Another Liberal Democrat (deputy) leadership election

Thanks to Vincent Cable, the political world gets to enjoy yet another Liberal Democrat (deputy) leadership election. The wider world is, I'm sure, equally fascinated - remember John Prescott's comments last time?

First, let me welcome the hon. Gentleman to his role as acting deputy leader. We all know that the election will take place after today, and I wish him well. The matter is riveting the nation's attention—in fact, on my visit to Hull last weekend they talked of nothing else in the pubs.

(Hansard)

Cable has said he's standing down from the post purely because of the time commitments, but it's also notable that as the position is elected by the MPs it is the nearest to an equivalent of the Conservative Chair of the 1922 Committee or the Chair of the Parliamentary Labour Party and thus the best way Liberal Democrat MPs can represent their views to the leadership. And it's hard to do that when the post is held by a Cabinet Minister. So could the new deputy be someone outside the government - maybe this is finally the moment for Simon Hughes? Alternatively the post might offer the chance for a big name to make a comeback - would it be beneath Charles Kennedy or Sir Menzies Campbell to stand?

The election will take place on June 9th so for the moment it could be the most interesting show in town. Anyone care to predict the dark horse candidate?

To boldy go where Neil Hamilton has gone before?

I have now had a chance to catch up with last Friday's Have I Got News For You where one of the contestants was none other than Lembit Öpik, fresh from having lost his Montgomeryshire seat.

One of the cruelties of British politics is the way election results are declared, with the politicians there for all to see. On Election Night it was saddening to watch Jacqui Smith as her defeat was announced. I didn't catch Lembit's defeat but it can't have been great for him. But to go on Have I Got News For You and endure numerous taunts about his defeat is going beyond it all. Lembit looked uncomfortable at times but still took it well.

It reminds me of a previous ex MP going on Have I Got News For You soon after their defeat. Neil Hamilton made a memorable appearance back in 1997 and came out with the wonderful soundbite "I've found it's much better making political jokes than being one." He finished the show by accepting his fee. Naturally it was paid in cash in a brown envelope. But from that show Neil, and his Christine who also appeared, have carved out new careers as media celebrities.

Lembit Öpik is, of course, no stranger to appearing all over the media - of his party only Charles Kennedy seems to have appeared more. But now that Lembit is out of parliament will he take his career in this direction? It could be quite lucrative for him and he is genuinely funny. It could bring years of reward for him and entertainment for the rest of us.

Unless of course we're suddenly all wiped out by an asteroid.

Vincent Cable you're no Lembit Öpik!

Have I Got News For You this week was fun with Tom Baker hosting and he was as mad as ever. He was, however, a little more presentable than the one time I saw him in the flesh - one day about eight years ago I was at Charing Cross station and saw him walking across the concourse in a macintosh looking like a flasher on the prowl!

But also of note was one of the guests - none other than the Liberal Democrats' very own Mr Excitement, Vincent Cable.

Now Cable has been in vogue in the last year, first stunning the world with a joke (although given his reputation as rather dull it was stunning in itself that he could deliver one) and talking a lot about the economy at a crucial time. But he hasn't got the self-mocking likeable chap style that other politicians who've been on Have I Got News For You have and it showed with him being way too serious at times. He certainly doesn't have the certain something that Charles Kennedy has, and that wasn't just developed through a billion appearances on C-list celebrity shows.

And of course there's another Liberal Democrat who's been media whoring and it's one of the few things he does well. Lembit Öpik may be a political joke, and a cheeky one at that, but when it comes to comedy appearances he more than has what it takes.

Mr Cable I watched Lembit Öpik. I laughed at Lembit Öpik. Lembit Öpik was a favourite of mine. Mr Cable you're no Lembit Öpik.

Do the Lib Dems need a real leader at all?

Not some Liberal Democrats it seems! Nick Assinder relays an anecdote from Charles Kennedy himself (BBC News: Commons Confidential: December 2007) about how he once made a surprise visit to a constituency, only to find that the candidate didn't need him for an obligatory joint photo.

The unnamed candidate had instead resorted to other means - by using a photo of himself with the Madame Tussauds waxwork of Kennedy.

So do the Lib Dems really need a living leader? They could always just get an immobile lifeless object to stand in instead.

Are the Lib Dems facing their final point?

