Over the past week I've been tied up with both work and a university alumni reunion event and so I've not had much time to comment on several big stories this week. So here are my quick thoughts on each of them, in chronological order:
* Tom Elliott has been elected leader of the Ulster Unionists in their first ever One Member One Vote election, albeit with votes cast at a meeting instead of by post. It speaks volumes about the Ulster Unionists' collapse over recent years that Elliott's election has gone unnoticed by many. I can't say that he strikes me as someone who is going to reverse the trend but then I've made several mispredictions in the past so who knows?
* Ken Livingstone has won the Labour nomination to be Mayor of London. So for 2012 Labour will be offering a candidate who doesn't give a toss about huge parts of London and who will instead spend much time patronising select groups who don't want to be patronised, filling up City Hall with corrupt cronies, and not giving a toss about huge parts of London. Is Labour even serious?
* Ed Miliband for Labour leader? I've never been able to take Miliband the Younger seriously at all. But now the trade unions have spoken and imposed "Red Ed" upon the Labour Party in an election where some people were hundreds of times more equal than others. I'm sure over the years to come Ed Miliband is going to give us a lot to laugh about as Labour continues to be a non-serious party that doesn't want to win elections.
Ironically when the Miliband election was being announced I was attending a lecture by David Starkey talking about another younger brother who unexpectedly came to power in place of the elder brother whom everyone had expected to be the one. It was a very enlightening talk about Henry VIII.
Showing posts with label Ulster Unionists. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Ulster Unionists. Show all posts
Sunday, September 26, 2010
Saturday, November 22, 2008
Conservatives and Ulster Unionists
The formal join-up of the Conservatives and Ulster Unionists was announced yesterday (ConservativeHome: David Cameron hails Ulster Unionist alliance with the Conservatives as a "new political force") and so far most of the reaction has been good.
I'll repeat my comments from four months ago (A Conservative-Ulster Unionist merger?):
But as there's already been the invariable attack from the Democratic Unionist Party. (News Letter: DUP attacks 'political marriage') Assembly Member Michelle McIlveen brings out the old chestnut of whether all eighteen Westminster seats will be contested at the next general election, claiming it could lead to Nationalists winning again in Belfast South and Fermanagh & South Tyrone.
I don't remember the DUP expressing this concern when they were, in their own words, "running candidates in every seat in Northern Ireland, even if it means losing Fermanagh and South Tyrone and South Belfast to anti-unionist parties". At the end of the day any party has the right to stand wherever it likes (and can get nominated) and equally has the right to not stand. Seats belong to one, and only one, group of people - the voters of those seats. By all means parties can choose where to deploy candidates, but a party that aspires to offer all voters the chance to vote for it should not step aside, especially for a party that is elsewhere trying to exterminate it.
I'll repeat my comments from four months ago (A Conservative-Ulster Unionist merger?):
But it's also a good move for not only both parties but the whole of the United Kingdom. For too long Northern Irish politics has been an isolated microcosm, with only half hearted efforts at organising by a handful of parties from both Britain and the Republic of Ireland, give or take a few small parties, and the result has been alienation and sometimes hatred, most recently when the DUP provided the majority of 42 days' detention or Iris Robinson MP's horrific comments about homosexuality.I think this still stands true and there's little on the basics that I haven't already said, other than to wonder if Labour have anything to say on this.
A party that is a strong and credible contender at all levels of Northern Irish and UK politics, that can allow for full engagement with national and international politics, can only help to move political debate forward in the province. It also helps to anchor the Conservative Party in all nations of the United Kingdom, a contrast to Labour who've had to be dragged into allowing even membership by the courts and is determined to remain a Brits only party.
Will this lead to a sudden landslide in Northern Ireland at the next election, with seats turning blue all over? Well let's not get carried away - there's a lot still to do and hundreds of thousands of voters to engage with. But it's a good start with promising signs to come.
But as there's already been the invariable attack from the Democratic Unionist Party. (News Letter: DUP attacks 'political marriage') Assembly Member Michelle McIlveen brings out the old chestnut of whether all eighteen Westminster seats will be contested at the next general election, claiming it could lead to Nationalists winning again in Belfast South and Fermanagh & South Tyrone.
I don't remember the DUP expressing this concern when they were, in their own words, "running candidates in every seat in Northern Ireland, even if it means losing Fermanagh and South Tyrone and South Belfast to anti-unionist parties". At the end of the day any party has the right to stand wherever it likes (and can get nominated) and equally has the right to not stand. Seats belong to one, and only one, group of people - the voters of those seats. By all means parties can choose where to deploy candidates, but a party that aspires to offer all voters the chance to vote for it should not step aside, especially for a party that is elsewhere trying to exterminate it.
Sunday, July 27, 2008
Conservative mergers - all the rage?
A few years ago the Canadian Progressive Conservative Party and the Canadian Alliance merged to form the Conservative Party of Canada. It is now the government of Canada. Then this week we heard the proposals for a Conservative-Ulster Unionist merger which could well become the government of the United Kingdom at the next election. And yesterday in Queensland, Australia the National Party and the Liberal Party merged to become the Liberal National Party of Queensland. (ABC News: Qld conservatives hail new party) It remains to be seen if the Liberal and National parties in the rest of Australia will follow the trend (although in the Northern Territory this merger was made decades ago) but the new party offers a single force to take on the Labor state government and start a conservative revival across Australia.
So will we see more conservative mergers in other countries around the world?
So will we see more conservative mergers in other countries around the world?
Thursday, July 24, 2008
A Conservative-Ulster Unionist merger?
The news that the Conservatives and the Ulster Unionists are to explore moves towards a joint party (ConservativeHome: The Conservative AND Unionist Party and Conservatives in Northern Ireland: A Historic Statement by David Cameron and Sir Reg Empey) has come as a surprise to me, which is a credit to the discrete negotiation skills of Owen Paterson and stands in complete contrast to the way attempts to form a new group in the European Parliament have been handled. But it's also a good move for not only both parties but the whole of the United Kingdom. For too long Northern Irish politics has been an isolated microcosm, with only half hearted efforts at organising by a handful of parties from both Britain and the Republic of Ireland, give or take a few small parties, and the result has been alienation and sometimes hatred, most recently when the DUP provided the majority of 42 days' detention or Iris Robinson MP's horrific comments about homosexuality.
A party that is a strong and credible contender at all levels of Northern Irish and UK politics, that can allow for full engagement with national and international politics, can only help to move political debate forward in the province. It also helps to anchor the Conservative Party in all nations of the United Kingdom, a contrast to Labour who've had to be dragged into allowing even membership by the courts and is determined to remain a Brits only party.
Will this lead to a sudden landslide in Northern Ireland at the next election, with seats turning blue all over? Well let's not get carried away - there's a lot still to do and hundreds of thousands of voters to engage with. But it's a good start with promising signs to come.
A party that is a strong and credible contender at all levels of Northern Irish and UK politics, that can allow for full engagement with national and international politics, can only help to move political debate forward in the province. It also helps to anchor the Conservative Party in all nations of the United Kingdom, a contrast to Labour who've had to be dragged into allowing even membership by the courts and is determined to remain a Brits only party.
Will this lead to a sudden landslide in Northern Ireland at the next election, with seats turning blue all over? Well let's not get carried away - there's a lot still to do and hundreds of thousands of voters to engage with. But it's a good start with promising signs to come.
Tuesday, April 17, 2007
David Trimble joins the Conservatives
There was mounting speculation yesterday about David Trimble joing the Conservatives (BBC News: Trimble 'set to become Tory peer') but he's now confirmed it on his own website (Statement by the Rt. Hon. The Lord Trimble, Tuesday, 17 April 2007).Trimble gives as his reasoning the settlement of the constitutional issues and a desire to be more involved in national politics. He also has this to say on the issue of giving Northern Ireland a greater say in UK wide politics:
I know from my experience in the Commons that a handful of opposition backbenchers rarely have enough influence. My move today will not change that. But my move draws attention to my view that the people of Northern Ireland will need to have more influence and can only really do so if they are more fully involved in the national politics of the United Kingdom. This would require a direct link to the major parties of the State, namely, in alphabetic order, the Conservatives, Labour, and the Liberal Democrats. For parties are the life blood of British Parliamentary democracy.Whether his words will be heeded in all three parties remains to be seen, but it has become increasingly clear that right-centre-left politics requires all three parties involved. (A rare kudos to the Greens for at least bringing a serious side option.)
This would mean some form of realignment bringing all the national parties to compete for the votes of the people here. Part of that realignment could be the recreation of the historic relationship between the Conservatives and the Ulster Unionists. But as the experience of the Northern Ireland Conservatives has shown, realignment cannot be achieved by one party alone. We need Labour and Liberal Democrats to be equally involved. Consequently I have not tried to persuade individual Ulster Unionists who intend to remain active in Ulster politics to follow me as individuals. But I do want to persuade the Ulster Unionist Party, and others, to integrate themselves more fully into British politics.
As for Trimble himself, I believe history will ultimately vindicate him. It is highly telling the way that all parties, especially the DUP, have moved over the years towards a system of constructive engagement. And the Union is far safer today than it was in past decades when the future of the province was deeply uncertain, when parties on all sides sought to end any attempt at progress increasing the attractiveness of an end to the Union. The principle of an internal settlement within the province within the UK has been accepted. As the institutions of government get into full speed, the "if it ain't broke don't fix it" position will set in. What was the Good Friday Agreement if not a victory for the Union?
Thursday, March 08, 2007
The Northern Ireland Assembly elections
Unfortunately my research today is keeping me from the internet, so my only source of information until this evening will be the BBC's text service of results.
Being an STV election it will take some time to determine the eventual composition of the new Assembly, and based on past elections the count could last into the evening tomorrow. Most of the hotly contested seats will be determined on transfers so even with the initial first preference results it won't be possible to determine some of them.
