The Lib Dems - Lambs to the slaughter or just Pointless?

The Liberal Democrat leadership election hasn't really taken the country by storm. There hasn't been a particularly bizarre candidate nominated solely in the hope that a thrashing by the members will shut them and their followers up. There hasn't been an unresignation by Nick Clegg. There doesn't seem to have been much debate about actual policy or attempting to determine what is the Liberal Democrat answer to the questions of the day.

In fact all I've really noticed are:

• Norman Lamb has drifted into being the classic candidate for whom nearly every speech could be summed up as "Noun, verb, [Single subject]". Yes mental health is important and yes he was an outstanding minister at the Department of Health, but one almost wants to ask "So Norman, apart from mental health...". Is he just playing one bit of his record or something else? It reminds me a bit of Chris Huhne's leadership bid in 2006 when at times it seemed he was really seeking the Environment portolio (in the days before Climate Change was split off) at least until scandals and performance doubts engulfed all his rivals. But if Lamb wants to be the party's Health spokesperson then surely the post would be his for the asking?
• Tim Farron seems to have spent the campaign alternating between an over-enthusiastic self-righteous type (well he is seeking a post first held by Paddy Ashdown) and going all defensive about his faith and voting record. There are people of faith in all parties but the Lib Dems have a particularly strong secularist tendency that is unforgiving of voting records on certain issues. But also Farron seems to be wriggling on technicalities when his voting record was being brought up as early as 2010 when he first stood for the deputy leadership and then the party presidency.
• For the most part Lamb is backed by ex-ministers and party grandees whilst Farron is mainly backed by MPs who were on the backbenches in the Coalition (including all the ones still in the Commons) and various left-leaning liberals although there are some exceptions in both camps.
• And there was an incident with some Lamb supporters employing "push polling" techniques to spread attacks on Farron to members. Lamb had no awareness of this but as a key criteria for a leader is the ability to keep control of one's supporters it doesn't reflect well on him.

And that's mainly it. But there are some potential jokes for whichever is elected leader. Lamb has already made one about his wife Mary and their children - "Mary had a little Lamb". If he's elected leader then we'll get lots of lamb jokes.

Tim Farron may be either praising or cursing an edition of Pointless from a couple of years ago. One of the rounds was on Lib Dem MPs elected in 2010 and 100 members of the public had one minute to name as many as possible. This unscientific process found that even Vince Cable was named by less than one in five. But many MPs fared worse (I don't know how Lamb did) with Tim Farron being named by nobody at all. Yes Tim Farron was Pointless.

(Being unknown during the Coalition may be an advantage or not. On the one hand they would be a fresh face. On the other hand having rebelled on something unpopular the party did is more useful when people noticed you doing it at the time.)

Soon we'll find out who the new leader is and where they'll try to go.

The problems of the Lib Dems

With the Liberal Democrats declaring their new leader today, it's time to take a look at the mess they're in.

Five years ago, I asked "Nick Clegg - Sir John Simon or Sir Herbert Samuel?" It is now possible to provide an answer. And it is neither, though more Samuel than Simon.

In one regard, Nick Clegg has succeeded incredibly by holding his party together. There were a total of 58 MPs in the last Parliament - 57 elected in 2010 and a replacement in a by-election. At this past general election just one of those MPs stood as a non-Lib Dem - Mike Hancock who was expelled in a scandal and whose re-election bid was unrelated to a coalition split. A scandal also accounted for the only Lib Dem MP to resign mid-Parliament, Chris Huhne. Ten MPs stood down at the election, mostly long standing and/or elderly members, though Sarah Teather's retirement on political grounds was a sign that all was not well.

This is an impressive achievement compared to previous coalitions that saw the Liberals shed MPs either through defections to non-government parties (this happened even during the Churchill coalition in the Second World War) or due the party's departure failing to take all its members with them. There was no grand split with MPs forming an anti-coalition faction around someone like Simon Hughes, Tim Farron or Charles Kennedy. In this regard, Nick Clegg succeeded better than all his predecessors.

However, in nearly every other regard Clegg has taken the Lib Dems to a catastrophic failure.

(In one though, that's not necessarily a bad thing for the Lib Dems. He had an ambition to make the Lib Dems like the German Free Democrats. The FDP have since been wiped out of the Bundestag.)

