Tony Blair - Less popular than...

My thanks to donpaskini: People and things that are more popular than Tony Blair for highlighting post-election analysis (PDF) done by Greenberg Quinlan Rosner Research:

...more people who voted in the 2010 election had negative views of Tony Blair than of Gordon Brown, either Miliband brother, Ed Balls, the European Union, the Labour Party, immigration, Israel or Palestine.

How the once all conquering popular do fall.

So when's the next resignation?

I have just heard the news of Peter Mandelson potentially returning to the Cabinet. (Evening Standard: Mandelson is poised for amazing Cabinet return) Of all the moves that Gordon Brown could have made this is one I don't think anyone could have predicted. Who would have thought he'd want to get back together with him?

Does this mean Gordon Brown is hoping to complete Tony Blair's project and make the Labour Party "learn to love Peter Mandelson"? I am somewhat sceptical of success, though the Prince of Darkness will not be as close to the Prime Minister this time as in the past.

Of course this will mean Peter Mandelson has to resign for the third time in a decade, although for once for political reasons rather than sleaze, but he proved one of the most resignation prone of Blair's ministers. How long will he last this time round?

Seals of Office

Quite a few in the media have spoken of how Tony Blair is supposed to return the Seals of Office, but that there aren't any seals for the Prime Minister. If I remember correctly this is because in legislation the premiership is technically a position not an office.

However aren't there seals for the First Lord of the Treasury? That is an office.

Goodbye Blair

And so it's the end of the Blair premiership.

Given all the comparisons with the end of the Thatcher years, I wanted to put up an appropriate Spitting Image clip from YouTube, but I can't load the site right now.

I noticed Cherie Blair shouting "I won't miss you" as she boarded the car. And the country won't miss her either.

Embarrassing things to say at Prime Minister's Questions #94

The first Labour MP to speak mentioned Blair's campaigning "against anti-racism".

But somehow I doubt this will go down there with George (H.W.) Bush's comments that he stood for "anti-sexism, anti-racism & anti-semitism".

The best thing Tony Blair has ever done

Sadly we've got another few weeks of him but the end is finally in sight. (BBC News: Blair will stand down on 27 June)

Everyone is scrambling to write the political obituaries and finding the same question - just what are Blair's achievements as Prime Minister?

Now a lot will rush and say "independence for the Bank of England" and "years of a strong economy", but I question whether these are Blair's achievements rather than Gordon Brown's. Scottish devolution? I would credit that to Donald Dewar. Indeed many of these supposed achievements seem to originated elsewhere from Downing Street.

The obvious exception is peace in Northern Ireland. Whilst others played their part (and have been rightly rewarded), it cannot be denied that the time Blair invested in the peace process (the area of government policy he gave more attention to than any other) has been essential for pushing the process forward.

And the other achievement is political. Blair transformed the Labour Party into a strong fighting force. He also destroyed the complacency that had built up in the Conservative Party. Indeed many of the changes made to the party in the last few years have been in direct response to the impact of New Labour. Ironically in the long run Blair's true political legacy may scarily be closer to the Conservative Party than the Labour Party.

And of course there have been failures. But rather than list them all, let's stick to just one - his own definition:

"My project will be complete when my party learns to love Peter Mandelson."

So he leaves with the project unfulfilled...

Small invasion - no-one hurt

There must be frustration in both Washington and London this weekend as the opportunity to restore faith in military action by liberating a small country invaded by its larger neighbour rapidly evaded the need for outside intervention.

About 170 Swiss soldiers crossed the border into Liechtenstein and wandered for about a mile before realising their mistake and turning back. (Liechtenstein: no retaliation for Swiss 'invasion') Since Liechtenstein has no army, it could have been easily taken, but authorities on both sides seem eager to play down the significance.

This means that the chance for Tony Blair and George W. Bush to have a final military adventure that could be easily justified (who would seriously object to undoing an invasion?), or for The Sun to run every single stereotype of the Swiss imaginable, has proved elusive.

So it's a smoking email

Following on from my earlier post (What are Labour scared of?) a few more details have officially emerged. (BBC News:
No 10 e-mail basis of injunction)

An internal Downing Street e-mail between two members of Tony Blair's inner circle is at the centre of an injunction against the BBC.

And pictures of Ruth Turner and Lord Levy have been appearing and disappearing from news stories and blog posts all day.

The blogosphere is dropping numerous hints then hiding them. Dare I write anything further?

Prime Ministerial legacies

Paul Burgin has a post wondering why Margaret Thatcher has been given a statue in the Commons whilst still alive (Mars Hill: The Statue) and briefly commenting on her and other Prime Ministers' legacies.

Thinking back over the past hundred years, it's quite rare for a former Prime Minister to have had a politically good post premiership. Arthur Balfour had a very successful subsequent ministerial career - indeed so successful it's possible to remember him whilst forgetting he was ever Prime Minister - whilst Alec Douglas-Home proved a benign elder statesmen in Ted Heath's Cabinet. But Ramsay MacDonald's time as Lord President of the Council proved cruel to all involved, including him. And Neville Chamberlain was blighted by his health and a constant campaign to remove him from office that devastated his legacy. Indeed it's only been since I started my PhD that I've come to realise just how narrow a view is held of Chamberlain - even many sympathetic biographies turn him into almost a one policy area Prime Minister.