You've got to hand it to the Liberal Democrats. Despite over a year of being allegedly led by Ming the Meaningless it seems that their eventual destruction is rooted in the Kennedy era. Charles Kennedy himself has not exactly been totally denying the possibility of a return to the leadership, but given the circumstances one has to wonder whether he has the judgement to lead a party, let alone present himself to the public pretending to be a potential Prime Minister.

Kerron Cross has details of how the Lib Dems are facing the disaster of not only having to repay a £2.4 million donation from Majorca based businessman Michael Brown (who famously declared that the party were "Muppets" for getting rid of Charles Kennedy) but also have to pay another £2.4 million fine. (KERRON CROSS - The Voice of The Delectable Left: Lib Dems To Go Bankrupt Due To Dodgy Donations? See also Scotsman.com News: Lib Dems face ruin over £4m 'fine') With the party already £1 million in the red it does not have an easy £4.8 million to spare. Individual members could end up having to pay between £50 and £60 each.

In a way this is good news for Ming Campbell though. As well as helping to further discredit the possibility of a Kennedy comeback, it also makes yet another leadership election financially undesirable for the Lib Dems. So his gain is the party's loss. But the party remains in a mess and no court is going to fall for a Lib Dem bar chart "proving" they can't pay.

Once again the Lib Dems' sums don't add up. Kerron says it best:

...it would be rather amusing that the Lib Dems would now be both economically and morally bankrupt.

Well it couldn't happen to a nicer party...

Indeed.

A year of Ming Campbell

Today Sir Menzies Campbell celebrates one year since being winning the Liberal Democrat leadership election. And if his party, having its spring conference, isn't regretting the choice then they must be blind to political reality even by Liberal Democrat standards.

The latest opinion poll shows that just 6% of the public think Ming would make the best Prime Minister. (BBC News: Voters want Kennedy back - poll) But there's even worse news.

49% of those questioned thought [Charles Kennedy] would be a better leader than Sir Menzies Campbell - who polled 22% in the ICM survey of 1,005 people.

Liberal Democrats I've spoken to recently have been dismissive of the idea that Kennedy can come back. They seem to think he lost credibility when his party stabbed him the chest. (He wasn't the future ever!) Perhaps they're right - but it wasn't only Kennedy who came out of the affair badly.

I wouldn't be surprised if many are now regretting the events of last year, even if they are putting on a brave face. Privately many are no doubt hoping for the chance to break out in song (to the tune of "Bring back my grant cheque to me"):

Bring back,
Bring back,
Bring back Char-lie Ken-ne-dey!

But do any of them have the courage to do so during their current conference?

From Yesterday's Party to Tomorrow's Party

It really hasn't been the Liberal Democrats' year, has it? They started by brutally stabbing their leader in the chest, have had so many scandals surrounding leading figures that I've lost count and have since staggered about under their new leader, with many openly questioning whether they made the right choice and invariable speculation about a Kennedy restoration, whilst the party tries to find a direction and only gets the occasional good cheer from nasty, vicious, hypocritical local campaigning that had even some of their own ashamed of their campaign.

Now comes the news that three of their candidates from the last general election have joined the Conservatives. (BBC News: Lib Dem trio become Conservatives) Now the Lib Dems will try to write these three off as insignificant individuals. But amongst them is Richard Porter, who authored the Lib Dems' 2005 manifesto for the LGBT community. So do the Lib Dems consider LGBT issues to be insignificant or are they lying?

The comments by the three no doubt say a lot for many still within the Liberal Democrats:

'[Richard Porter] described Lib Dem leader Menzies Campbell as a "has-been" who had put the party "in reverse gear".'

'Tariq Mahmood [said] ... the Tories "could make the NHS better". '

'John Barstow, a union steward, said his former party were "bland, formulaic and out of touch with real life".'

I'd like to welcome them all to the party and invite all Liberal Democrats who wish to be part of the real alternative to Labour to come aboard.

Is this the beginning of Blair's Charles Kennedy moment?

There have been seven resignations from the government over Tony Blair's refusal to set a date for when he is going. This follows the round robin letter of "normally loyal" MPs calling for him to end the uncertainty. Finally someone in the Labour Party has found the will to admit what everyone has known for ages.