Many explanations have been put forward but the fundamental problem is simple - the Liberal Democrats do not have a clearly identified distinctive raison d'être and a core vote based on that. I know someone will start posting the preamble to the Lib Dem constitution, but such position statements are fairly generic and in any case the preamble is not exactly widely known.

Over the years the Lib Dems have been all over the place, ranging from asserting a centrist position on the political spectrum to being to the left of Labour to radical free marketers. At a local level the situation is even worse with the party's trumpeted "localism" manifesting as a "whatever gets your vote gov" approach that has meant the party has become even more incoherent, with Lib Dems varying wildly across the country and sometimes even in the same district. Tristram Hunt is clearly biased but his piece from six years ago The Lib Dem power failure reflects how many from other parties look on in utter bewilderment as to what the Liberal Democrat vision in local government is.

And then there are two tactics that yes they are used by all parties but which the Lib Dems have turned into a fine art form. There's the demonisation of rival candidates for being insufficiently local, even when the Lib Dem candidate's own local credentials are questionable (e.g. a councillor from the far end of the borough from the constituency claiming to be more local than the sitting London Assembly Member). And there's the resort to tactical pleas with the whole "can't win here" that have squeezed rival parties. Both may deliver in the short term but neither have really converted the voters into long term Lib Dem supporters.

If the Lib Dems are to survive in the long term (and many in other parties hope they don't) they need to articulate a clear vision of what their party stands for to the public at large and grow a core vote around this vision. Their new leader has to start somewhere...

Another Liberal Democrat (deputy) leadership election

Thanks to Vincent Cable, the political world gets to enjoy yet another Liberal Democrat (deputy) leadership election. The wider world is, I'm sure, equally fascinated - remember John Prescott's comments last time?

First, let me welcome the hon. Gentleman to his role as acting deputy leader. We all know that the election will take place after today, and I wish him well. The matter is riveting the nation's attention—in fact, on my visit to Hull last weekend they talked of nothing else in the pubs.

(Hansard)

Cable has said he's standing down from the post purely because of the time commitments, but it's also notable that as the position is elected by the MPs it is the nearest to an equivalent of the Conservative Chair of the 1922 Committee or the Chair of the Parliamentary Labour Party and thus the best way Liberal Democrat MPs can represent their views to the leadership. And it's hard to do that when the post is held by a Cabinet Minister. So could the new deputy be someone outside the government - maybe this is finally the moment for Simon Hughes? Alternatively the post might offer the chance for a big name to make a comeback - would it be beneath Charles Kennedy or Sir Menzies Campbell to stand?

The election will take place on June 9th so for the moment it could be the most interesting show in town. Anyone care to predict the dark horse candidate?

A year of Nick Clegg

Apparently Nick Clegg has been leader of the Liberal Democrats for exactly one year today. (Hattip to Iain Dale's Diary: Nick Clegg: A Year of Progress or A Year of Disappointment? as I wouldn't have noticed otherwise.) So what has happened in his year as leader?

Well to be honest not much. The Liberal Democrats have stabilised, have managed to have a year without a leadership election (the first since 2004) but generally have been rather obscure. Their biggest news story was the massive splits when Clegg decided to oppose calls for a referendum on the EU Constitution "Treaty", when they are the party that has called for referendums on such treaties before. (Liberals continue ditching democracy and And so continues the Lib Dem Muppet Show) So that's one strike against democracy. (However I'm not sure that Clegg himself is responsible for the party's youth wing ditching students and democracy - see Young Liberals abandon students and democracy.) Otherwise the party has continued to be all over the place when it comes to tax cuts and that's about it really.

What about Clegg himself? Well he hasn't really made a great political impact and he's best known for the admission of sleeping with thirty women. It confirms that there are times when the public have the right not to know but has otherwise made him into a figure of fun. (However Jeremy Vine came off even worse - see Never again!) Then there was the revelation and attempted cover-up about the fact that Clegg was a member of the Conservatives at Cambridge. (Clegg's murky past) But beyond that Clegg hasn't made any real impact.

Still he can take some consolation when compared to the Liberal Democrats's counterparts in other countries. In the last twelve months their Canadian counterparts have suffered their worst election results since federation and seen their attempts to pervert democracy backfire big time with the leader deposed (When was this put to the electorate?), Has Canadian democracy triumphed?, "Forest Gump as a Prime Minister will not go over well in Quebec" and Harper 1, Dion Nil), their Australian counterparts have disappeared from parliament and their Irish counterparts have voted to dissolve themselves (The end of the Progressive Democrats).

