Bye bye forty-two days(?)

I haven't blogged for a while as various other concerns have been occupying my time, but back to the fore with the vote last night in the House of Lords overwhelmingly rejecting the proposals for forty-two days' detention and the subsequent government announcement that they are not going to try to force things through with the Parliament Act. The top politics story on the BBC News website is Davis 'vindicated' over 42 days and indeed he is.

However the reports that the government will not abandon the plan completely but instead keep a one page bill in reserve for emergencies are a little worrying, especially the suggestion that at the time they will declare they could have had the measure in place sooner "but for the unelected Lords". (BBC News: A tactical retreat on 42 days) This is posturing for the sake of it. And the government has been in power for eleven years - it's had all the time it could have wanted to change the composition of the Lords. But on the only actual public test of opinion Labour declined to defend its position (though others stepped forward to the task) and the public overwhelmingly rejected it. On this the Lords have shown themselves more in tune with public opinion than the Commons.

A beautiful defection?

News of the latest possible recruit to the Conservative Party has come through - Gemma Garrett, the current Miss Great Britain and Miss Belfast and founder of the Miss Great Britain Party, who recently stood against David Davis. (Daily Mail: A glamour move? - Gemma Garrett may switch to the Tories) It's an interesting possible move but if true I suspect she won't get so much publicity as a mere regular on the candidates' list. Also the policies of the Miss Great Britain Party contain some things that aren't out of place on a Conservative manifesto but some of them, like two new tax rates, are not exactly expected!

Hattip to Guido Fawkes: Beauty and the Basher for this story.

David Davis vindicated!

The results of the Haltemprice and Howden by-election, 2008, courtesy of Wikipedia:

Haltemprice and Howden by-election, 2008
Party		Candidate	Votes	%	±%
	Conservative	David Davis	17,113	71.6	+24.1
	Green	Shan Oakes	1,758	7.4	N/A
	English Democrats	Joanne Robinson	1,714	7.2	N/A
	National Front	Tess Culnane	544	2.3	N/A
	Miss Great Britain Party	Gemma Garrett	521	2.2	N/A
	Independent	Jill Saward	492	2.1	N/A
	Monster Raving Loony	Mad Cow-Girl	412	1.7	N/A
	Independent	Walter Sweeney	238	1.0	N/A
	Independent	John Nicholson	162	0.7	N/A
	Independent	David Craig	135	0.6	N/A
	The New Party	David Pinder	135	0.6	N/A
	no label	David Icke	110	0.5	N/A
	Freedom 4 Choice	Hamish Howitt	91	0.4	N/A
	Socialist Equality	Chris Talbot	84	0.4	N/A
	Independent	Grace Astley	77	0.3	N/A
	Christian Party	George Hargreaves	76	0.3	N/A
	Church of the Militant Elvis Party	David Bishop	44	0.2	N/A
	Independent	John Upex	38	0.2	N/A
	Independent	Greg Wood	32	0.1	N/A
	Independent	Eamonn Fitzpatrick	31	0.1	N/A
	Make Politicians History	Ronnie Carroll	29	0.1	N/A
	Independent	Thomas Darwood	25	0.1	N/A
	Independent	Christopher Foren	23	0.1	N/A
	Independent	Herbert Crossman	11	0.0	N/A
	Independent	Tony Farnon	8	0.0	N/A
	Independent	Norman Scarth	8	0.0	N/A
Majority			15,355	64.2	+53.5
Turnout			23,911	34.5	-35.7
	Conservative hold		Swing	N/A

With Labour running away from the opportunity to defend government policy the by-election could have had micro turnout but it didn't. David Davis has been vindicated in his courageous stance on forty-two days detention.

Looking at the also-rans, amazingly there are six women immediately behind Davis but this could just be because of candidate selection. And the Official Monster Raving Loony Party's hopes of getting their best ever result have been thwarted once again. Ronnie Carroll was looking for the lowest number of votes ever and failed - he didn't even finish in the bottom five. Here's a couple of tips - don't tell everyone that's your goal and don't run with a description saying "Make Politicians History" that was bound to pick up a few votes.

Has David Davis succeeded?

When David Davis announced his resignation from the Commons over 42 days detention many saw him as making a courageous move because opinion polls suggested that public opinion was behind the government on this issue.

Now an opinion poll has suggested a significant shift in public opinion, suggesting that because the issue has had much greater debate in public people have learnt more about it and decided they don't like it. Taking the debate to the wider public, rather than facing down Mad Cow Girl, has been the purpose of Davis's stance and it seems he's been successful, regardless of what the result is on Thursday.

Hattip to Iain Dale: Has David Davis's National Debate Been Sparked?

Who wants to be Gordon Brown?

