The Question Nigel Farage Must Answer) - UKIP is going in a very dangerous direction.

Where Were You When You Heard Margaret Thatcher Had Resigned?

In response to Iain Dale's Diary: Where Were You When You Heard Margaret Thatcher Had Resigned?, I was at school that day. My class heard the news from our Latin teacher when we went in after morning break - she had heard the infamous "Thatchy Pog" weather forecast on the radio.

My entire family was staunchly supporting Michael Heseltine - indeed my father had a letter published in the Daily Telegraph in support of him - but I can't remember feeling any particularly strong feelings about the news. Maybe we were all stunned - none of us had lived under any other Prime Minister - or not sufficiently following politics to care hugely (east Surrey was not a place where children were brought up from birth to blindly hate Thatcher).

And so there it is - not the most spectacular memory of that day. But as for some more recent resignations...

A year of Nick Clegg

Apparently Nick Clegg has been leader of the Liberal Democrats for exactly one year today. (Hattip to Iain Dale's Diary: Nick Clegg: A Year of Progress or A Year of Disappointment? as I wouldn't have noticed otherwise.) So what has happened in his year as leader?

Well to be honest not much. The Liberal Democrats have stabilised, have managed to have a year without a leadership election (the first since 2004) but generally have been rather obscure. Their biggest news story was the massive splits when Clegg decided to oppose calls for a referendum on the EU Constitution "Treaty", when they are the party that has called for referendums on such treaties before. (Liberals continue ditching democracy and And so continues the Lib Dem Muppet Show) So that's one strike against democracy. (However I'm not sure that Clegg himself is responsible for the party's youth wing ditching students and democracy - see Young Liberals abandon students and democracy.) Otherwise the party has continued to be all over the place when it comes to tax cuts and that's about it really.

What about Clegg himself? Well he hasn't really made a great political impact and he's best known for the admission of sleeping with thirty women. It confirms that there are times when the public have the right not to know but has otherwise made him into a figure of fun. (However Jeremy Vine came off even worse - see Never again!) Then there was the revelation and attempted cover-up about the fact that Clegg was a member of the Conservatives at Cambridge. (Clegg's murky past) But beyond that Clegg hasn't made any real impact.

Still he can take some consolation when compared to the Liberal Democrats's counterparts in other countries. In the last twelve months their Canadian counterparts have suffered their worst election results since federation and seen their attempts to pervert democracy backfire big time with the leader deposed (When was this put to the electorate?), Has Canadian democracy triumphed?, "Forest Gump as a Prime Minister will not go over well in Quebec" and Harper 1, Dion Nil), their Australian counterparts have disappeared from parliament and their Irish counterparts have voted to dissolve themselves (The end of the Progressive Democrats).

John McCain shows his grace

Thanks to Iain Dale's Diary: McCain Shows His Class for this one. John McCain has put out the following advert to congratulate his opponent:

It's not an advert to win votes but a reminder that politics doesn't have to be ridiculously partisan at all times. Well done that man!

Has David Davis succeeded?

When David Davis announced his resignation from the Commons over 42 days detention many saw him as making a courageous move because opinion polls suggested that public opinion was behind the government on this issue.

Now an opinion poll has suggested a significant shift in public opinion, suggesting that because the issue has had much greater debate in public people have learnt more about it and decided they don't like it. Taking the debate to the wider public, rather than facing down Mad Cow Girl, has been the purpose of Davis's stance and it seems he's been successful, regardless of what the result is on Thursday.

Hattip to Iain Dale: Has David Davis's National Debate Been Sparked?

Are the polls believable?

Normally any partisan beast or supposedly "neutral" commentator will have one of two attitudes to opinion polls. When they show the result one wants it becomes a stick to beat others with. When they don't show the result there is no end of nonsense about the way in which polls are compiled, together with that classic statement "The only poll that matters is the general election," which is politician-speak for "We are going to lose big time."

But I have to say I am finding some of the current opinion polls to be too good to be true. Maybe that means on election night I'm going to enjoy the result, maybe it means I'll be able to say "Told you so," to anyone who can't strangle me. The latest poll suggests that Gordon Brown has a worse approval rating now than Iain Duncan Smith did. (The Times: Gordon Brown slides to record poll low as crucial vote looms)

Now I can remember the two years of Iain Duncan Smith's leadership and I have to say I don't recall being particularly depressed by the whole affair. Maybe that's because after four years of William Hague, when things did get very depressing, just doing about the same was at least familiar. Certainly I viewed the events of Halloween 2003 with a degree of dread that changing the leader could get the party into an even worse mess than it was already in. As it happened I was proved wrong. But I can understand why Labour are scared to even consider a new leader, quite apart from a rulebook that makes a leadership challenge less likely than Downing Street being invaded by Elvis Presley and Lord Lucan riding on the back of the Loch Ness Monster.

But will Gordon Brown see it that way? I think Iain Dale puts it well: I Wouldn't Want to be a Mobile Phone in No 10 Tonight.

Has Young Fine Gael lost the plot?

Young Fine Gael, the youth wing of one of the Irish political parties (but don't ask me what they stand for!), have launched posters in support of the European Constitution Lisbon "Treaty". And these are frankly some of the silliest arguments made in its favour yet:



Aren't they truly dire? Has Young Fine Gael got no serious reasons for people in the Republic of Ireland to vote yes?

Still at least the Irish get a say on this "Treaty", thanks to Supreme Court rulings, which is more than everyone gets. But then if other countries let the people have a say, they might "get it wrong" and that would never do for the "European Project", would it?

Oh and for those wondering, Young Fine Gael can hardly be called a counterpart of Conservative Future. The European affiliations aren't the same for one thing - Young Fine Gael is in Youth of the European People's Party and Conservative Future is, for some inexplicable reason, in European Democrat Students.