Yet another Liberal Democrat leadership election

For those who just can't get enough of these, another one has started. This time it's for the leader of the Welsh Liberal Democrats (and, if I understand rule changes correctly, they will automatically be leader in the Welsh Assembly). (Liberal Democrat Voice: Race officially starts for Welsh Lib Dem leadership and Peter Black AM: Mike German stands down as leader) The candidates declared are Kirsty Williams and Jenny Randerson. Whoever wins will succeed Mike German and become the latest in a list of leaders that includes none other than Lembit Öpik.

Speaking of Lembit, he's aiming for another position - President of the Liberal Democrats. And despite being the only well known name in the race (the others are Baroness Scott and Chandila Fernando) it's telling that very few people seem willing to support him - see for instance the comments at Peter Black AM: In which I declare my support for Ros Scott - and some are even conspiring to block him, as I previously noted in President Lembit?. Yes the latter plot has been officially denied but remember the Yes Minister adage about that...

So can anyone tell me if any Liberal Democrats have ever stood for anything other than election?

Another Liberal Democrat leadership election farce

December is always a difficult time for the postal system, so one has to wonder who thought it was a good idea to have a Saturday December 15th deadline for returning postal ballots in the most recent Liberal Democrat leadership election. The latest damning revelation is that over a thousand ballot papers arrived between the 15th and the declaration on the 18th. And these ballots would have given the election to Chris Huhne. (The Independent: Meet the real leader of the Liberal Democrats)

It gets worse. The returning officer asked both candidates if they wanted the late ballots counted, and it was Nick Clegg who was firmest against this.

So Nick Clegg isn't even the choice of his party to lead them. How long before Cleggover becomes Cleggunder?

Razors at 10 paces!

I've just seen the clip of Chris Huhne and Nick Clegg at loggerheads (available from BBC News: Lib Dem sorry for 'calamity' slur) and I'm left wondering why either of these men thinks they're an appropriate person to lead the Liberal Democrats.

One is attacking the other for not being very clear about what he stands for. But these are Liberal Democrats after all! The other is complaining about an inability to keep one's campaign team under control. Consistency is to Liberal Democrats what chastity is to a prostitute.

And in the past two years the Liberal Democrats have deposed two leaders, had public row after public row, failed to find a clear direction instead meandering over the place even more than usual and now both their "leadership" candidates prove that this really is The Nasty Party of UK politics.

Well Clegg's a gonner

I missed this one earlier this week. Nick Clegg's leadership ambitions took a serious blow this week and it's possible he may never recover.

Yes he has received the backing of Lembit Öpik. (icWales: Öpik sides with Clegg on Lib-Dem vote)

Clegg has shrugged off the "Curse of Lembit" (see my past post Lembit Öpik's chance to sink yet another candidate's hopes) but others may not agree. Mike Ion: Message to Lembit Opik carried a warning a month ago; whilst Liberal England: The Curse of Lembit now reports a flurry of bets on Chris Huhne.

So what is this contest all about?!

One of the common complaints about the Liberal Democrats is that overall it's utterly unclear what they stand for, wit numerous ambiguities and a reluctance to engage in heavy philosophical debate. It's a reputation that both Chris Huhne and Nick Clegg seem determined to maintain, with the announcement that there are no policy disagreements between them and the election is all about presentation! (BBC News: Lib Dem race 'about presentation')

So do the Liberal Democrats want their policies to be presented by a Cameron clone public school Oxbridge educated politician or by erm a Cameron clone public school Oxbridge educated politician? I have nothing against anyone misfortunate enough to have been sent to a public school, but there are times when I do think it would help to have a broader mix of backgrounds in politics.

So for once we genuinely do have the Liberal Democrats involved in a two-horse race but with very little of note. What is this party for again?

A new species on the endangered list

Yesterday I had no internet access and consequently the resignation of Sir Menzies Campbell largely passed me by, so I didn't see the hints and whispers about the men in grey sandals telling Campbell his time was up. His interview on BBC News 24 this afternoon suggests there's a lot of anger there. He can at least console himself that the knives went into his back, rather than the front as with Charles Kennedy. But given his role in that fiasco, Campbell cannot complain about his downfall. But it now seems that Liberal Democrat leaders are the most endangered species in British politics - by the end of this Parliament they'll have had four different leaders since the election!