But my early revised predictions and thoughts on some constituencies in what has turned out to be a rather quiet election, at times drifting away from the constitutional issues and into other areas on policy:
First off I have a suspicion the UUP are going to do a lot worse than anyone's predicting. Opinion polls are notoriously useless in the province, massively overstating the UUP/SDLP vote at the expense of DUP/Sinn Fein, but when the UUP are polling only 16% then either they've become a party that no-one wants to admit voting for or a party that's running on empey big time.
Belfast West
It seems increasingly likely that the DUP will retain their seat here, against four for Sinn Fein and one for the SDLP. This particular election saw an interesting development that may either delight those who hope for the day when major parties compete for votes in all communities or run in horror. Both the UUP and DUP candidates took out adverts in the Anderstown News, pitching directly at the Nationalist/Roman Catholic community. The UUP advert was rather flat but at least positive reasons to vote for him (even if not very strong or convincing ones) but the DUP advert was a declaration that their candidate is anti-abortion, opposes "Peter Hain's anti-family agenda" (i.e. civil partnerships and equality legislation) and that Sinn Fein and the SDLP supported it. The DUP's record on homophobia is well known (the "Save Ulster from Sodomy" campaign, the expulsion of Paul Berry and so forth) but is it really in Northern Ireland's best interests for old community divides to be bridged in the name of new hate campaigns?
Predict: Sinn Fein 4, SDLP 1, DUP 1
Belfast East
On paper everything points to the DUP gaining a third seat at the expense of the PUP. And yet... There's a possibility that history could repeat itself for at least a fourth time. The DUP have a long history of vote mismanagement in this constituency, regardless of whether they try balancing the vote between candidates or piling it all up on their favourite (Peter Robinson). And with UUP leader Sir Reg Empey seeking re-election in this constituency, Robinson will probably not want to be outpolled by him (from recollection he last lost to Empey in 1975) in the run-up to the eventual DUP leadership election. I'm not saying for certain that things will foul up on the DUP again, but this is not a constituency that always meets even first round predictions.
Predict: Hmm... let's stay with my previous DUP 3, UUP 2, Alliance 1
South Antrim
The SDLP nominated two candidates to defend their single seat and the long running feud between them has burst out into the open, with fierce campaigning by each candidate on the other's lawn and front page headlines in the local paper. Everyone was wondering if Sinn Fein's Mitchell McLaughlin or Alliance leader David Ford would see the end of their careers, but with the SDLP turning in on itself (plus the DUP urging their supporters to transfer to Ford to keep Sinn Fein out) it seems as though both men will fight another day.
Predict: DUP 2, UUP 2, Alliance 1, Sinn Fein 1
West Tyrone
Reports are circulating that Kieran Deeny has been fighting on additional issues to the hospital. This strategy has worked for independents in the Republic (although party loyalty amongst voters is looser there) but could be the final thrashings of a man facing defeat?
Predict: Sinn Fein 3, SDLP 1, DUP 1, UUP 1
North Down
This is looking interesting, if not confusing. The UUP seem to be in dire straights and may be down to a single seat. This in turn could release a lot of votes to go in new directions. Meanwhile Bob McCartney's UKUP is reportedly invisible on the ground - this could be his last hurrah. I think we'll see at least one new party in the Assembly.
Predict: Confusion and another very long count.
And now to the results information coming in:
14:01 No-one elected yet, but both the DUP and Sinn Fein saying they've polled strongly and are expecting games.
14:53 East Belfast - Peter Robinson (DUP Deputy Leader elected) - no surprise. More interestingly Naomi Long appears to have been elected on the first count, indicating an upturn in the Alliance vote. Given that in recent years the UUP have made their main vote gains from Alliance (amidst losses elsewhere), this could spell a reversion and doom. Note that Sir Reg Empey hasn't yet been elected - not an encouraging sign for the UUP. (It does, however, mean that Robinson can face the DUP leadership election with the boast of having personally beaten the UUP leader at least seven times running.) The other interesting question is whether or not Dawn Purvis can retain the PUP seat here. Long's first count election potentially frees up some transfers and surpluses that might now go to Purvis. But I'm sceptical it will be enough.
Also reported is that Bob McCartney (UKUP leader) "looks like losing his North Down seat." I don't know if this indicates yet another first count with no-one elected in North Down (last time it took twelve rounds before anyone was elected!) but it's a promising sign (and will have people of all political persuasions cheering). McCartney has stood in five other constituencies but mainly those where neither his party nor independent anti-St Andrews Agreement Unionists were fielding anyone else (and that still left a few seats without any such candidate) so I doubt he'll be able to crawl back in in one of those.
15:54 Several more results come in, all on the first count.
North Belfast: Nigel Dodds (DUP) and Gerry Kelly (Sinn Fein) both elected. No real surprises here. The voting figures will give an indication as to how far the Sinn Fein vote will have to rise before Dodds's Westminster seat becomes vulnerable.
South Belfast: Jimmy Spratt (DUP) becomes the first new member of the Assembly. The DUP are widely tipped to gain a second seat here so this is an encouraging sign for them. Alasdair McDonnell (SDLP Deputy Leader) has also been elected first count. However the SDLP vote hasn't always been strong enough for two quotas here and as the local MP McDonnell may have taken the bulk of the votes so without numbers it remains to be seen how well his running mate is doing.
West Belfast: Gerry Adams (Sinn Fein leader) elected. No real surprise.
Seats: DUP 3, Sinn Fein 2, SDLP 1, Alliance 1, Others 0.
16:26 Some results from outside Belfast.
Lagan Valley: Jeffrey Donaldson (DUP) elected first count.
East Londonderry: Gregory Campbell (DUP) elected first count.
No real surprises here.
Seats: DUP 5, Sinn Fein 2, SDLP 1, Alliance 1, Others 0.
17:16 More first count results:
North Antrim: Ian Paisley (snr) (DUP leader) and D. McKary (Sinn Fein) elected. Since Sinn Fein only ran one candidate, due to particularly strong opposition to the St Andrews Agreement within their North Antrim party, it isn't really a surprise that their candidate was elected so quickly.
North Down: A. Easton (DUP). Now here's a surprise - one would have expected the DUP to be pushing Peter Weir for the most votes in preparation for an assault on the Westminster seat next time round.
East Antrim: Sammy Wilson (DUP). No surprise.
Seats: DUP 8, Sinn Fein 3, SDLP 1, Alliance 1, Others 0.
The UUP have still to win a seat. One of the problems is their consistent over nomination, particularly standing three candidates in many constituencies where they are facing a struggle to retain two seats. Without the numbers they may well be balancing for all I know, but right now UUP morale can't be high.
17:59 More results, with some moving into second counts.
West Tyrone: Pat Doherty (Sinn Fein), Barry McElduff (Sinn Fein) both first count. This suggests a strengthening of their vote as they seek to take a third seat.
Newry & Armagh: Conor Murphy (Sinn Fein) and C Boylan (Sinn Fein) both first count. Again it's a sign that they should hold their third seat (wich the SDLP had been hoping to take from them).
North Belfast: C Nm Chuilmn (Sinn Fein) second count. On this limited information I guess the DUP vote is balancing well and they will take a third seat at the expense of the UUP.
Seats: DUP 8, Sinn Fein 8, SDLP 1, Alliance 1, Others 0.
18:41 Ever more results
Mid Ulster: Martin McGuinness (Sinn Fein), Ian McCrea (DUP), Francie Molloy (Sinn Fein) M O'Neill (DUP) all first count. No surprise as Sinn Fein only ran three candidates despite having potential to start building for a future fourth seat, potential that could have been derailed by anti-policing Republicans.
North Antrim: Ian "Babydoc" Paisley Jnr (DUP) second count. Like father like son.
East Belfast: Sir Reg Empey (UUP leader). Finally a UUP seat
Seats: DUP 10, Sinn Fein 11, SDLP 1, Alliance 1, UUP 1, Others 0.
19:38
South Antrim: Mitchell McLaughlin (Sinn Fein), Willie McCrea (DUP). The first clear gain and an incredible result for Sinn Fein - they've been struggling for years in this seat. Now it remains to be seen if David Ford (Alliance leader) will be losing out.
Foyle: Mark Durkan (SDLP leader), William Hay (DUP).
Strangford: Iris Robinson (DUP).
Upper Bann: David Simpson (DUP).
West Belfast: Sue Ramsay (Sinn Fein).
Fermanagh & South Tyrone: Tom Elliott (UUP).
All fairly predictable, though interesting to note the UUP is still fighting in Fermanagh & South Tyrone.
Seats: DUP 13, Sinn Fein 13, SDLP 2, Alliance 1, UUP 2, Others 0.
As I'm now on the net, I'll be able to access the full figures now.
East Antrim:
Candidate Party Status Count Votes* %
Sammy Wilson DUP Elected 1 6,755 22.5
George Dawson DUP Elected 2 4,167 13.9
Sean Neeson AP 3,114 10.4
Roy Beggs UUP 3,076 10.2
David Hilditch DUP Elected 3 2,732 9.1
Ken Robinson UUP 1,881 6.3
Danny O'Connor SDLP 1,769 5.9
Stewart Dickson AP 1,624 5.4
Mark Dunn UUP 1,617 5.4
Oliver McMullan SF 1,168 3.9
Tom Robinson UKUP 731 2.4
Mark Bailey GP 612 2.0
John Anderson IND Eliminated 4 398 1.3
Tim Lewis Con 395 1.3
Total valid vote 30,039 53.0
Turnout 30,293 53.5
No real surprises here, although the growth in the Sinn Fein vote is notable.