At the start of the year Charles Kennedy faced umpteen internal demands for an end to the drift and his failure to deal the problem resulted in the escalation that eventually led to his public brutal overthrowal. Kennedy tried dismissing his critics as disloyal and pretending the problem was small - and his critics proved him wrong by getting louder and more and more public. Now Tony Blair seems to be going down a very similar route. How long will it be before the next resignation?

"Will you join my sinking ship?"

In the latest desperate attempt to stabilise what he calls his leadership, Sir Menzies Campbell has publicly invited Charles Kennedy to come back to the Liberal Democrat frontbench. He could not be more transparent if he tried. With Campbell's leadership faltering and so many looking for a Kennedy restoration this is a blatant attempt to take destroy Kennedy by taking him down with him. Now let's see if Kennedy will fall for this and board sinking ship.

Never believe something until it's been officially denied?

Charles Kennedy has denied reports that he is planning to challenge for his party's leadership again. The old adage of never believing something until it has been officially denied seems very apt. Ever since he was stabbed in the chest, Lib Dems have been wondering if this was a mistake. And Kennedy has certainly dropped hints that he would like the members to be able to consider him, whilst reminding the world he is still about and is even being lined up to head the Lib Dem campaign for the Scottish Parliament. With so much speculation about Ming Campbell's future due to a constant stream of disaster with things getting worse, surely the time is coming for the Lib Dems' "king over the water" to come back and smite the Campbells?

Also in the news is a reminder that Friday was the eighteenth anniversary of the election of Paddy Ashdown as leader. Ashdown has the dubious distinction of having been the only Lib Dem leader to offer his party a sense of direction and leadership. And he's only three months older than Campbell. The Lib Dems must all be kicking themselves that he's no longer their leader.

So just who is in charge of the Lib Dems?

FibDems asks "Has anyone seen their leader?" It seems the Scottish Lib Dems have been subtley distancing themselves from Sir Menzies Campbell and are even looking to Charles Kennedy to head their campaign for the 2007 Scottish Parliament elections.

The first evidence is a modification to the Scottish Lib Dems' website that was made yesterday, removing the detail that the federal party is "led by Sir Menzies Campbell MP". One has to wonder why - it's hardly as if the page needs the space. Does Nicol Stephen not wish to be promoted with Campbell if he can help it?

And if Kennedy is to be used in the campaign is this another step on his route back to the leadership? He's hardly played down attempts to cast him as "the king over the water". And of course another king over the water fought against the Campbells...

Kennedy 1 Journalists 0

Nick Assinder reports on the way Charles Kennedy took a small piece of revenge on the media for the destruction of his leadership. He was due to be campaigning in the Bromley & Chislehurst by-election and journalists flocked to the seat to see him in action, not least because of his recent comments suggesting a comeback but was unable to make it after attending a family function in Surrey and getting stuck in traffic.

As a substitute Vincent Cable stepped in. The journalists must have been jumping for joy.

As noted in a comment on this blog, Charles Kennedy is due to be on the Question Time panel tomorrow, as the first major step towards rebuilding his political career. It's certainly a better start than Have I Got News For You and we'll see how far the comeback goes. Iain Dale is sceptical due to reports on Kennedy's health, but still groundwork could be laid. If Kennedy can give a better performance than Ming Campbell gave last month he will leave a lot of Lib Dem members renewing the questions about whether getting rid of Kennedy was a good move.

The comeback Kennedy?

Yellow Peril has noticed this story about Charles Kennedy on a visit to Devon. Amongst the comments he made was this:

I would have liked to contest the leadership election, because there is now a question mark in the air which members could have decided, had my name been on the ballot paper.

Hmm... a question mark over the incumbent (who has had no end of problems) and a sense of still being popular with the membership. The Lib Dems are desperately searching for a leader - could the answer be staring them in the past?

Even Charles Kennedy lasted longer!

Sir Menzies Campbell's problems are continuing to grow. And there's not much comfort in the blogosphere.

Campbell's performance at Prime Ministers' Questions this week was poor, as shown in Guido Fawkes' Action Replay : Ming the Meandering Mumbler which shows the reaction of senior Liberal Democrats such as Vincent Cable as Campbell struggles to make a point and needs to check his notes to identify the department he has a problem with.