No other twentieth century Prime Minister subsequently sevred in another office, unless one counts Stanley Baldwin's time as Lord President of the Council between his second and third premiership. But Baldwin was still at the height of his powers and returned to Number 10, to retire on a high. Indeed Baldwin's retirement was expected for months (and his successor was unanimously clear) and he managed to leave Downing Street with a higher standing than any of his successors. Tony Blair must be kicking himself. But Baldwin's reputation came to grief before he died - during the war his reputation was tarnished in the row over the country's preparations for war. It has only been in the last forty years that his reputation has been steadily restored.

Others have been hampered by health (Henry Campbell-Bannerman, Andrew Bonar Law, Harold Wilson) and either died very soon or dropped out of public life almost immediately. Some floated around for so long that when they died it was a surprise it had not happened earlier (Lord Roseberry lived for 34 years until 1929). Others had to watch as their political legacy was dismantled and even their own party turned on their government's legacy (Harold Macmillan, Edward Heath, Jim Callaghan, Margaret Thatcher, John Major). Some have been respectfully quiet about this, but the actions of Heath and Thatcher in bitterly attacking their successors have brought no credit to them. The legacy of the war preserved Churchill's reputation, even though his peacetime government was an example of a man clinging to office long after he was no longer competent, whilst Clement Attlee died before the backlash against his legacy. Conversely whilst the legacy of Herbert Asquith's government remained in place his own reputation for indecisiveness, the circumstances of his downfall and the subsequent split and destruction of his party meant that he did not die in glory.

What will Tony Blair's legacy be like once he's into the period of lectures and memoirs? Well the observant amongst you will have noticed there are two Prime Ministers I haven't yet mentioned - Anthony Eden and David Lloyd George. Frankly it's hard to think of anything positive to say about Eden's premiership - by the summer of 1956 he was increasingly discredited. And of course it ended in disaster when he launched an attack on an Arab country to domestic and international disapproval. Hardly anyone has managed to justify the Suez Crisis and it increasingly seems that the Iraq War will be remembered equally disastrously.

And then there's the Prime Minister who broke his party, sold honours and ended his days with virtually no-one in politics supporting him. Tony Blair has long said that his political hero is Lloyd George but Blair is hardly the dashing young radical or a country's saviour in time of national crisis. However he has certainly emulated many of the worst features of the Goat (but before anyone suggests anything, I have heard nothing about Blair giving tours of ceilings). With every new revelation about Loans for Lordships, Blair looks more and more tainted, just like his hero.

And what other legacy has Blair got? Most of the changes that have happened under his government can't really be attributed to either him personally or his leadership. He did not received the Nobel Prize for the Northern Ireland Peace Process, whilst Mo Mowlam has always received the credit for the government's contribution. Donald Dewar is remembered as the deliverer of Scottish devolution. And the public services have been shaken up so many times that it seems all that's been achieved is to pour lots of money in and charge the public more. (And in any case with a dominant Chancellor of the Exchequer it's going to be difficult to extract credit for Blair rather than Gordon Brown.) Nor does anyone talk about "Cool Britannia" anymore.

Tony Blair has spent years claiming he is a man of substance not style. But his legacy is a mixture of bad substance or style gone wrong. Which would he prefer to be remembered for?

Who cares about someone's past?

It must be a slow news day as the media are making another fuss about David Cameron and drugs. (BBC News: Cameron defiant over drug claims) Frankly who cares?

A lot of people have made mistakes in their past and paid the price for it at the time. Why should they have to keep on paying years later?

And when is the media going to put Tony Blair under this kind of pressure? He's never answered the question and few would be surprised if he had.

Mind you, the real shock would be if Gordon Brown admitted to it. Somehow I can't imagine him having been interesting!

Tony Blair: "My party is behind me"

This quote has spawned posts of images by both Iain Dale and James Cleverly. I think James's is the best:

See also: James Cleverly: "My party is behind me" and Iain Dale: Blair Tells Humphrys: My Party Is Behind Me.

New twist in Loans for Lordships

An interesting article on BBC News (The Lords suitability question ) has highlighted the otherwise surprisingly overlooked point in the peerage scandal - three of the four Labour loaners nominated by Tony Blair were found to be unsuitable for peerages before the Commission found out about the loans. Meanwhile all six of the other Blair nominees were passed by the Commission.

The commission has two tests for political nominees: were they of good standing in the community, both in general terms and with regard to regulatory agencies; and would their presence in the Lords enhance or diminish the reputation of the Lords.

Is it any coincidence that every single one of the people nominated by Blair and found to be unsuitable was subsequently found to have made loans to the Labour Party? Just where was his character judgement?

And why has this point not received more media attention?

Blair: His past

Thanks to Iain Dale for Blair: What a Difference 23 Years Makes:
Need I say anything?

Is this the beginning of Blair's Charles Kennedy moment?

There have been seven resignations from the government over Tony Blair's refusal to set a date for when he is going. This follows the round robin letter of "normally loyal" MPs calling for him to end the uncertainty. Finally someone in the Labour Party has found the will to admit what everyone has known for ages.