Same prediction: 3 DUP, 2 UUP, 1 Alliance
Belfast East:
Candidate Party Status Count Votes* %
Peter Robinson DUP Elected 1 5,635 19.0
Naomi Long AP Elected 1 5,583 18.8
Reg Empey UUP Elected 3 4,139 14.0
Wallace Browne DUP 3,185 10.7
Dawn Purvis PUP 3,045 10.3
Robin Newton DUP 2,335 7.9
Michael Copeland UUP 1,557 5.3
Niall Ó'Donnghaile SF 1,055 3.6
Jim Rodgers UUP 820 2.8
Mary Muldoon SDLP 816 2.8
Steve Agnew GP 653 2.2
Glyn Chambers Con Eliminated 5 427 1.4
Tommy Black Soc Eliminated 5 225 0.8
Joe Bell WP Eliminated 5 107 0.4
Rainbow George MPH Eliminated 5 47 0.2
Total valid vote 29,629 59.5
Turnout 29,873 60.0
If the DUP have learnt how to balance they should win three seats. But amazingly the PUP have bounced back and Dawn Purvis is in with a fighting chance. The UUP vote is dire in the leader's constituency and it looks like they will be the losers.
New prediction: 3 DUP, 1 UUP, 1 Alliance, 1 PUP
East Londonderry:
Candidate Party Status Count Votes* %
Gregory Campbell DUP Elected 1 6,845 20.2
Francie Brolly SF 4,476 13.2
George Robinson DUP 3,991 11.8
David McClarty UUP 2,875 8.5
Adrian McQuillan DUP 2,650 7.8
John Dallat SDLP 2,538 7.5
Billy Leonard SF 2,321 6.8
Norman Hillis UUP 2,054 6.1
Orla Beattie SDLP 1,797 5.3
Barney Fitzpatrick AP 1,401 4.1
Edwin Stevenson UUP 1,338 3.9
Leslie Cubitt UKUP 649 1.9
Phillippe Moison GP 521 1.5
Michael McGonigle IND Eliminated 2 393 1.2
Victor Love Christie IND Eliminated 2 73 0.2
Total valid vote 33,922 60.5
Turnout 34,180 60.9
Two battles still to be resolved - will Sinn Fein take the SDLP seat? My guess is no. Will the DUP take the second UUP seat? It seems very likely.
New prediction: DUP 3, UUP 1, SF 1, SDLP 1
Fermanagh & South Tyrone:
Candidate Party Status Count Votes* %
Arlene Foster DUP Elected 1 7,138 15.4
Michelle Gildernew SF Elected 1 7,026 15.1
Tom Elliott UUP Elected 2 6,603 14.2
Gerry McHugh SF 5,103 11.0
Sean Lynch SF 4,704 10.1
Maurice Morrow DUP 4,700 10.1
Tommy Gallagher SDLP 4,440 9.6
Kenny Donaldson UUP 2,531 5.4
Vincent Currie SDLP 2,043 4.4
Gerry McGeough IND 814 1.8
Allan Leonard AP 521 1.1
Michael McManus IND 431 0.9
Robert McCartney UKUP 388 0.8
Total valid vote 46,442 70.6
Turnout 46,845 71.2
Quota 6,635 Electorate 65,826
I must have missed the text with Foster and Gildernew's election. On the Unionist side the DUP will take a second seat thanks to Foster's defection. On the nationalist side things are looking awfully tight for the SDLP - by running two candidates they may have split the vote and it won't necessarily reunify. There may, however, be some Unionist transfers floating about that could help them.
Same prediction: 2 SF, 2 DUP, 1 UUP, 1 SDLP
Foyle:
Candidate Party Status Count Votes* %
William Hay DUP Elected 1 6,960 17.0
Mark Durkan SDLP Elected 1 6,401 15.6
Martina Anderson SF 5,414 13.2
Raymond McCartney SF 4,321 10.5
Pat Ramsey SDLP 3,242 7.9
Lynn Fleming SF 2,914 7.1
Mary Bradley SDLP 2,891 7.0
Helen Quigley SDLP 2,648 6.5
Eamonn McCann SEA 2,045 5.0
Peggy O'Hara IND 1,789 4.4
Peter Munce UUP 1,755 4.3
Adele Corry GP Eliminated 2 359 0.9
Yvonne Boyle AP Eliminated 2 224 0.5
Willie Frazer IND Eliminated 2 73 0.2
Total valid vote 41,036 63.2
Turnout 41,455 63.9
Unless things go very wrong for them in the transfers, the SDLP should keep their third seat.
Same prediction: SDLP 3, SF 2, DUP 1
Lagan Valley:
Candidate Party Status Count Votes* %
Jeffrey Donaldson DUP Elected 1 9,793 23.4
Paul Butler SF Elected 6 5,098 12.2
Basil McCrea UUP 4,031 9.6
Trevor Lunn AP 3,765 9.0
Jonathan Craig DUP 3,471 8.3
Edwin Poots DUP 3,457 8.3
Paul Givan DUP 3,377 8.1
Marietta Farrell SDLP Eliminated 5 2,839 6.8
Billy Bell UUP Eliminated 6 2,599 6.2
Ronnie Crawford UUP Eliminated 4 1,147 2.7
Michael Rogan GP Eliminated 4 922 2.2
Robert McCartney UKUP Eliminated 3 853 2.0
Neil Johnston Con Eliminated 2 387 0.9
John Magee WP Eliminated 2 83 0.2
Total valid vote 41,822 59.7
Turnout 42,058 60.0
Quite an advanced count by the time I accessed these results. It's clear:
New prediction: 3 DUP, 1 SF, 1 UUP, 1 Alliance
Mid Ulster:
Candidate Party Status Count Votes* %
Martin McGuinness SF Elected 1 8,065 18.2
Ian McCrea DUP Elected 1 7,608 17.2
Francie Molloy SF Elected 1 6,597 14.9
Michelle O'Neill SF Elected 2 6,432 14.5
Patsy McGlone SDLP 4,976 11.2
Billy Armstrong UUP 4,781 10.8
Kate Lagan SDLP 2,759 6.2
Walter Millar UKUP 1,210 2.7
Anne Forde DUP 1,021 2.3
Brendan McLaughlin IND 437 1.0
Margaret Marshall AP 221 0.5
Harry Hutchinson IND 170 0.4
Total valid vote 44,277 72.3
Turnout 44,728 73.1
Another that looks clear. The UUP seat looks safe for now. The UKUP vote is quite high and indeed the DUP vote is down here.
Same prediction: 3 SF, 1 SDLP, 1 DUP, 1 UUP.
Newry & Armagh:
Candidate Party Status Count Votes* %
Conor Murphy SF Elected 1 7,437 15.0
Cathal Boylan SF Elected 1 7,105 14.3
Danny Kennedy UUP 6,517 13.1
William Irwin DUP 6,418 12.9
Mickey Brady SF Elected 4 6,337 12.8
Dominic Bradley SDLP 5,318 10.7
Sharon Haughey SDLP 4,500 9.1
Paul Berry IND Eliminated 4 2,317 4.7
Davy Hyland IND Eliminated 3 2,188 4.4
Willie Frazer IND Eliminated 1 605 1.2
Brendan Morgan GP Eliminated 1 599 1.2
Máire Hendron AP Eliminated 1 278 0.6
Total valid vote 49,619 70.1
Turnout 50,165 70.8
Okay since the joke is obvious, Paul Berry is now out.
Otherwise this is one of the only seats where the UUP are leading the DUP, albeit by just 99 votes and clearly because of the DUP's local difficulties.
With so many candidates now eliminated it's clear this will be:
Same prediction: SF 3, SDLP 1, UUP 1, DUP 1
North Antrim:
Candidate Party Status Count Votes* %
Ian Paisley DUP Elected 1 7,716 17.4
Daithi McKay SF Elected 1 7,065 15.9
Ian Paisley DUP Elected 2 6,106 13.8
Mervyn Storey DUP 5,171 11.7
Robert Coulter UUP 5,047 11.4
Declan O'Loan SDLP 3,281 7.4
Deirdre Nelson DUP 2,740 6.2
Orla Black SDLP 2,129 4.8
Lyle Cubitt UKUP 1,848 4.2
Robin Swann UUP 1,281 2.9
Jayne Dunlop AP Eliminated 5 1,254 2.8
Paul McGlinchey IND Eliminated 4 383 0.9
James Gregg IND Eliminated 4 310 0.7
Total valid vote 44,331 72.4
Turnout 44,655 72.9
Another where it looks fairly stable, although the shift in votes suggests next time round some seats will be very vulnerable.
Same prediction: DUP 3, UUP 1, SF 1, SDLP 1
Belfast North:
Candidate Party Status Count Votes* %
Nigel Dodds DUP Elected 1 6,973 23.5
Gerry Kelly SF Elected 1 5,414 18.2
Caral Ni Chuilin SF Elected 4 3,680 12.4
Fred Cobain UUP 2,498 8.4
Nelson McCausland DUP 2,462 8.3
Alban Maginness SDLP 2,212 7.4
Pat Convery SDLP 1,868 6.3
William Humphrey DUP 1,673 5.6
Raymond McCord IND 1,320 4.4
Peter Emerson GP 590 2.0
Tommy McCullough AP 486 1.6
Robert McCartney UKUP 360 1.2
John Lavery WP 139 0.5
Rainbow George MPH 40 0.1
Total valid vote 29,715 60.2
Turnout 30,067 60.9
Without an idea of transfers it's very difficult to guess how the Unionist fight is going. Fred Cobain looks to be in a strong position but is very vulnerable to the votes consolidating. Given how badly the UUP is doing elsewhere I'm inclined to call this one against them.
Same prediction: DUP 3, SF 2, SDLP 1
North Down:
Candidate Party Status Count Votes* %
Alex Easton DUP Elected 1 4,946 16.1
Peter Weir DUP 3,376 11.0
Stephen Farry AP 3,131 10.2
Leslie Cree UUP 2,937 9.6
Brian Wilson GP 2,839 9.2
Alan McFarland UUP 2,245 7.3
Alan Graham DUP 2,147 7.0
Marion Smith UUP 2,098 6.8
Robert McCartney UKUP 1,806 5.9
Brian Rowan IND 1,194 3.9
Alan Chambers IND 1,129 3.7
Liam Logan SDLP 1,115 3.6
James Leslie Con Eliminated 0 864 2.8
Deaglan Page SF Eliminated 3 390 1.3
Elaine Martin PUP Eliminated 3 367 1.2
Chris Carter IND Eliminated 2 123 0.4
Total valid vote 30,707 53.4
Turnout 30,930 53.8
It looks like Bob McCartney is going OUT OUT OUT!