As to his successor - well aside from the acting leadership of Vincent Cable - who should the Liberal Democrats go for? Nick Clegg and Chris Huhne are both being talked up a lot - but the party may remember that last time they plumped for the obvious choice and look where that got them!

Of course there is one MP who absolutely has to stand, if only to ensure he can't accidentally support someone else! So come on down Lembit Öpik, this is your chance! As leader, you would have the chance to tell the country why protecting us all from asteroids is the number one priority!

P.S. There's a group on Facebook: Lembit Öpik MP for Lib Dem leader! So join up and invite others to do so as well!

Liberal Democrat leader steps down

You were all expecting to hear that the Lib Dems have finally done what needs doing and deposed Sir Menzies Campbell, weren't you? Well that news hasn't come through yet. But what has come through is that Lembit Öpik is resigning as leader of the Welsh Liberal Democrats. (BBC News: Öpik to step down from party post) He's jumped before being pushed - Lembit has been losing a lot of support lately. (See Liberal Democrat *leaders* in trouble)

So who will succeed Lembit in the battle for this incredibly coveted post?

A year of Ming Campbell

Today Sir Menzies Campbell celebrates one year since being winning the Liberal Democrat leadership election. And if his party, having its spring conference, isn't regretting the choice then they must be blind to political reality even by Liberal Democrat standards.

The latest opinion poll shows that just 6% of the public think Ming would make the best Prime Minister. (BBC News: Voters want Kennedy back - poll) But there's even worse news.

49% of those questioned thought [Charles Kennedy] would be a better leader than Sir Menzies Campbell - who polled 22% in the ICM survey of 1,005 people.

Liberal Democrats I've spoken to recently have been dismissive of the idea that Kennedy can come back. They seem to think he lost credibility when his party stabbed him the chest. (He wasn't the future ever!) Perhaps they're right - but it wasn't only Kennedy who came out of the affair badly.

I wouldn't be surprised if many are now regretting the events of last year, even if they are putting on a brave face. Privately many are no doubt hoping for the chance to break out in song (to the tune of "Bring back my grant cheque to me"):

Bring back,
Bring back,
Bring back Char-lie Ken-ne-dey!

But do any of them have the courage to do so during their current conference?

"Will you join my sinking ship?"

In the latest desperate attempt to stabilise what he calls his leadership, Sir Menzies Campbell has publicly invited Charles Kennedy to come back to the Liberal Democrat frontbench. He could not be more transparent if he tried. With Campbell's leadership faltering and so many looking for a Kennedy restoration this is a blatant attempt to take destroy Kennedy by taking him down with him. Now let's see if Kennedy will fall for this and board sinking ship.

Never believe something until it's been officially denied?

Charles Kennedy has denied reports that he is planning to challenge for his party's leadership again. The old adage of never believing something until it has been officially denied seems very apt. Ever since he was stabbed in the chest, Lib Dems have been wondering if this was a mistake. And Kennedy has certainly dropped hints that he would like the members to be able to consider him, whilst reminding the world he is still about and is even being lined up to head the Lib Dem campaign for the Scottish Parliament. With so much speculation about Ming Campbell's future due to a constant stream of disaster with things getting worse, surely the time is coming for the Lib Dems' "king over the water" to come back and smite the Campbells?

Also in the news is a reminder that Friday was the eighteenth anniversary of the election of Paddy Ashdown as leader. Ashdown has the dubious distinction of having been the only Lib Dem leader to offer his party a sense of direction and leadership. And he's only three months older than Campbell. The Lib Dems must all be kicking themselves that he's no longer their leader.

So just who is in charge of the Lib Dems?

FibDems asks "Has anyone seen their leader?" It seems the Scottish Lib Dems have been subtley distancing themselves from Sir Menzies Campbell and are even looking to Charles Kennedy to head their campaign for the 2007 Scottish Parliament elections.

The first evidence is a modification to the Scottish Lib Dems' website that was made yesterday, removing the detail that the federal party is "led by Sir Menzies Campbell MP". One has to wonder why - it's hardly as if the page needs the space. Does Nicol Stephen not wish to be promoted with Campbell if he can help it?

And if Kennedy is to be used in the campaign is this another step on his route back to the leadership? He's hardly played down attempts to cast him as "the king over the water". And of course another king over the water fought against the Campbells...

The comeback Kennedy?

Yellow Peril has noticed this story about Charles Kennedy on a visit to Devon. Amongst the comments he made was this:

I would have liked to contest the leadership election, because there is now a question mark in the air which members could have decided, had my name been on the ballot paper.