Amongst the bloggers comenting, Skipper wonders "Oh Dear! Was Ming a Mistake?" whilst The Exile ponders "Is Ming a mong?". A Place to Stand reports how "Ming Campbell is proving a disaster for the LibDems" and Kevin Davis relays "Lib Dems are now privately convinced they will have new leader within a year". A Tangled Web wants to know "just what are the Liberal Democrats FOR, exactly?" whilst noting "KNIVES ARE OUT FOR MING".

The reaction from Lib Dem bloggers is mixed. Peter Black AM expresses his dismay at the turn of events even though "I was unhappy with the result of the leadership election and I have not been too impressed with what I have seen so far". Richard Huzzey offers not a staunch defence of Campbell's leadership so far but pleads "Give Ming A Chance", a call echoed by A Liberal Goes A Long Way who suggests:

And while I'm on one, can someone please gaffer tape Simon Hughes' mouth shut until he's learned how not to fan the flames of a non-story? He must have known that saying "we need to judge [Ming] when it comes to conference after six months rather than after a few weeks," would provoke the inevitable headline in today's Indy, Hughes tells Campbell: 'You must do better by Lib-Dem conference'.

So who could replace Campbell?

The events of the last leadership contest have frankly ruled out both Mark Oaten and Simon Hughes' chances for a long time. The revelations about both men have been hard for many Lib Dems to respond to, whilst the local elections were especially disappointing for the Lib Dems in both Winchester and Southwark, suggesting that the voters have not responded well to either man.

The one senior Liberal Democrat to have come out of the last six months with their reputation considerably enhanced is Chris Huhne, unknown before January. Coming from nowhere to take second place in the contest, and at times leading in both opinion polls and bookies' odds, Huhne demonstrated an ability to tap into the desire of many Lib Dems for radicalism and tried to claim the mantle on environmentalism. But can he do so well in a second contest? And if the leader is changed with only one candidate, what will be the reaction of party members, already facing the prospect of having to repay the party's massive debts?

Or what about the younger generation of the party? One candidate who has in the past announced that he would stand for the leadership the next time it becomes vacant is Lembit Öpik. But was he really considering one so soon? And given his ability to bring disaster to every campaign he backs, can he really buck the trend for himself?

What about a female leader? However there's only one female Lib Dem with a regular media presence and that's Sarah Teather. Barely half the age of Campbell (and younger than David Cameron) she would truly be a bold move. However there's a real possibility that she may not even be an MP after the next election - boundary changes are abolishing her Brent East seat and the replacement Brent Central seat looks likely to be a notional Labour seat.

There's one intriguing possibility. As discussed on this blog before, one can legitimately ask if the Lib Dems did the right thing when they brutally deposed Charles Kennedy. Could the fall of Ming lead to an opening for Kennedy to return?

Or could the Lib Dems modify their rules to allow a leader outside the Commons, at least in the short term? Someone who is unamiguously a caretaker would allow them time to sort out the party's direction and find a permanent long term successor. So could Paddy Ashdown be the veteran they need back?

Whoever becomes the next Lib Dem leader will need to get a lot of things in order. The recent fiasco with the party facing having to raise £2.4 million from its members shows the mess the party structure is in, and the leader will need to ensure that no more backroom cock-ups occur.

They will also need to inspire the even younger generation of Liberal Democrats and convince them to stay in the party when the Conservatives are performing so well and reclaiming the legacy of the classic Liberal Party (inherited in part via the Liberal Unionists and later National Liberals along with many individual recruits over the years). If the Lib Dems thought they were facing their greatest crisis in January, they may have been premature.

So who do readers of this blog reckon will be Lib Dem leader come Christmas?

So was getting rid of Charles Kennedy a good move?

BBC News are covering the "mixed results" for the Lib Dems. In what was billed as the first test of Sir Menzies Campbell's leadership they "consolidated" their position rather than making spectacular gains. In London they lost control of Islington and are now confined to their south west London heartlands. Elsewhere they didn't get spectacular results. Campbell himself has tried to dismiss claims he was "on test":

This wasn't a test for me; it was a test for the party after the difficulties of the earlier part of this year. I think we have come through this test.

So the Lib Dems are just standing still. Considering the predictions of annihilation that abounded in the days after they stabbed Charles Kennedy in the chest it's hard not to see this as an improvement. But would they have done better with Kennedy in the helm? Was forcing him out really an improvement for the party? Has Campbell really "raised his game"?