Otherwise this looks like a very drawn out count. But I think the UUP should just get a second seat on transfers, with Alliance hanging on and the Greens making a historic breakthrough.
Same prediction: DUP 2, UUP 2, Alliance 1, Greens 1
South Antrim:
Candidate Party Status Count Votes* %
Mitchel McLaughlin SF Elected 1 6,313 16.5
William McCrea DUP Elected 1 6,023 15.8
David Ford AP 5,007 13.1
David Burnside UUP 4,507 11.8
Trevor Clarke DUP 4,302 11.3
Mel Lucas DUP 2,840 7.4
Thomas Burns SDLP 2,721 7.1
Danny Kinahan UUP 2,391 6.3
Noreen McClelland SDLP 1,526 4.0
Stephen Nicholl UUP 927 2.4
Robert McCartney UKUP 893 2.3
Peter Whitcroft GP 507 1.3
Stephen O'Brien Con 129 0.3
Marcella Delaney WP 89 0.2
Total valid vote 38,175 58.1
Turnout 38,481 58.6
Quota 5,454 Electorate 65,654
At the top end Mitchel McLaughlin topping the poll is astounding. At the bottom end things look awfully tight between a second UUP candidate (and fortune is not smiling on them today), a third DUP candidate and any SDLP candidate. David Ford (Alliance leader) looks safe.
New prediction: DUP 3, SF 1, UUP 1, Alliance 1
David Burnside (UUP - who looks safe) has called for his party to go into opposition to the devolved administration. It seems someone at least in the UUP has an idea of a direction to go in. Burnside should contest the UUP leadership this year and settle once and for all whether or not the party is going his way.
Belfast South:
Candidate Party Status Count Votes* %
Jimmy Spratt DUP Elected 1 4,762 15.7
Alasdair McDonnell SDLP Elected 1 4,379 14.4
Alex Maskey SF 3,996 13.2
Anna Lo AP 3,829 12.6
Carmel Hanna SDLP 3,748 12.4
Michael McGimpsey UUP 2,647 8.7
Christopher Stalford DUP 2,035 6.7
Esmond Birnie UUP 1,804 5.9
Bob Stoker UUP Eliminated 0 1,122 3.7
Brenda Cooke GP 737 2.4
Andrew Park PUP 410 1.4
David Hoey UKUP 298 1.0
Jim Barbour Soc Eliminated 6 248 0.8
Paddy Lynn WP Eliminated 5 123 0.4
Roger Lomas Con Eliminated 5 108 0.4
Rainbow George MPH Eliminated 4 66 0.2
Charles Smyth PROC Eliminated 4 22 0.1
Geoffrey Wilson IND Eliminated 4 10 0.0
Total valid vote 30,344 62.0
Turnout 30,533 62.4
Astonishingly people are talking about Alliance taking a Unionist seat - but it could well happen. Certainly the votes imply a UUP->Alliance shift. Indeed the DUP vote is not as strong as they'd like, or very well balanced. Sinn Fein have defied all predictions of a loss here and even improved their vote share.
New prediction: SDLP 2, DUP 1, UUP 1, Alliance 1
South Down:
Candidate Party Status Count Votes* %
Caitriona Ruane SF Elected 7 6,334 13.7
Margaret Ritchie SDLP 5,838 12.7
PJ Bradley SDLP 5,652 12.3
Jim Wells DUP 5,542 12.0
Willie Clarke SF 5,138 11.1
John McCallister UUP 4,447 9.6
Michael Carr SDLP 2,972 6.4
Eamonn McConvey SF Eliminated 7 2,662 5.8
William Burns DUP 2,611 5.7
Ciaran Mussen GP Eliminated 6 1,622 3.5
Henry Reilly UKIP Eliminated 5 1,229 2.7
David Griffin AP Eliminated 4 691 1.5
Martin Cunningham IND Eliminated 4 434 0.9
Nelson Wharton UKUP Eliminated 4 424 0.9
Peter Bowles Con Eliminated 3 391 0.8
Malachi Curran LP Eliminated 2 123 0.3
Total valid vote 46,110 64.3
Turnout 46,623 65.0
With no idea as to transfers it's hard to be sure, but it looks as though the UUP will hang on here.
Same prediction: SDLP 2, SF 2, DUP 1, UUP 1
Strangford:
Candidate Party Status Count Votes* %
Iris Robinson DUP Elected 1 5,917 16.4
Jim Shannon DUP 4,788 13.3
Kieran McCarthy AP 4,085 11.3
Simon Hamilton DUP 3,889 10.8
David McNarry UUP 3,709 10.3
Michelle McIlveen DUP 3,468 9.6
Joe Boyle SDLP 3,068 8.5
Angus Carson UUP 2,128 5.9
Dermot Kennedy SF 1,089 3.0
George Ennis UKUP 872 2.4
Stephanie Sim GP 868 2.4
Michael Henderson UUP 675 1.9
David Gregg IND 650 1.8
Bob Little Con 508 1.4
Cedric Wilson IND Eliminated 2 305 0.8
Total valid vote 36,019 54.0
Turnout 36,340 54.5
This longs complex because both a second UUP and a fourth DUP seat are in or out of the realms of possibility. The DUP have balanced a lot better - so for now I'll call it their way:
New prediction: DUP 4, UUP 1, Alliance 1
Upper Bann:
Candidate Party Status Count Votes* %
John O'Dowd SF Elected 1 7,733 18.0
David Simpson DUP Elected 1 6,828 15.9
Sam Gardiner UUP 5,135 12.0
Dolores Kelly SDLP 4,689 10.9
Stephen Moutray DUP 3,663 8.5
Dessie Ward SF 3,118 7.3
John McCrum DUP 2,975 6.9
George Savage UUP 2,167 5.1
Arnold Hatch UUP 1,815 4.2
David Calvert IND 1,332 3.1
Helen Corry GP 1,156 2.7
Sheila McQuaid AP 798 1.9
Patrick McAleenan SDLP Eliminated 4 761 1.8
Barry Toman IND Eliminated 3 386 0.9
David Fry Con Eliminated 3 248 0.6
Suzanne Peeples IND Eliminated 3 78 0.2
Total valid vote 42,882 60.6
Turnout 43,235 61.1
Quota 6,127 Electorate 70,716
It seems that Sinn Fein may gain from the UUP here.
New prediction: DUP 2, SF 2, UUP 1, SDLP 1
Belfast West:
Candidate Party Status Count Votes* %
Gerry Adams SF Elected 1 6,029 17.8
Sue Ramsey SF Elected 2 4,715 14.0
Paul Maskey SF 4,368 12.9
Jennifer McCann SF 4,265 12.6
Fra McCann SF 4,254 12.6
Diane Dodds DUP 3,661 10.8
Alex Attwood SDLP 3,036 9.0
Margaret Walsh SDLP 1,074 3.2
Sean Mitchell PBP 774 2.3
Louis West UUP 558 1.7
John Lowry WP 434 1.3
Geraldine Taylor IND Eliminated 5 427 1.3
Dan McGuinness AP Eliminated 4 127 0.4
Rainbow George MPH Eliminated 4 68 0.2
Total valid vote 33,790 66.5
Turnout 34,238 67.4
Sinn Fein have balanced spectacularly and look on course for five seats. This leaves the last seat between the SDLP and the DUP - with the current balance favouring the former.
New prediction: SF 5, SDLP 1
West Tyrone:
Candidate Party Status Count Votes* %
Barry McElduff SF Elected 1 6,971 16.8
Pat Doherty SF Elected 1 6,709 16.2
Claire McGill SF Elected 3 4,757 11.5
Thomas Buchanan DUP 4,625 11.2
Allan Bresland DUP 4,244 10.2
Kieran Deeny IND 3,776 9.1
Derek Hussey UUP 3,686 8.9
Jo Deehan SDLP 2,689 6.5
Eugene McMenamin SDLP 2,272 5.5
Seamus Shields SDLP 1,057 2.5
Joe O'Neill IND 448 1.1
Robert McCartney UKUP 220 0.5
Total valid vote 41,454 71.0
Turnout 41,839 71.7
Quota 5,923 Electorate 58,367
Messy as fuck! Sinn Fein have finally won all three seats and the DUP are on course to hold their seat - and indeed have managed to outbalance the UUP. But with three SDLP candidates fighting for a single seat and Kieran Deeny doing well there's a lot to play for.
New prediction: SF 3, DUP 1, Deeny 1, SDLP 1
Over all it's quite a shock that the UUP is still sinking further. The party seems in terminal decline now.
Being an STV election it will take some time to determine the eventual composition of the new Assembly, and based on past elections the count could last into the evening tomorrow. Most of the hotly contested seats will be determined on transfers so even with the initial first preference results it won't be possible to determine some of them.
But my early revised predictions and thoughts on some constituencies in what has turned out to be a rather quiet election, at times drifting away from the constitutional issues and into other areas on policy:
First off I have a suspicion the UUP are going to do a lot worse than anyone's predicting. Opinion polls are notoriously useless in the province, massively overstating the UUP/SDLP vote at the expense of DUP/Sinn Fein, but when the UUP are polling only 16% then either they've become a party that no-one wants to admit voting for or a party that's running on empey big time.
Belfast West
It seems increasingly likely that the DUP will retain their seat here, against four for Sinn Fein and one for the SDLP. This particular election saw an interesting development that may either delight those who hope for the day when major parties compete for votes in all communities or run in horror. Both the UUP and DUP candidates took out adverts in the Anderstown News, pitching directly at the Nationalist/Roman Catholic community. The UUP advert was rather flat but at least positive reasons to vote for him (even if not very strong or convincing ones) but the DUP advert was a declaration that their candidate is anti-abortion, opposes "Peter Hain's anti-family agenda" (i.e. civil partnerships and equality legislation) and that Sinn Fein and the SDLP supported it. The DUP's record on homophobia is well known (the "Save Ulster from Sodomy" campaign, the expulsion of Paul Berry and so forth) but is it really in Northern Ireland's best interests for old community divides to be bridged in the name of new hate campaigns?