Hmm... a question mark over the incumbent (who has had no end of problems) and a sense of still being popular with the membership. The Lib Dems are desperately searching for a leader - could the answer be staring them in the past?

Same old Lib Dems!

Whilst looking scanning through some of the old posts on this blog, I've found this one from five months ago about the problems facing the Lib Dems:

The Lib Dems have purported to be the "Real Alternative" to Labour. At the moment they are a squabbling party, with the front bench falling over backwards in public to make it clear they support the leader whilst sharpening the knives, and endless speculation about potential successors. Compared to the Tony Blair & Old Man Brown show that's not an alternative at all!

One brutal deposition and a new leader later and they're still like this!

Alarm bells Minging... and who's running the show?

Following on from earlier, I've noticed that the Daily Telegraph has it even worse for Sir Menzies Campbell with "I'm sorry for my poor showing, says Sir Menzies". Amongst the highlights:

Sir Menzies Campbell has been forced to apologise for his poor performance as Liberal Democrat leader.

Some of the party's MPs fear that they will have to replace him within the year, it emerged last night. They gave Sir Menzies, 64, until the party's autumn conference "to get his act together" even though he was elected only two months ago.
...
Last week's local election results were a disappointment, with the party gaining two seats overall. One MP said the party was "hitting the panic button" over the threat from David Cameron, the new Tory leader.
...
But some Lib Dems are now privately convinced that they will have new leader within a year, with Nick Clegg, 39, the so-called Lib Dem answer to David Cameron and the party's home affairs spokesman, as the frontrunner.

"Ming will be gone within a year," said one Lib Dem MP.

Some Lib Dems fear that the idea that Sir Menzies's experience would outshine the youthful energy of Mr Cameron is proving mistaken. One MP said last night: "I just think he is not physically up to it."

And most intriguingly there are serious questions about just who is setting direction for the party, if there is one at all:

Another, on the Left of the party, bitterly complained that Lord (Paddy) Ashdown was pulling the party's policy strings by virtue of the Right-leading CentreForum think-tank.

He cited ideas of ditching the party's traditional opposition to tuition fees as one such potential policy reversal, but complained that Sir Menzies was not giving direction.

The criticism of Campbell has been quite high profile and public before and it seems it's getting to be yet another Groundhog Day. The Lib Dems are criticising the leader for underperforming and demanding he raise his game, otherwise they will depose him. And old leaders are emerging from the shadows. Could we see the Lib Dems come full circle and bring back the leader who they so brutally deposed?

So was getting rid of Charles Kennedy a good move?

BBC News are covering the "mixed results" for the Lib Dems. In what was billed as the first test of Sir Menzies Campbell's leadership they "consolidated" their position rather than making spectacular gains. In London they lost control of Islington and are now confined to their south west London heartlands. Elsewhere they didn't get spectacular results. Campbell himself has tried to dismiss claims he was "on test":

This wasn't a test for me; it was a test for the party after the difficulties of the earlier part of this year. I think we have come through this test.

So the Lib Dems are just standing still. Considering the predictions of annihilation that abounded in the days after they stabbed Charles Kennedy in the chest it's hard not to see this as an improvement. But would they have done better with Kennedy in the helm? Was forcing him out really an improvement for the party? Has Campbell really "raised his game"?

We don't see very much of Charles Kennedy in the media these days - when is he going to come back to the Liberal Democrats' frontbench team?

Twenty five years ago today...

The "Gang of Four" broke away from the Labour Party to found the Social Democratic Party, pledging to "break the mould of British politics".

Twenty five years on and what's changed? The SDP failed to make a breakthrough and eventually merged with the Liberals. Meanwhile those on the right of the Labour Party who did not defect instead stayed in the party and eventually defeated the hard left. Today it is New Labour that is the heir to the SDP.

Meanwhile nominations for the Liberal Democrat leadership election have closed today and we have three candidates remaining - Sir Menzies Campbell, Chris Huhne and Simon Hughes. Whoever wins is facing one of the biggest crises of the party's history. And given the fates of Charles Kennedy and Mark Oaten, all three must be desperately hoping they don't get Lembit Opik's backing. The party is declining in the polls, it has privately given up on the Dunfermline and West Fife by-election and it is facing the potential defection of three MPs. So much for the party being on the verge of heading towards government!