Another Liberal Democrat (deputy) leadership election

Thanks to Vincent Cable, the political world gets to enjoy yet another Liberal Democrat (deputy) leadership election. The wider world is, I'm sure, equally fascinated - remember John Prescott's comments last time?

First, let me welcome the hon. Gentleman to his role as acting deputy leader. We all know that the election will take place after today, and I wish him well. The matter is riveting the nation's attention—in fact, on my visit to Hull last weekend they talked of nothing else in the pubs.

(Hansard)

Cable has said he's standing down from the post purely because of the time commitments, but it's also notable that as the position is elected by the MPs it is the nearest to an equivalent of the Conservative Chair of the 1922 Committee or the Chair of the Parliamentary Labour Party and thus the best way Liberal Democrat MPs can represent their views to the leadership. And it's hard to do that when the post is held by a Cabinet Minister. So could the new deputy be someone outside the government - maybe this is finally the moment for Simon Hughes? Alternatively the post might offer the chance for a big name to make a comeback - would it be beneath Charles Kennedy or Sir Menzies Campbell to stand?

The election will take place on June 9th so for the moment it could be the most interesting show in town. Anyone care to predict the dark horse candidate?

Harper 1, Dion Nil

The first time I mentioned Stéphane Dion here (in Liberal woes) it was when I'd seen the following on Kerron Cross: Liberal Party Finished:

He is finished, as is the Liberal Party. Many Liberals are considering quitting the party because of the incompetent leader they have.

Time to face some facts:

+ He will never be prime minister
+ He is not a leader
+ He will never connect with local people
+ He will never connect with the rest of the country

Liberals will now have to force a new leadership contest if they want to have even the slightest chance of being the official opposition over the next years.

At the time the comparison was with Sir Menzies Campbell, but the words still ring true. After his shabby last ditch attempt to get himself installed as Prime Minister, Dion has today succumbed to Liberal Party pressure to bring forward his resignation. (Globe and Mail: Liberal battle lines drawn) So after a dramatic week in Canadian politics, one that has had many around the globe deeply following the saga (and its implications for the Westminster system of government), the immediate outcome is that Stephen Harper is still Prime Minister and Stéphane Dion has been sent packing by his own party. The coalition deal has backfired on the Liberals before it's even delivered anything and it gets more doubtful that the attempt will be renewed in January.

How long do elections last?

I've just read Mike's Election Guide 2008 by Michael Moore. There's a lot I don't agree with, although his comments about excessive restrictions on Little League Baseball games so that children are only allowed to make a total of thirty-eight pitches are spot on.

But it's his comments about how long US elections last that made me want to laugh out loud. Noting the Presidential election officially began in 2006 he comments "Here in the US it lasts almost as long as the Ming Dynasty."

Now could he possibly have had in mind Ming Campbell famously trying to deflect leadership speculation by declaring "The last Ming dynasty lasted 267 years"? And then his own lasting less than two?

Ming says he was a eunuch

Sir Menzies Campbell has given an interview declaring his party is not "fit for 24-hour-a-day news". (BBC News: Lib Dems 'not fit for 24hr news') It's clear that he's still bitter about the huge number of off-the-record briefings from members of his party that undermined him. And his irritation with comments about his age is all too clear. But I feel he brought this on himself - nobody ever made an issue of Michael Howard's age and Howard is only two months younger than Campbell. However Howard never tried to make anything of his age.

But what stands out the most are his comments about being leader:

"One of the things I learned very early on is that the leader of the party - the opposite of the harlot - has the responsibility but not the power."

He may not have mentioned Tom Stoppard by name, but it's hard to avoid thinking of Stoppard's classic reverse of Stanley Baldwin's famous quote. Where Baldwin spoke of "Power without responsibility — the prerogative of the harlot throughout the ages", Stoppard said "responsibility without power, the prerogative of the eunuch throughout the ages".

So does Ming realise what he's said he is?

A new species on the endangered list

Yesterday I had no internet access and consequently the resignation of Sir Menzies Campbell largely passed me by, so I didn't see the hints and whispers about the men in grey sandals telling Campbell his time was up. His interview on BBC News 24 this afternoon suggests there's a lot of anger there. He can at least console himself that the knives went into his back, rather than the front as with Charles Kennedy. But given his role in that fiasco, Campbell cannot complain about his downfall. But it now seems that Liberal Democrat leaders are the most endangered species in British politics - by the end of this Parliament they'll have had four different leaders since the election!