At the start of the year Charles Kennedy faced umpteen internal demands for an end to the drift and his failure to deal the problem resulted in the escalation that eventually led to his public brutal overthrowal. Kennedy tried dismissing his critics as disloyal and pretending the problem was small - and his critics proved him wrong by getting louder and more and more public. Now Tony Blair seems to be going down a very similar route. How long will it be before the next resignation?

So just what is John Prescott for?

Over on BBC News, Nick Assinder asks "What is John Prescott for?" Does anyone truly know? Assinder is far from the first to suggest that if Prescott resigns from the government it may cause a tidal wave in the Labour Party that would make it impossible for Tony Blair to stay.

Would that be such a bad thing? Cherie would find it harder to milk her non-position for money but for everyone else, Blair's loss would be the nation's gain.

The Little Red Book of New Labour Sleaze

For those who haven't seen the announcements by Iain Dale and Guido Fawkes, the two have teamed up to produce The Little Red Book of New Labour Sleaze.This book covers over a hundred examples of New Labour sleaze from the last nine years and has been by fellow bloggers and blog readers everywhere.

In their own words from the press release:

Iain Dale:This is the first time a group of bloggers have come together to write a book. The power of blogging is that it is instantaneous – and that's more or less what this book will be. The blogging community has played a leading part in exposing the lies and hypocrisy of New Labour. By bringing together all their sleaze and scandal into one magnificent tome we aim to demonstrate why Tony Blair heads the sleaziest government in living memory.

Guido Fawkes: New Labour promised to be 'whiter than white', yet during the last 9 years they have averaged a sleazy escapade almost every month. The time is right to compile them all into one handy volume. Getting the blogosphere to come together to write the book will get it produced fast and furiously by diverse new writers.

The Little Red Book of New Labour Sleaze is published on 19 May, price £7.99 and can be ordered from Politicos Bookstore.

Another Charles in the last chance saloon?

Thanks to both Liberal England and Iain Dale for bringing to attention this story in The Sun that states Charles Clarke did not offer Tony Blair his resignation last week. Blair is said to be furious that he has received the blame for not accepting it, when Clarke didn't offer it in the first place!

Bungling Home Secretary Charles Clarke did NOT offer to quit last week over the freed foreign convicts scandal.
He told the BBC he had offered to go — which infuriated Prime Minister Tony Blair.
The PM stormed out of the Commons on Wednesday after being humiliated about his refusal to accept the "phantom" resignation.

Also Clarke apparently kept the news about the lack of deportations from the Prime Minister for three weeks.

Clarke has given an interview to the EPD24 website stating:

At the end of the day, my own political future depends on my own strength of character dealing with the points that are raised, first, secondly on the support of my own political colleagues, and thirdly and most importantly on the decisions of the prime minister.
If I lost that support, that would be different. I hope I will continue as home secretary.

So does he still have that support? I doubt it. A letter accepting Clarke's resignation is bound to be sitting on Blair's desk. When will the letter offering it arrive?

Is this why Blair can't let any more Ministers go?

Iain Dale has posted a list of all the current Ministers of State, in theory the main source for new Cabinet appointments. And it's not a list to write home about:

Douglas Alexander (definite), Rosie Winterton (were it not for...), Yvette Cooper (too much of a Brown ally), Phil Woolas (erratic), Dawn Primarolo (thick), John Healey (boring but nice), Harriet Harman (thick and past failure), Kim Howells (rent a gob), Ian Pearson (no idea), Hazel Blears (unpopular with colleagues), Tony McNulty (hurt by current scandal), Elliot Morley (a permanent number two), Margaret Hodge (you have to be joking), Stephen Timms (boring and ugly), Stephen Ladyman (no idea), Jane Kennedy (no idea), David Hanson (boring), Adam Ingram (too old), Alun Michael (past failure), Malcolm Wicks (too old), Jacqui Smith (not up to it), Bill Rammell (no idea), Beverley Hughes (would have to be desperate), Richard Caborn (not up to it)

So apart from Douglas Alexander (only one person) who could Blair appoint to fill the current Cabinet vacancy and also replace Clarke, Hewitt and maybe also Prescott?

Crisis? What Crisis?

'Tony Blair has robustly defended his three under-fire Cabinet ministers and laughed off claims that he has suffered his own "Black Wednesday".'

Am I the only one reminded of the famous Sun headline about Jim Callaghan's dismissive attitude to major problems?

How much more of this must the country endure?

Iain Dale brings advance news on a Private Eye story showing that the damaging feud between Tony Blair and Old Man Brown is still going on despite attempts to disguise it:

Private Eye reports in its latest issue that Ian Kirby, political editor of the News of the World... was recently called in for an interview with Blair & Brown in an effort for them to demonstrate comradely unity. Kirby duly turned up at Number Ten and was heading for the room they were in when he heard David Hill, Blair's press spokesman say: "Okay, he's coming. Start talking now!" The door opened and, guess what, Kirby found the two talking warmly to each other as if they hadn't a care in the world.

How much more of this must the country endure?