Hat tip to Iain Dale: Well I'm Convinced, How About You?!

Young Lib Dems to become a lie?

Hattips to Dizzy and Iain Dale who report on the story that Liberal Democrat Youth & Students is about to have a makeover and rebranding as "Liberal Youth". (Dizzy Thinks: Clegg to spin 'Yoof Wing' relaunch? & Iain Dale: Is Nick Clegg About to Change His Party's Name) What has caught the imagination of the blogosphere (e.g. Norfolk Blogger: Are we set to become the "Liberal Party"?) is the possibility that this could be a prelude to the Liberal Democrats as a whole reverting to the name "Liberal Party", although as there is already a registered Liberal Party, the name isn't available. (see Hug A Hoodie: Why Nick Clegg won't rebrand us as "The Liberal Party") Some are speculating that the former Social Democrats in the party will be hostile to this move, but this overlooks the fact that the merger is now twenty years old and the turnover in that party is such that many have no reason to care one way or the other.

But what I haven't seen anyone notice yet is how this move could be disastrous for the Youth & Students wing itself. The acronym "LDYS" can and often is pronounced "Lie-Dies", no doubt to the annoyance of many a LDYS member (who tend to pronounce each letter separately). But "LY" is even worse. This would be the silliest renaming exercise since the Reform Party of Canada dissolved itself in favour of a new party, the "Canadian Conservative Reform Alliance" and only then when the media pointed it out did they realise what happens when you add "Party" to that.

So will the young Lib Dems abandon a name with "rat" in it for one that makes them a lie? Time will tell...

Tom Watson - Two names and two faces

Labour's performance in the by-election in Ealing Southall is generating more and more nastiness. First we get the farce of an All Women Shortlist being imposed on the constituency, then retracted following a strong campaign against it. Cue outrage from the AWS advocates. (Antonia Bance: Ealing Southall) Then the shortlist that was put to the membership did not meet the hopes of those who sought to overturn the AWS in the first place. Cue outrage. (SikhSangat News: Labour Party Sikh Members Not Impressed By Labour Selection Process For Ealing Southall) It seems as though whoever in the Labour Party is responsible for overseeing the selection has decided that when it's not possible to please everyone the key priority is to outrage everyone.

Then we get the farce of Tom Watson MP claiming the Conservative candidate is not a registered voter. This is because he didn't bother to look properly. Under changes to electoral law made by Tom Watson's government, candidates are entitled to stand under their best known name rather than their full formal name. You would have thought that the person in charge of Labour's election campaign would know current electoral law!!! Clearly he also doesn't know the electoral law that it is illegal to publish false statements about candidates under electoral law. (Tom Watson MP: Who is Tony Lit? and also Iain Dale: EXCLUSIVE: Labour Breach Electoral Law in Ealing Southall)

Next Tom Watson dug his hole deeper by attacking Tony Lit for sometimes going by his full name (Surinderpal Singh Lit) and sometimes by his given name (Tony Lit). (Tom Watson MP: Who is Tony Lit? [2]) This from a man presenting himself to the world as "Tom Watson" when his full name is "Thomas Anthony Watson". Has he not noticed this?

And for the record I technically go by several variations of name. As well as using "Tim" as my first name, there is deep ambiguity over whether or not there is a hyphen in my surname - I use one but other members of my family don't. And as many internet registrations don't allow spaces and hyphens "timrollpickering" has almost become another name for me. I am sure many others do. Perhaps Tom aka Thomas Anthony Watson would like to spend more time getting his facts straight and less making gaffes.

Quentin Davies is still an MP?

News broke today that Quentin Davies has defected to the Labour Party. The biggest shock for me was that Davies was still an MP!

Davies was a regular Europhilliac bastard during the Major years and since then bumbled around in a series of shadow appointments, culminating in his less than effective two years as Shadow Northern Ireland Secretary. It emerged today that he was so highly regarded that David Trimble refused to have meetings with him. (Iain Dale's Diary: Tory Turncoat Joins Labour) References to Davies in Dean Godson's biography of Trimble are few and invariably negative - it seems he only got away with as much as he did because he was one of the few Shadow Cabinet Members unable to undermine Iain Duncan Smith. Even Paddy Ashdown would make a better Northern Ireland Secretary and that's saying a lot.

Since then he's been invisible. I saw him at a Conservative History Group meeting last week but there were also a number of Lords and many from outside Parliament in the room, so it meant nothing.

Yes there'll be Labour crooning over this recruit - although I'd advise Labour members to have a look at Davies' voting record to see if they like what they're getting. And it is not just his voting record that they may not wish to be associated with.

And amongst the reasons Davies gives in his resignation letter is this:

You are the first leader of the Conservative Party who (for different reasons) will not be received either by the President of the United States, or by the Chancellor of Germany (up to, and very much including, Iain Duncan Smith every one of your predecessors was most welcome both in the White House and in all the chancelleries of Europe).
...I have never done business with people who deliberately break contracts, and I knew last year that if you left the EPP-ED Group I could no longer remain in a party under your leadership.

I don't mind the party leader being unpopular in the George W. Bush White House. Or care about some grouping in the European Parliament that is contrary to the interests of the Conservative Party.

So don't think for one moment I'm shedding tears at this loss. Nor are many others - see ConservativeHome: Quentin Davies MP defects to Labour!. Who knows it may turn out for better. Sean Woodward's joining Labour contributed nothing to them. His leaving us contributed everything.

Does anyone else fancy raising a little leaving present for him? I think £1.50 in 5p pieces would be appropriate.

Ming - in his dreams!

Thanks to Iain Dale's Diary: Unfortunate TV News Captions: No 94 for this gem:

So what do others reckon?

"Fantastic! 10!"

"Rubbish! 0!"