Predict: Sinn Fein 4, SDLP 1, DUP 1
Belfast East
On paper everything points to the DUP gaining a third seat at the expense of the PUP. And yet... There's a possibility that history could repeat itself for at least a fourth time. The DUP have a long history of vote mismanagement in this constituency, regardless of whether they try balancing the vote between candidates or piling it all up on their favourite (Peter Robinson). And with UUP leader Sir Reg Empey seeking re-election in this constituency, Robinson will probably not want to be outpolled by him (from recollection he last lost to Empey in 1975) in the run-up to the eventual DUP leadership election. I'm not saying for certain that things will foul up on the DUP again, but this is not a constituency that always meets even first round predictions.
Predict: Hmm... let's stay with my previous DUP 3, UUP 2, Alliance 1
South Antrim
The SDLP nominated two candidates to defend their single seat and the long running feud between them has burst out into the open, with fierce campaigning by each candidate on the other's lawn and front page headlines in the local paper. Everyone was wondering if Sinn Fein's Mitchell McLaughlin or Alliance leader David Ford would see the end of their careers, but with the SDLP turning in on itself (plus the DUP urging their supporters to transfer to Ford to keep Sinn Fein out) it seems as though both men will fight another day.
Predict: DUP 2, UUP 2, Alliance 1, Sinn Fein 1
West Tyrone
Reports are circulating that Kieran Deeny has been fighting on additional issues to the hospital. This strategy has worked for independents in the Republic (although party loyalty amongst voters is looser there) but could be the final thrashings of a man facing defeat?
Predict: Sinn Fein 3, SDLP 1, DUP 1, UUP 1
North Down
This is looking interesting, if not confusing. The UUP seem to be in dire straights and may be down to a single seat. This in turn could release a lot of votes to go in new directions. Meanwhile Bob McCartney's UKUP is reportedly invisible on the ground - this could be his last hurrah. I think we'll see at least one new party in the Assembly.
Predict: Confusion and another very long count.
And now to the results information coming in:
14:01 No-one elected yet, but both the DUP and Sinn Fein saying they've polled strongly and are expecting games.
14:53 East Belfast - Peter Robinson (DUP Deputy Leader elected) - no surprise. More interestingly Naomi Long appears to have been elected on the first count, indicating an upturn in the Alliance vote. Given that in recent years the UUP have made their main vote gains from Alliance (amidst losses elsewhere), this could spell a reversion and doom. Note that Sir Reg Empey hasn't yet been elected - not an encouraging sign for the UUP. (It does, however, mean that Robinson can face the DUP leadership election with the boast of having personally beaten the UUP leader at least seven times running.) The other interesting question is whether or not Dawn Purvis can retain the PUP seat here. Long's first count election potentially frees up some transfers and surpluses that might now go to Purvis. But I'm sceptical it will be enough.
Also reported is that Bob McCartney (UKUP leader) "looks like losing his North Down seat." I don't know if this indicates yet another first count with no-one elected in North Down (last time it took twelve rounds before anyone was elected!) but it's a promising sign (and will have people of all political persuasions cheering). McCartney has stood in five other constituencies but mainly those where neither his party nor independent anti-St Andrews Agreement Unionists were fielding anyone else (and that still left a few seats without any such candidate) so I doubt he'll be able to crawl back in in one of those.
15:54 Several more results come in, all on the first count.
North Belfast: Nigel Dodds (DUP) and Gerry Kelly (Sinn Fein) both elected. No real surprises here. The voting figures will give an indication as to how far the Sinn Fein vote will have to rise before Dodds's Westminster seat becomes vulnerable.
South Belfast: Jimmy Spratt (DUP) becomes the first new member of the Assembly. The DUP are widely tipped to gain a second seat here so this is an encouraging sign for them. Alasdair McDonnell (SDLP Deputy Leader) has also been elected first count. However the SDLP vote hasn't always been strong enough for two quotas here and as the local MP McDonnell may have taken the bulk of the votes so without numbers it remains to be seen how well his running mate is doing.
West Belfast: Gerry Adams (Sinn Fein leader) elected. No real surprise.
Seats: DUP 3, Sinn Fein 2, SDLP 1, Alliance 1, Others 0.
16:26 Some results from outside Belfast.
Lagan Valley: Jeffrey Donaldson (DUP) elected first count.
East Londonderry: Gregory Campbell (DUP) elected first count.
No real surprises here.
Seats: DUP 5, Sinn Fein 2, SDLP 1, Alliance 1, Others 0.
17:16 More first count results:
North Antrim: Ian Paisley (snr) (DUP leader) and D. McKary (Sinn Fein) elected. Since Sinn Fein only ran one candidate, due to particularly strong opposition to the St Andrews Agreement within their North Antrim party, it isn't really a surprise that their candidate was elected so quickly.
North Down: A. Easton (DUP). Now here's a surprise - one would have expected the DUP to be pushing Peter Weir for the most votes in preparation for an assault on the Westminster seat next time round.
East Antrim: Sammy Wilson (DUP). No surprise.
Seats: DUP 8, Sinn Fein 3, SDLP 1, Alliance 1, Others 0.
The UUP have still to win a seat. One of the problems is their consistent over nomination, particularly standing three candidates in many constituencies where they are facing a struggle to retain two seats. Without the numbers they may well be balancing for all I know, but right now UUP morale can't be high.
17:59 More results, with some moving into second counts.
West Tyrone: Pat Doherty (Sinn Fein), Barry McElduff (Sinn Fein) both first count. This suggests a strengthening of their vote as they seek to take a third seat.
Newry & Armagh: Conor Murphy (Sinn Fein) and C Boylan (Sinn Fein) both first count. Again it's a sign that they should hold their third seat (wich the SDLP had been hoping to take from them).
North Belfast: C Nm Chuilmn (Sinn Fein) second count. On this limited information I guess the DUP vote is balancing well and they will take a third seat at the expense of the UUP.
Seats: DUP 8, Sinn Fein 8, SDLP 1, Alliance 1, Others 0.
18:41 Ever more results
Mid Ulster: Martin McGuinness (Sinn Fein), Ian McCrea (DUP), Francie Molloy (Sinn Fein) M O'Neill (DUP) all first count. No surprise as Sinn Fein only ran three candidates despite having potential to start building for a future fourth seat, potential that could have been derailed by anti-policing Republicans.
North Antrim: Ian "Babydoc" Paisley Jnr (DUP) second count. Like father like son.
East Belfast: Sir Reg Empey (UUP leader). Finally a UUP seat
Seats: DUP 10, Sinn Fein 11, SDLP 1, Alliance 1, UUP 1, Others 0.
19:38
South Antrim: Mitchell McLaughlin (Sinn Fein), Willie McCrea (DUP). The first clear gain and an incredible result for Sinn Fein - they've been struggling for years in this seat. Now it remains to be seen if David Ford (Alliance leader) will be losing out.
Foyle: Mark Durkan (SDLP leader), William Hay (DUP).
Strangford: Iris Robinson (DUP).
Upper Bann: David Simpson (DUP).
West Belfast: Sue Ramsay (Sinn Fein).
Fermanagh & South Tyrone: Tom Elliott (UUP).
All fairly predictable, though interesting to note the UUP is still fighting in Fermanagh & South Tyrone.
Seats: DUP 13, Sinn Fein 13, SDLP 2, Alliance 1, UUP 2, Others 0.
As I'm now on the net, I'll be able to access the full figures now.
East Antrim:
Candidate Party Status Count Votes* %
Sammy Wilson DUP Elected 1 6,755 22.5
George Dawson DUP Elected 2 4,167 13.9
Sean Neeson AP 3,114 10.4
Roy Beggs UUP 3,076 10.2
David Hilditch DUP Elected 3 2,732 9.1
Ken Robinson UUP 1,881 6.3
Danny O'Connor SDLP 1,769 5.9
Stewart Dickson AP 1,624 5.4
Mark Dunn UUP 1,617 5.4
Oliver McMullan SF 1,168 3.9
Tom Robinson UKUP 731 2.4
Mark Bailey GP 612 2.0
John Anderson IND Eliminated 4 398 1.3
Tim Lewis Con 395 1.3
Total valid vote 30,039 53.0
Turnout 30,293 53.5
No real surprises here, although the growth in the Sinn Fein vote is notable.
Same prediction: 3 DUP, 2 UUP, 1 Alliance
Belfast East:
Candidate Party Status Count Votes* %
Peter Robinson DUP Elected 1 5,635 19.0
Naomi Long AP Elected 1 5,583 18.8
Reg Empey UUP Elected 3 4,139 14.0
Wallace Browne DUP 3,185 10.7
Dawn Purvis PUP 3,045 10.3
Robin Newton DUP 2,335 7.9
Michael Copeland UUP 1,557 5.3
Niall Ó'Donnghaile SF 1,055 3.6
Jim Rodgers UUP 820 2.8
Mary Muldoon SDLP 816 2.8
Steve Agnew GP 653 2.2
Glyn Chambers Con Eliminated 5 427 1.4
Tommy Black Soc Eliminated 5 225 0.8
Joe Bell WP Eliminated 5 107 0.4
Rainbow George MPH Eliminated 5 47 0.2
Total valid vote 29,629 59.5
Turnout 29,873 60.0
If the DUP have learnt how to balance they should win three seats. But amazingly the PUP have bounced back and Dawn Purvis is in with a fighting chance. The UUP vote is dire in the leader's constituency and it looks like they will be the losers.