The search for a person who will stand again David Davis on the government's position of forty-two days internment continues, with the news that the Labour Party has declined to put up a candidate and Kelvin MacKenzie is now unlikely to run either.

One interesting suggestion is for a Conservative who is in favour of forty-two days to stand, with ConservativeHome's own Tim Montgomerie being suggested. (Blaney's Blarney: A viable opponent for David Davis?) I believe this would result in Tim's expulsion from the party and it could also turn the whole election into a wider debate about the role of ConservativeHome in the modern party, which is not what most people want to see.

But if no major candidate is forthcoming, there is always the possibility of a paper candidature. As I previously blogged in I am seriously impressed with David Davis, in some of the by-elections over the Anglo-Irish Agreement when no-one would come forward to challenge a sitting Unionist (and yes, it was disgraceful that at the time the Conservative Party was not organised and contesting elections there and thus did not put up to defend the government policy, however bad that policy was) a Unionist activists changed his name by deed poll to "Peter Barry", the name of the Irish foreign minister, and stood as a paper candidate in four seats on a pro Agreement platform. Thus voters were able to choose between pro and anti-Agreement options.

So would anyone like to be Gordon Brown for an election?

I also note that someone I'd never heard of before called Andy Burnham, who is apparently the Secretary of State for Culture, Media and Sport, has managed to get a headline saying Davis 'should fund by-election' (BBC News). Would it be too much to hope for that Andy Burnham is also calling for Gordon Brown to personally reimburse the country all the public money that was spent in persuading enough MPs to support this measure?

I am seriously impressed with David Davis

I turned on the television to see the news that David Davis is resigning to fight a by-election on the issue of 42 days detention. (BBC News: David Davis resigns from Commons) This is one of the most impressive moves I've seen in politics in a long time.

I've been searching my memory (and a very good book co-edited by my supervisor) for previous cases where MPs resigned to fight by-elections and the precedents are mixed. Here are all the ones I can find from the last seventy years:

Kinross and Western Perthshire by-election, 1938. This by-election saw the Duchess of Atholl, who had resigned the Conservative whip earlier in the Parliament, resign her seat in protest at the government's European policy. She was unopposed by Labour or the Liberals (after their leadership intervened) but lost the seat to the new Conservative candidate in a two candidate fight.

Not Gravesend by-election, 1955! Sir Richard Acland resigned from the Labour Party and the Commons in protest at the party's support for nuclear defence. He was going to fight as an independent but the 1955 general election overtook events. In a contest against Labour and Conservative candidates the Conservatives gained the seat.

Lincoln by-election, 1973. Dick Taverne had been fighting a battle with militants in his Constituency Labour Party and took it to the wider electorate. In a six candidate contest (although with no Liberal candidate), Taverne won standing as "Democratic Labour".

Mitcham and Morden by-election, 1982, a by-election that a lot of people talked about recently in the run-up to Crewe and Nantwich. Bruce Douglas-Mann changed from Labour to the Social Democratic Party and opted to ask the electorate. The Conservatives gained the seat and people still wonder why defecting MPs always resist calls for by-elections.

The 15 Northern Ireland by-elections, 1986. All fifteen Unionist MPs resigned their seats in protest at the introduction of the Anglo-Irish Agreement. However getting the other parties to contest the seats proved difficult - the SDLP and Sinn Féin only ran in the four seats with a Nationalist majority and although the Alliance and Workers' Party reluctantly stood candidates across another seven seats, in four a paper candidate had to be found. This led to a man changing his name to "Peter Barry", the name of the Irish Foreign Minister, who polled a poor vote. Maybe someone wants to stand against Davis as "Gordon Brown"? The most significant outcome was in the Newry and Armagh by-election where Jim Nicholson lost to the SDLP's Seamus Mallon.

And that's it. I suppose Davis's position is closest to the Northern Irish by-elections although he has made a personal decision whereas the Unionists were making a party decision.

So how will Haltemprice and Howden go? I don't know. But Davis is taking a very strong principled stance on the issue, maybe even making a courageous decision, and that is good for politics in general.

Oh and with the news the Liberal Democrats aren't fielding a candidate means this will be the first by-election without a candidate from one of the three largest UK parties since South Antrim in 2000. For those who want to cry that's Northern Ireland then the next previous was Newham North East (the other side of my home borough) in 1994 when the Liberal Democrats nominated their only local councillor, Alec Kellaway, who defected to Labour during the campaign! (Kellaway appears to have always been a Social Democrat who decided Labour rather than the Lib Dems were his natural home. At the time of the SDP-Liberal merger he had originally joined the David Owen "continuing" Social Democratic Party.) But lest anyone cry foul on that then it was Glasgow Centralin 1980. A Young Liberal thought not standing a candidate was a bad move and so stood as a maverick, but only got 1.7% of the vote.

Now a lot of the history books will have to be rewritten...