As to his successor - well aside from the acting leadership of Vincent Cable - who should the Liberal Democrats go for? Nick Clegg and Chris Huhne are both being talked up a lot - but the party may remember that last time they plumped for the obvious choice and look where that got them!

Of course there is one MP who absolutely has to stand, if only to ensure he can't accidentally support someone else! So come on down Lembit Öpik, this is your chance! As leader, you would have the chance to tell the country why protecting us all from asteroids is the number one priority!

P.S. There's a group on Facebook: Lembit Öpik MP for Lib Dem leader! So join up and invite others to do so as well!

Liberal Democrat leader steps down

You were all expecting to hear that the Lib Dems have finally done what needs doing and deposed Sir Menzies Campbell, weren't you? Well that news hasn't come through yet. But what has come through is that Lembit Öpik is resigning as leader of the Welsh Liberal Democrats. (BBC News: Öpik to step down from party post) He's jumped before being pushed - Lembit has been losing a lot of support lately. (See Liberal Democrat *leaders* in trouble)

So who will succeed Lembit in the battle for this incredibly coveted post?

Liberal woes

Courtesey of Kerron Cross: Liberal Party Finished:

Just read this:

He is finished, as is the Liberal Party. Many Liberals are considering quitting the party because of the incompetent leader they have.

Time to face some facts:

+ He will never be prime minister
+ He is not a leader
+ He will never connect with local people
+ He will never connect with the rest of the country

Liberals will now have to force a new leadership contest if they want to have even the slightest chance of being the official opposition over the next years.

His supporters/apologists still have their blinkers on, and it's really quite sad having to witness their flailing and splashing around while they're drowning.

How very true.

Oh, he's referring to Stéphane Dion, leader of the Liberal Party of Canada. (See The Spade: Bye-bye, Dion.)

But he's not the only Liberal leader in trouble is he?

How long will Ming last?

The Liberal Democrats haven't taken Ealing Southall, despite being in second place at the last general election. This failure is the worst by-election result for the Liberal Democrats since Richmond (North Yorkshire) in 1989 (when all three post Liberal-Social Democrat merger parties contested the seat and shredded the vote).

Nor have they taken Sedgefield and despite their hopes they have failed to reduce the Conservative share of the vote which instead went up. All the Liberal Democrats achieved here was to rearrange the anti-war vote - their vote increase of 8.0% is less than the 10.3% gained by Reg Keys last time.

How long can Sir Menzies Campbell last as Liberal Democrat leader? Can you hear the Liberal Democrat vultures circling?

Strange encounters in Ealing Southall

When I arrived at Ealing Broadway station today the first person I saw outside was none other than Sir Menzies Campbell! He was walking all by himself with a couple of Liberal Democrat activists following at a distance. I resisted the opportunity to stop and chat to him.

But stranger still was an incident later on when leafleting. I bent down to put a leaflet through a low letter box when I heard someone opening the gate. I turned round to see coming up behind me none other than Mark Oaten!

Fortunately I didn't shit myself.

Ming stops delivering

At the Liberal Democrat campaign office in the Ealing Southall by-election, the three photocopiers are named "Dave", "Gordon" and "Ming". Only one of the three is not performing properly.

You've guessed it - the useless one is Ming!

Thanks to Telegraph Blogs: Little and Large - Ming conks out for the story.

Ming - in his dreams!

Thanks to Iain Dale's Diary: Unfortunate TV News Captions: No 94 for this gem:

So what do others reckon?

"Fantastic! 10!"

"Rubbish! 0!"

Liberal Democrats search in vain

One of the searches that has brought people to my blog is:

ming campbell future

If they're having to resort to Google they must know the game is up!

Liberal Democrat *leaders* in trouble

The Liberal Democrats have officially denied that Sir Menzies Campbell's leadership is under threat. (BBC News: Lib Dem leadership threat denied) Clearly they've not been watching Yes Minister: "First rule of politics: Never believe anything until it's been officially denied." But Liberal Democrats turn yellow at the prospect of another leadership contest so will no doubt soldier on with a leader few have confidence in and who is widely ridiculed.