New prediction: 3 DUP, 1 UUP, 1 Alliance, 1 PUP
East Londonderry:
Candidate Party Status Count Votes* %
Gregory Campbell DUP Elected 1 6,845 20.2
Francie Brolly SF 4,476 13.2
George Robinson DUP 3,991 11.8
David McClarty UUP 2,875 8.5
Adrian McQuillan DUP 2,650 7.8
John Dallat SDLP 2,538 7.5
Billy Leonard SF 2,321 6.8
Norman Hillis UUP 2,054 6.1
Orla Beattie SDLP 1,797 5.3
Barney Fitzpatrick AP 1,401 4.1
Edwin Stevenson UUP 1,338 3.9
Leslie Cubitt UKUP 649 1.9
Phillippe Moison GP 521 1.5
Michael McGonigle IND Eliminated 2 393 1.2
Victor Love Christie IND Eliminated 2 73 0.2
Total valid vote 33,922 60.5
Turnout 34,180 60.9
Two battles still to be resolved - will Sinn Fein take the SDLP seat? My guess is no. Will the DUP take the second UUP seat? It seems very likely.
New prediction: DUP 3, UUP 1, SF 1, SDLP 1
Fermanagh & South Tyrone:
Candidate Party Status Count Votes* %
Arlene Foster DUP Elected 1 7,138 15.4
Michelle Gildernew SF Elected 1 7,026 15.1
Tom Elliott UUP Elected 2 6,603 14.2
Gerry McHugh SF 5,103 11.0
Sean Lynch SF 4,704 10.1
Maurice Morrow DUP 4,700 10.1
Tommy Gallagher SDLP 4,440 9.6
Kenny Donaldson UUP 2,531 5.4
Vincent Currie SDLP 2,043 4.4
Gerry McGeough IND 814 1.8
Allan Leonard AP 521 1.1
Michael McManus IND 431 0.9
Robert McCartney UKUP 388 0.8
Total valid vote 46,442 70.6
Turnout 46,845 71.2
Quota 6,635 Electorate 65,826
I must have missed the text with Foster and Gildernew's election. On the Unionist side the DUP will take a second seat thanks to Foster's defection. On the nationalist side things are looking awfully tight for the SDLP - by running two candidates they may have split the vote and it won't necessarily reunify. There may, however, be some Unionist transfers floating about that could help them.
Same prediction: 2 SF, 2 DUP, 1 UUP, 1 SDLP
Foyle:
Candidate Party Status Count Votes* %
William Hay DUP Elected 1 6,960 17.0
Mark Durkan SDLP Elected 1 6,401 15.6
Martina Anderson SF 5,414 13.2
Raymond McCartney SF 4,321 10.5
Pat Ramsey SDLP 3,242 7.9
Lynn Fleming SF 2,914 7.1
Mary Bradley SDLP 2,891 7.0
Helen Quigley SDLP 2,648 6.5
Eamonn McCann SEA 2,045 5.0
Peggy O'Hara IND 1,789 4.4
Peter Munce UUP 1,755 4.3
Adele Corry GP Eliminated 2 359 0.9
Yvonne Boyle AP Eliminated 2 224 0.5
Willie Frazer IND Eliminated 2 73 0.2
Total valid vote 41,036 63.2
Turnout 41,455 63.9
Unless things go very wrong for them in the transfers, the SDLP should keep their third seat.
Same prediction: SDLP 3, SF 2, DUP 1
Lagan Valley:
Candidate Party Status Count Votes* %
Jeffrey Donaldson DUP Elected 1 9,793 23.4
Paul Butler SF Elected 6 5,098 12.2
Basil McCrea UUP 4,031 9.6
Trevor Lunn AP 3,765 9.0
Jonathan Craig DUP 3,471 8.3
Edwin Poots DUP 3,457 8.3
Paul Givan DUP 3,377 8.1
Marietta Farrell SDLP Eliminated 5 2,839 6.8
Billy Bell UUP Eliminated 6 2,599 6.2
Ronnie Crawford UUP Eliminated 4 1,147 2.7
Michael Rogan GP Eliminated 4 922 2.2
Robert McCartney UKUP Eliminated 3 853 2.0
Neil Johnston Con Eliminated 2 387 0.9
John Magee WP Eliminated 2 83 0.2
Total valid vote 41,822 59.7
Turnout 42,058 60.0
Quite an advanced count by the time I accessed these results. It's clear:
New prediction: 3 DUP, 1 SF, 1 UUP, 1 Alliance
Mid Ulster:
Candidate Party Status Count Votes* %
Martin McGuinness SF Elected 1 8,065 18.2
Ian McCrea DUP Elected 1 7,608 17.2
Francie Molloy SF Elected 1 6,597 14.9
Michelle O'Neill SF Elected 2 6,432 14.5
Patsy McGlone SDLP 4,976 11.2
Billy Armstrong UUP 4,781 10.8
Kate Lagan SDLP 2,759 6.2
Walter Millar UKUP 1,210 2.7
Anne Forde DUP 1,021 2.3
Brendan McLaughlin IND 437 1.0
Margaret Marshall AP 221 0.5
Harry Hutchinson IND 170 0.4
Total valid vote 44,277 72.3
Turnout 44,728 73.1
Another that looks clear. The UUP seat looks safe for now. The UKUP vote is quite high and indeed the DUP vote is down here.
Same prediction: 3 SF, 1 SDLP, 1 DUP, 1 UUP.
Newry & Armagh:
Candidate Party Status Count Votes* %
Conor Murphy SF Elected 1 7,437 15.0
Cathal Boylan SF Elected 1 7,105 14.3
Danny Kennedy UUP 6,517 13.1
William Irwin DUP 6,418 12.9
Mickey Brady SF Elected 4 6,337 12.8
Dominic Bradley SDLP 5,318 10.7
Sharon Haughey SDLP 4,500 9.1
Paul Berry IND Eliminated 4 2,317 4.7
Davy Hyland IND Eliminated 3 2,188 4.4
Willie Frazer IND Eliminated 1 605 1.2
Brendan Morgan GP Eliminated 1 599 1.2
Máire Hendron AP Eliminated 1 278 0.6
Total valid vote 49,619 70.1
Turnout 50,165 70.8
Okay since the joke is obvious, Paul Berry is now out.
Otherwise this is one of the only seats where the UUP are leading the DUP, albeit by just 99 votes and clearly because of the DUP's local difficulties.
With so many candidates now eliminated it's clear this will be:
Same prediction: SF 3, SDLP 1, UUP 1, DUP 1
North Antrim:
Candidate Party Status Count Votes* %
Ian Paisley DUP Elected 1 7,716 17.4
Daithi McKay SF Elected 1 7,065 15.9
Ian Paisley DUP Elected 2 6,106 13.8
Mervyn Storey DUP 5,171 11.7
Robert Coulter UUP 5,047 11.4
Declan O'Loan SDLP 3,281 7.4
Deirdre Nelson DUP 2,740 6.2
Orla Black SDLP 2,129 4.8
Lyle Cubitt UKUP 1,848 4.2
Robin Swann UUP 1,281 2.9
Jayne Dunlop AP Eliminated 5 1,254 2.8
Paul McGlinchey IND Eliminated 4 383 0.9
James Gregg IND Eliminated 4 310 0.7
Total valid vote 44,331 72.4
Turnout 44,655 72.9
Another where it looks fairly stable, although the shift in votes suggests next time round some seats will be very vulnerable.
Same prediction: DUP 3, UUP 1, SF 1, SDLP 1
Belfast North:
Candidate Party Status Count Votes* %
Nigel Dodds DUP Elected 1 6,973 23.5
Gerry Kelly SF Elected 1 5,414 18.2
Caral Ni Chuilin SF Elected 4 3,680 12.4
Fred Cobain UUP 2,498 8.4
Nelson McCausland DUP 2,462 8.3
Alban Maginness SDLP 2,212 7.4
Pat Convery SDLP 1,868 6.3
William Humphrey DUP 1,673 5.6
Raymond McCord IND 1,320 4.4
Peter Emerson GP 590 2.0
Tommy McCullough AP 486 1.6
Robert McCartney UKUP 360 1.2
John Lavery WP 139 0.5
Rainbow George MPH 40 0.1
Total valid vote 29,715 60.2
Turnout 30,067 60.9
Without an idea of transfers it's very difficult to guess how the Unionist fight is going. Fred Cobain looks to be in a strong position but is very vulnerable to the votes consolidating. Given how badly the UUP is doing elsewhere I'm inclined to call this one against them.
Same prediction: DUP 3, SF 2, SDLP 1
North Down:
Candidate Party Status Count Votes* %
Alex Easton DUP Elected 1 4,946 16.1
Peter Weir DUP 3,376 11.0
Stephen Farry AP 3,131 10.2
Leslie Cree UUP 2,937 9.6
Brian Wilson GP 2,839 9.2
Alan McFarland UUP 2,245 7.3
Alan Graham DUP 2,147 7.0
Marion Smith UUP 2,098 6.8
Robert McCartney UKUP 1,806 5.9
Brian Rowan IND 1,194 3.9
Alan Chambers IND 1,129 3.7
Liam Logan SDLP 1,115 3.6
James Leslie Con Eliminated 0 864 2.8
Deaglan Page SF Eliminated 3 390 1.3
Elaine Martin PUP Eliminated 3 367 1.2
Chris Carter IND Eliminated 2 123 0.4
Total valid vote 30,707 53.4
Turnout 30,930 53.8
It looks like Bob McCartney is going OUT OUT OUT!
Otherwise this looks like a very drawn out count. But I think the UUP should just get a second seat on transfers, with Alliance hanging on and the Greens making a historic breakthrough.