We don't see very much of Charles Kennedy in the media these days - when is he going to come back to the Liberal Democrats' frontbench team?

Is this the end of the Liberal Democrats?

Thanks to Ridiculous Politics for highlighting this story.

The Lib Dems could now be facing bankruptcy. A former key donor has been arrested on charges including fraud and it's possible that his past donations may be ruled in breach of current party funding law.

Currently no-one can make an individual donation to a political party if they are not on the electoral roll. Despite this Michael Brown made donations of £2.4 million to the Liberal Democrats through an entity called 5th Avenue Partners. If the Electoral Commission rules that this entity was not "carrying on business" in the United Kingdom then the Lib Dems will have to repay all the money. This could send them into financial bankruptcy.

Before the current arrest, but when his donation was still under investigation, Menzies Campbell defended taking money from the controversial ex-pat businessman. Asked if he would take the money knowing when had been thrown up about his business dealings in October 2005, Sir Ming said on Channel 4: 'Well, now everything is out in the open, then the answer is probably yes. Why not? As far as I know, there is no intention to give the money back.'

How the Lib Dems can afford to repay all the money is unclear. And it's doubtful that Michael Brown will be willing to register to vote in the UK and donate them more money. His support for the party was based on his regard for Charles Kennedy but not for "the muppets who purport to serve him" and he was not happy when Kennedy was stabbed in the chest by them. So they may have to look elsewhere.

Could this be the straw that breaks the camel's back and brings the Liberal Democrats to extinction? Now that Kennedy's leadership is no more, what will "the muppets" do?

Twenty five years ago today...

The "Gang of Four" broke away from the Labour Party to found the Social Democratic Party, pledging to "break the mould of British politics".

Twenty five years on and what's changed? The SDP failed to make a breakthrough and eventually merged with the Liberals. Meanwhile those on the right of the Labour Party who did not defect instead stayed in the party and eventually defeated the hard left. Today it is New Labour that is the heir to the SDP.

Meanwhile nominations for the Liberal Democrat leadership election have closed today and we have three candidates remaining - Sir Menzies Campbell, Chris Huhne and Simon Hughes. Whoever wins is facing one of the biggest crises of the party's history. And given the fates of Charles Kennedy and Mark Oaten, all three must be desperately hoping they don't get Lembit Opik's backing. The party is declining in the polls, it has privately given up on the Dunfermline and West Fife by-election and it is facing the potential defection of three MPs. So much for the party being on the verge of heading towards government!

Spotted on eBay

This may have been taken down by the time you read this, but on eBay at the moment is "A list of Liberal Democrat MPs who gave their names to the press when they knifed Charles Kennedy."

The full description reads:

Here it is, I am selling a list of all the Liberal democrat MPs who had the guts to give their names when they were telling the newspapers about Charles Kennedy's drink problem. You might think it is a blank sheet of A4 paper, as that is what it looks like. Strange, eh?

Soon I will be selling a document which says how much every other Liberal Democrat MP drinks, just as soon as I can get enough paper.

He wasn't the future ever!

In an act of denial not seen since the Iraqi Information Minister went off the air, Charles Kennedy continues to deny his leadership is ending despite nearly half his MPs threatening to resign if he doesn't go. The Liberal Democrats have shown exactly what they think about Kennedy's idea of putting things right in a "referendum on booze" but have failed to dislodge him yet.

Looking through some of the old stories highlighted by the BBC there's this one from just after the General Election when Charles Kennedy was claiming the Lib Dems were the "party of the future". As with many Charles Kennedy statements it was utterly ludicrous. The Lib Dems failed to take most of their high profile targets despite much talk about being the "real alternative" to Labour and since then have just wandered all over the place.

In 2005 the Liberal Democrats planned a decapitation strategy and failed. Now they are having difficulty at performing the only decapitation they possibly can.

That party is not a "real alternative". It is a right farce.

The end of Charles Kennedy?

So Charles Kennedy has now admitted to drink problems and having treatment for them, after months of denying them. And he's taken the most bizarre step of forcing a leadership election. What the party needs is a debate on its future direction. What it's been given is a referendum on booze.

Once again Charles Kennedy has put his own career over the needs of his party by diverting the focus of its internal debate. His drinking is irrelevant to whether he should be leader. His lying is a different matter. And as a party manager he is a complete disaster.

This looks like the end of the road for him.