But Ming can take comfort that he is not the only Liberal Democrat leader under fire. Michael German, their leader in the Welsh Assembly, is facing open calls for his resignation from 1/6 of the Assembly party, and it is widely reckoned the discontent involves at least half the grouping. (BBC News: No to coalition, says Lib Dem AM) Peter Black AM has been speaking out publicly (for instance in the ironically titled Speaking out inappropriately), calling not only for the party to reject all talk of keeping in place the rejected Labour administration but also calling for a leadership election. As he himself points out:

The leadership of course forms a integral part of the process he describes and therefore needs to be discussed openly as well. Nevertheless, I could always have taken the other option of secretly and anonymously briefing the media so as to undermine Mike's position. After all that is how the MPs got rid of Charles Kennedy. That, though, is not my style.

The leadership election has yet to be timetabled so it would be wrong to expect other names to declare now. But Peter Black is to be commended for speaking out so publicly at a time when many a Liberal Democrat will be thinking about how to get their arses on ministerial limo seats.

Dissent is growing (see for instance Aberavon & Neath Liberal Democrats: Peter Black AM: Speaking out inappropriately) and it's been noticed elsewhere. As put in Blamerbell Briefs: Auf Wiedersehen Mike:

As you can tell from the numbers above, the Lib Dems only have six assembly members. Three of them are agitating for a change of leader, one of them is keeping quiet (because she's the person they are agitating on behalf), another is staying loyal to Mike German and the last one is Mike German. If that's an endorsement, it's ringing about as loudly as a lonely castanet.

German has also received the worst endorsement any Liberal Democrat can get - the support of Lembit Öpik. (Peter Black AM: The curse of Lembit) But it's not plain sailing for Lembit either. As one comment on Black's blog puts it:

I think a lot of us are fed up to the back teeth with 'Mr. Celebrity'. He seems to be trying to carve a position for himself as being some kind of elder statesman of the Party without ever having done anything to merit anywhere near that. IMPO his position is something that needs to be discussed by the Lib Dems in Wales as to why we did not move forward in this election.

Every time I see him on the TV, hear him on the radio or read about him in the newspaper I turn over, turn off or turn the page.

So once again the Liberal Democrats have done what seems to be the one thing they do well. Fight each other.

Does anyone want to place bets as to who will last longer - Campbell or German?

Are the Lib Dems facing their final point?

You've got to hand it to the Liberal Democrats. Despite over a year of being allegedly led by Ming the Meaningless it seems that their eventual destruction is rooted in the Kennedy era. Charles Kennedy himself has not exactly been totally denying the possibility of a return to the leadership, but given the circumstances one has to wonder whether he has the judgement to lead a party, let alone present himself to the public pretending to be a potential Prime Minister.

Kerron Cross has details of how the Lib Dems are facing the disaster of not only having to repay a £2.4 million donation from Majorca based businessman Michael Brown (who famously declared that the party were "Muppets" for getting rid of Charles Kennedy) but also have to pay another £2.4 million fine. (KERRON CROSS - The Voice of The Delectable Left: Lib Dems To Go Bankrupt Due To Dodgy Donations? See also Scotsman.com News: Lib Dems face ruin over £4m 'fine') With the party already £1 million in the red it does not have an easy £4.8 million to spare. Individual members could end up having to pay between £50 and £60 each.

In a way this is good news for Ming Campbell though. As well as helping to further discredit the possibility of a Kennedy comeback, it also makes yet another leadership election financially undesirable for the Lib Dems. So his gain is the party's loss. But the party remains in a mess and no court is going to fall for a Lib Dem bar chart "proving" they can't pay.

Once again the Lib Dems' sums don't add up. Kerron says it best:

...it would be rather amusing that the Lib Dems would now be both economically and morally bankrupt.

Well it couldn't happen to a nicer party...

Indeed.

Isn't Rory Bremner fantastic?

Courtesy of YouTube, one of the best Rory Bremner sketches of recent times:

A year of Ming Campbell

Today Sir Menzies Campbell celebrates one year since being winning the Liberal Democrat leadership election. And if his party, having its spring conference, isn't regretting the choice then they must be blind to political reality even by Liberal Democrat standards.

The latest opinion poll shows that just 6% of the public think Ming would make the best Prime Minister. (BBC News: Voters want Kennedy back - poll) But there's even worse news.

49% of those questioned thought [Charles Kennedy] would be a better leader than Sir Menzies Campbell - who polled 22% in the ICM survey of 1,005 people.

Liberal Democrats I've spoken to recently have been dismissive of the idea that Kennedy can come back. They seem to think he lost credibility when his party stabbed him the chest. (He wasn't the future ever!) Perhaps they're right - but it wasn't only Kennedy who came out of the affair badly.