Same prediction: DUP 2, UUP 2, Alliance 1, Greens 1
South Antrim:
Candidate Party Status Count Votes* %
Mitchel McLaughlin SF Elected 1 6,313 16.5
William McCrea DUP Elected 1 6,023 15.8
David Ford AP 5,007 13.1
David Burnside UUP 4,507 11.8
Trevor Clarke DUP 4,302 11.3
Mel Lucas DUP 2,840 7.4
Thomas Burns SDLP 2,721 7.1
Danny Kinahan UUP 2,391 6.3
Noreen McClelland SDLP 1,526 4.0
Stephen Nicholl UUP 927 2.4
Robert McCartney UKUP 893 2.3
Peter Whitcroft GP 507 1.3
Stephen O'Brien Con 129 0.3
Marcella Delaney WP 89 0.2
Total valid vote 38,175 58.1
Turnout 38,481 58.6
Quota 5,454 Electorate 65,654
At the top end Mitchel McLaughlin topping the poll is astounding. At the bottom end things look awfully tight between a second UUP candidate (and fortune is not smiling on them today), a third DUP candidate and any SDLP candidate. David Ford (Alliance leader) looks safe.
New prediction: DUP 3, SF 1, UUP 1, Alliance 1
David Burnside (UUP - who looks safe) has called for his party to go into opposition to the devolved administration. It seems someone at least in the UUP has an idea of a direction to go in. Burnside should contest the UUP leadership this year and settle once and for all whether or not the party is going his way.
Belfast South:
Candidate Party Status Count Votes* %
Jimmy Spratt DUP Elected 1 4,762 15.7
Alasdair McDonnell SDLP Elected 1 4,379 14.4
Alex Maskey SF 3,996 13.2
Anna Lo AP 3,829 12.6
Carmel Hanna SDLP 3,748 12.4
Michael McGimpsey UUP 2,647 8.7
Christopher Stalford DUP 2,035 6.7
Esmond Birnie UUP 1,804 5.9
Bob Stoker UUP Eliminated 0 1,122 3.7
Brenda Cooke GP 737 2.4
Andrew Park PUP 410 1.4
David Hoey UKUP 298 1.0
Jim Barbour Soc Eliminated 6 248 0.8
Paddy Lynn WP Eliminated 5 123 0.4
Roger Lomas Con Eliminated 5 108 0.4
Rainbow George MPH Eliminated 4 66 0.2
Charles Smyth PROC Eliminated 4 22 0.1
Geoffrey Wilson IND Eliminated 4 10 0.0
Total valid vote 30,344 62.0
Turnout 30,533 62.4
Astonishingly people are talking about Alliance taking a Unionist seat - but it could well happen. Certainly the votes imply a UUP->Alliance shift. Indeed the DUP vote is not as strong as they'd like, or very well balanced. Sinn Fein have defied all predictions of a loss here and even improved their vote share.
New prediction: SDLP 2, DUP 1, UUP 1, Alliance 1
South Down:
Candidate Party Status Count Votes* %
Caitriona Ruane SF Elected 7 6,334 13.7
Margaret Ritchie SDLP 5,838 12.7
PJ Bradley SDLP 5,652 12.3
Jim Wells DUP 5,542 12.0
Willie Clarke SF 5,138 11.1
John McCallister UUP 4,447 9.6
Michael Carr SDLP 2,972 6.4
Eamonn McConvey SF Eliminated 7 2,662 5.8
William Burns DUP 2,611 5.7
Ciaran Mussen GP Eliminated 6 1,622 3.5
Henry Reilly UKIP Eliminated 5 1,229 2.7
David Griffin AP Eliminated 4 691 1.5
Martin Cunningham IND Eliminated 4 434 0.9
Nelson Wharton UKUP Eliminated 4 424 0.9
Peter Bowles Con Eliminated 3 391 0.8
Malachi Curran LP Eliminated 2 123 0.3
Total valid vote 46,110 64.3
Turnout 46,623 65.0
With no idea as to transfers it's hard to be sure, but it looks as though the UUP will hang on here.
Same prediction: SDLP 2, SF 2, DUP 1, UUP 1
Strangford:
Candidate Party Status Count Votes* %
Iris Robinson DUP Elected 1 5,917 16.4
Jim Shannon DUP 4,788 13.3
Kieran McCarthy AP 4,085 11.3
Simon Hamilton DUP 3,889 10.8
David McNarry UUP 3,709 10.3
Michelle McIlveen DUP 3,468 9.6
Joe Boyle SDLP 3,068 8.5
Angus Carson UUP 2,128 5.9
Dermot Kennedy SF 1,089 3.0
George Ennis UKUP 872 2.4
Stephanie Sim GP 868 2.4
Michael Henderson UUP 675 1.9
David Gregg IND 650 1.8
Bob Little Con 508 1.4
Cedric Wilson IND Eliminated 2 305 0.8
Total valid vote 36,019 54.0
Turnout 36,340 54.5
This longs complex because both a second UUP and a fourth DUP seat are in or out of the realms of possibility. The DUP have balanced a lot better - so for now I'll call it their way:
New prediction: DUP 4, UUP 1, Alliance 1
Upper Bann:
Candidate Party Status Count Votes* %
John O'Dowd SF Elected 1 7,733 18.0
David Simpson DUP Elected 1 6,828 15.9
Sam Gardiner UUP 5,135 12.0
Dolores Kelly SDLP 4,689 10.9
Stephen Moutray DUP 3,663 8.5
Dessie Ward SF 3,118 7.3
John McCrum DUP 2,975 6.9
George Savage UUP 2,167 5.1
Arnold Hatch UUP 1,815 4.2
David Calvert IND 1,332 3.1
Helen Corry GP 1,156 2.7
Sheila McQuaid AP 798 1.9
Patrick McAleenan SDLP Eliminated 4 761 1.8
Barry Toman IND Eliminated 3 386 0.9
David Fry Con Eliminated 3 248 0.6
Suzanne Peeples IND Eliminated 3 78 0.2
Total valid vote 42,882 60.6
Turnout 43,235 61.1
Quota 6,127 Electorate 70,716
It seems that Sinn Fein may gain from the UUP here.
New prediction: DUP 2, SF 2, UUP 1, SDLP 1
Belfast West:
Candidate Party Status Count Votes* %
Gerry Adams SF Elected 1 6,029 17.8
Sue Ramsey SF Elected 2 4,715 14.0
Paul Maskey SF 4,368 12.9
Jennifer McCann SF 4,265 12.6
Fra McCann SF 4,254 12.6
Diane Dodds DUP 3,661 10.8
Alex Attwood SDLP 3,036 9.0
Margaret Walsh SDLP 1,074 3.2
Sean Mitchell PBP 774 2.3
Louis West UUP 558 1.7
John Lowry WP 434 1.3
Geraldine Taylor IND Eliminated 5 427 1.3
Dan McGuinness AP Eliminated 4 127 0.4
Rainbow George MPH Eliminated 4 68 0.2
Total valid vote 33,790 66.5
Turnout 34,238 67.4
Sinn Fein have balanced spectacularly and look on course for five seats. This leaves the last seat between the SDLP and the DUP - with the current balance favouring the former.
New prediction: SF 5, SDLP 1
West Tyrone:
Candidate Party Status Count Votes* %
Barry McElduff SF Elected 1 6,971 16.8
Pat Doherty SF Elected 1 6,709 16.2
Claire McGill SF Elected 3 4,757 11.5
Thomas Buchanan DUP 4,625 11.2
Allan Bresland DUP 4,244 10.2
Kieran Deeny IND 3,776 9.1
Derek Hussey UUP 3,686 8.9
Jo Deehan SDLP 2,689 6.5
Eugene McMenamin SDLP 2,272 5.5
Seamus Shields SDLP 1,057 2.5
Joe O'Neill IND 448 1.1
Robert McCartney UKUP 220 0.5
Total valid vote 41,454 71.0
Turnout 41,839 71.7
Quota 5,923 Electorate 58,367
Messy as fuck! Sinn Fein have finally won all three seats and the DUP are on course to hold their seat - and indeed have managed to outbalance the UUP. But with three SDLP candidates fighting for a single seat and Kieran Deeny doing well there's a lot to play for.
New prediction: SF 3, DUP 1, Deeny 1, SDLP 1
Over all it's quite a shock that the UUP is still sinking further. The party seems in terminal decline now.
Sunday, March 04, 2007
Ex leaders behaving badly
Anyone who thinks that Edward Heath and Margaret Thatcher, to name but two, behaved badly in the years after being deposed as leader might want to consider that they could have been even worse.
Slugger O'Toole highlights the recent appearance of the campaign trail by former Ulster Unionist leader Lord Molyneaux of Killead. Only he's been canvassing for Ian Paisley's Democratic Unionists! (Slugger O'Toole: Oops he did it again!) Worse still he's been campaigning for them in Belfast North - where the UUP is facing a tough fight to hold its final seat against the DUP.
This is, of course, not the first time Molyneaux has publicly undermined his party - in the 2005 general election he joined with outgoing UUP MP for Belfast South Martin Smyth to endorse the DUP candidate for the seat, resulting in neither Unionist party winning. But one has to wonder why Molyneaux does this. His own position on the province was long that it should be integrated with the rest of the United Kingdom and that a local assembly would just keep the border question open. And he fiercely opposed power sharing, even with constitutional nationalists. So why is endorsing the DUP on their quest to go into government with Sinn Fein? Is the man so bitter that he's thrown all principles to the wind merely to spit his old party colleagues?
Slugger O'Toole highlights the recent appearance of the campaign trail by former Ulster Unionist leader Lord Molyneaux of Killead. Only he's been canvassing for Ian Paisley's Democratic Unionists! (Slugger O'Toole: Oops he did it again!) Worse still he's been campaigning for them in Belfast North - where the UUP is facing a tough fight to hold its final seat against the DUP.
This is, of course, not the first time Molyneaux has publicly undermined his party - in the 2005 general election he joined with outgoing UUP MP for Belfast South Martin Smyth to endorse the DUP candidate for the seat, resulting in neither Unionist party winning. But one has to wonder why Molyneaux does this. His own position on the province was long that it should be integrated with the rest of the United Kingdom and that a local assembly would just keep the border question open. And he fiercely opposed power sharing, even with constitutional nationalists. So why is endorsing the DUP on their quest to go into government with Sinn Fein? Is the man so bitter that he's thrown all principles to the wind merely to spit his old party colleagues?