I wouldn't be surprised if many are now regretting the events of last year, even if they are putting on a brave face. Privately many are no doubt hoping for the chance to break out in song (to the tune of "Bring back my grant cheque to me"):

Bring back,
Bring back,
Bring back Char-lie Ken-ne-dey!

But do any of them have the courage to do so during their current conference?

Lies and the Lying Lib Dems who tell them: A fair and balanced look at the Mingers

With apologies to Al Franken.

Last Saturday I was out on the doorstep campaigning for the Conservatives in a by-election in the East Barnet ward. Despite being a two-horse race between the Conservatives and Labour, the local Lib Dems seemed to think they had a chance. And all the usual Lib Dem lies came out on their leaflets.

First there's the usual bar chart using some very dodgey figures to prove another challenging party "Can't win here". On this occasion the figures were the "Change in votes in the Chipping Barnet Constituency 2005-2006" - an utterly meaningless comparison in the first place (between Westminster and Council elections) and not relevant figures for the ward itself.

Then there was the usual attempt to portray the Lib Dem candidate as "a local champion" and "local choice", completely ignoring the fact that until last May he was a councilor in another ward many miles away. Then the voters decided he wasn't the local choice there either. After that he declared in a leaflet to residents that he would never leave that area.

Then the Lib Dems shed their attempt to portray themselves as a nice, cuddly party that doesn't engage in "tribal politics" when they called local Conservative councilors "despicable". As the local paper said "Negative campaigning is still alive and well" and "Neither Labour not the Lib Dems have mentioned the positive effect of CCTV and Safer Neighbourhood Teams." (Barnet Times 18 Jan 2007)

There was also the spectacle of the Lib Dems putting out leaflets in colours traditionally associated with both Conservatives and Labour, no doubt because they've realised voters can see through the rubbish on yellow. But voters can see through it, no matter what colour the Lib Dems print it on.

If Sir Menzies Campbell is to make any lasting impact on the Lib Dems during his brief leadership, he could do no worse than to take a stand against the nasty tactics of local Lib Dem campaigners. Or else he could end the pretence of the national party to be something it isn't. There is a reason why both Labour and Conservative activists can get on well with one another, but find Lib Dems unbearable.

And the result? In this two horse race the Lib Dems came third.

Conservatives - 1666
Labour - 1025
Lib Dems -552
Green - 147

More details can be found on the blogs of Cllr Robert Rams' Blog and Hunter and Shooter.

Lib Dem deja vu

The leader of the Liberal Democrats has started the year declaring that he will be staying in position, whilst anonymous MPs are criticising him. (BBC News: Sir Menzies warns off his critics) Haven't we heard this all before?

From Yesterday's Party to Tomorrow's Party

It really hasn't been the Liberal Democrats' year, has it? They started by brutally stabbing their leader in the chest, have had so many scandals surrounding leading figures that I've lost count and have since staggered about under their new leader, with many openly questioning whether they made the right choice and invariable speculation about a Kennedy restoration, whilst the party tries to find a direction and only gets the occasional good cheer from nasty, vicious, hypocritical local campaigning that had even some of their own ashamed of their campaign.

Now comes the news that three of their candidates from the last general election have joined the Conservatives. (BBC News: Lib Dem trio become Conservatives) Now the Lib Dems will try to write these three off as insignificant individuals. But amongst them is Richard Porter, who authored the Lib Dems' 2005 manifesto for the LGBT community. So do the Lib Dems consider LGBT issues to be insignificant or are they lying?

The comments by the three no doubt say a lot for many still within the Liberal Democrats:

'[Richard Porter] described Lib Dem leader Menzies Campbell as a "has-been" who had put the party "in reverse gear".'

'Tariq Mahmood [said] ... the Tories "could make the NHS better". '

'John Barstow, a union steward, said his former party were "bland, formulaic and out of touch with real life".'

I'd like to welcome them all to the party and invite all Liberal Democrats who wish to be part of the real alternative to Labour to come aboard.

"Will you join my sinking ship?"

In the latest desperate attempt to stabilise what he calls his leadership, Sir Menzies Campbell has publicly invited Charles Kennedy to come back to the Liberal Democrat frontbench. He could not be more transparent if he tried. With Campbell's leadership faltering and so many looking for a Kennedy restoration this is a blatant attempt to take destroy Kennedy by taking him down with him. Now let's see if Kennedy will fall for this and board sinking ship.