Saturday, February 17, 2007
Northern Ireland election predictions
As previously promised, with these scheduled for March 7th, here are my seat by seat predictions:
(For those not familiar with NI politics, the Assembly is elected by Single Transferable Vote, with six members elected from each of the 18 Westminster constituencies. Nick Whyte has a very useful and heavily cited website - Northern Ireland Elections - with the recent electoral history for each seat.)
Please note these were written a few weeks ago, before the final confirmation of candidatures and some recent developments.
Belfast West
Previous results: 1998 4 Sinn Fein (SF), 2 Social Democratic and Labour Party (SDLP); 2003 4 SF, 1 SDLP, 1 Democratic Unionist Party (DUP) (DUP gain from SDLP although in practice the DUP just snatched the seat from Sinn Fein)
One of the easiest to start with. Sinn Fein should retain their current four seats, whils the SDLP vote may be in decline but is still enough to retain their seat. This leaves the sixth seat, currently held by the DUP. Recent elections have shown that although the overall Unionist vote doesn't quite reach a quota it is relatively resiliant and the DUP have been doing ever better at consolidating it. Sinn Fein are good at vote management but balancing five candidates without any leakage is a tall order. I think the DUP have the factors in their favour.
Prediction: SF 4, SDLP 1, DUP 1 (no change)
Belfast South
Previous results: 1998 2 Ulster Unionist Party (UUP), 2 SDLP, 1 DUP, 1 Northern Ireland Women's Coalition (NIWC); 2003 2 UUP, 2 SDLP, 1 DUP, 1 SF (SF gain from NIWC)
Also of note: Allianace won one of the five seats here in the 1996 Forum, albeit elected on a party list basis. Their candidate came third in 1998 but fell behind four others on transfers.
A difficult one to predict on the basis of recent election results. The Women's Coalition has now folded and Alliance are optimistic about gaining votes as a result. The general election result seems to have had quite a lot of tactical voting whilst the locals suggest things are tight.
I think three seats will remain Unionist, with recent results suggesting a 2 DUP, 1 UUP split. There are definitely two Nationalist seats and the SDLP are considerably ahead of Sinn Fein, who have been affected by some local factors. However Alliance are optimistic and have selected a candidate from the Chinese community, who may or may not bring in currently unpredictable votes. However on the votes alone Alliance have appeared close before and failed to come through.
Prediction: 2 DUP, 2 SDLP, 1 UUP, 1 SF (DUP gain 1 from UUP)
Belfast East
Previous results: 1998 2 DUP, 2 UUP, 1 PUP, 1 Alliance; 2003 2 DUP, 2 UUP, 1 PUP, 1 Alliance (no change)
The DUP have quite a history of vote mismanagement in this constituency, getting fewer seats than the first preferences implied in 1975 (for the Convention), 1982 (for the Prior Assembly) and 2003. Last time both the PUP and Alliance are cited as the beneficiaries. David Ervine was facing an uphill struggle for re-election and with his death I think the PUP's chances are gone. The UUP have actually seen their vote increase in recent years, mainly at the expense of Alliance (historically this was Alliance's strongest seat) but I don't think it's anywhere near enough to make a third seat viable (and the UUP is historically bad at vote management). Alliance should hang on.
Prediction: 3 DUP, 2 UUP, 1 Alliance (DUP gain 1 from PUP)
Belfast North
Previous results: 1998 1 SF, 1 DUP, 1 SDLP, 1 UUP, 1 PUP, 1 independent anti-Belfast Agreement Unionist; 2003 2 DUP, 2 SF, 1 SDLP, 1 UUP (DUP gain 1 from ind U, SF gain 1 from PUP or the other way round)
This seat used to be quite unpredictable due to the main parties all doing well - in the 1996 forum the DUP, SDLP, SF and UUP all polled between 17% and 19%, with other parties taking a quarter of the vote. Since then the UUP have collapsed big time, SF and the DUP have both grown and consolidated the vote. On the nationalist side the SDLP are in a strong position to hold their seat, leaving two for Sinn Fein, whilst on the Unionist side the DUP vote is looking like reaching three seats.
Prediction 3 DUP, 2 SF, 1 SDLP (DUP gain 1 from UUP)
North Antrim
Previous results: 1998 DUP 3, UUP 2, SDLP 1; 2003 DUP 3, UUP 1, SDLP 1, SF 1 (SF gain 1 from UUP)
The 2005 Westminster elections implied the DUP could hit four seats, although Ian Paisley normally outpolls his party as a whole and vote management is unlikely to make up the gap. The UUP vote has been declining here but they seem strong enough to hold onto their one seat. On the nationalist side Sinn Fein's growth has been enough to secure their current seat, whilst the SDLP's decline doesn't look enough to make their seat vulnerable, especially when it seems doubtful there'll be a strong challenger.
Prediction: 3 DUP, 1 UUP, 1 SDLP, 1 SF (no change)
East Antrim
Previous results: 1998 2 UUP, 1 DUP, 1 Alliance, 1 UK Unionist Party (UKUP), 1 SDLP; 2003 3 DUP, 2 UUP, 1 Alliance (DUP gain 1 from UKUP and 1 from SDLP)
The 1998 result was surprising both for the UKUP breakthrough and the SDLP seat - they gained only 6% of the vote and had only one councillor in the seat but benefitted from transfers and lousy vote balancing all round to narrowly beat the DUP for the final seat. In 2003 a defragmentation effect meant that despite both the SDLP vote and the nationalist vote as a whole increasing the seat was lost. More recent results suggest the trend is going Sinn Fein's way and on current boundaries it's very doubtful a nationalist seat will be gained in the near future. The Alliance seat looks secure for now. Of the Unionist seats I think the DUP will find it difficult to make it to a fourth seat, leaving it likely that the UUP will keep their two. (As this is the first appearance of a past UKUP seat, I'm generally sceptical that anti-St Andrews Agreement Unionists will be able to mount a significant enough challenge to upset the results and Bob McCartney has fallen out with so many and already shattered one developing party so he'll find it hard to find sustainable allies.)
Prediction: 3 DUP, 2 UUP, 1 Alliance (no change)
South Antrim
Previous results: 1998 2 UUP, 1 DUP, 1 SDLP, 1 UKUP, 1 Alliance; 2003: 2 UUP, 2 DUP, 1 SDLP, 1 Alliance
Another seat where the UKUP's past success was just a flash in the pan. Alliance's David Ford (now the party leader) took the final seat in 1998 and managed to hold it by the skin of his teeth in 2003, scraping home on Unionist transfers after the Sinn Fein candidate had claimed victory! The four current Unionist seats should stay as they are but this leaves two seats with the DUP, SDLP, Alliance and Sinn Fein all looking hopeful and all with a serious chance!
The SDLP are still stronger in the local government elections which suggests they might edge Sinn Fein if there's only one nationalist elected. The DUP vote in the Westminster election was, if anything, probably below what it might have been - William McCrea is a *deeply* divisive figure, even compared to Ian Paisley and Peter Robinson. The political demise of Alliance is often predicted and often fails to happen but notably this is a seat where they've never topped 12% on the current boundaries and in most elections they have trailed both nationalist parties. My guess is that they'll lose out this time.
Prediction: 2 DUP, 2 UUP, 1 SDLP, 1 SF (SF gain 1 from Alliance)
Lagan Valley
Previous results: 1998 UUP 2, DUP 1, Alliance 1, UKUP 1, SDLP 1; 2003: UUP 3, DUP 1, Alliance 1, SDLP 1 (UUP gain 1 from UKUP)
However since the 2003 election Jeffrey Donaldson and Nora Beare both moved from the UUP to the DUP.
Prior to Donaldson's change of party this seat saw the DUP repeatedly failing to advance significantly. All this has changed with Donaldson's party and both Westminster and local government elections suggest that the DUP will win at least three. I'm sceptical that they can make it to four although this is not impossible. The UUP should hold onto one seat and on the local government results they may have a chance of two.
The two current non-Unionist seats are amongst the most open and unpredictable in the entire election. The sitting Alliance and SDLP members are both retiring,and both are estimated to have a personal vote that's been crucial in past elections. The Alliance vote is generally in decline here anyway and I think they're likely to lose their seat without Close. By contrast the Sinn Fein vote is growing. However there clearly aren't two nationalist quotas. What complicates it all is uncertainty as to where Close's personal vote might go. I'm inclined to call one seat for Sinn Fein and at a stab the other for the UUP.
Prediction: 3 DUP, 2 UUP, 1 SF (DUP gain 2, SF gain 1, UUP lose 1, SDLP lose 1, Alliance lose 1)
Foyle
Previous results: 1998 SDLP 3, SF 2, DUP 1; 2003 SDLP 3, SF 2, DUP 1 (no change)
Sinn Fein have been heavily targetting this constituency in the hope of both a third seat and the Westminster seat for some time now, but it keeps eluding them. Mitchell McLaughlin is transferring to South Antrim in the hope of gaining a seat there, making a shift even less likely. Eamonn McCann has achieved comparitively good results for the Socialist Environmental Alliance but I doubt they'll make a breakthrough either. The DUP seat looks safe.
Prediction: 3 SDLP, 2 SF, 1 DUP (no change)
East Londonderry
Previous results: 1998 UUP 2, SDLP 2, DUP 1, independent anti-Belfast Agreement Unionist 1; 2003 UUP 2, DUP 2, SDLP 1, SF 1 (DUP gain 1 from ind U, SF gain 1 from SDLP)
The two nationalist seats look safe. On the Unionist side the question is whether the DUP can take one of the UUP seats. The UUP vote appears to be levelling off here, whilst the DUP have been performing better in Westminster elections than others. I'm doubtful they'll breakthrough this time.
Prediction: 2 UUP, 2 DUP, 1 SDLP, 1 SF (no change)
Mid Ulster
Previous results: 1998: SF 3, SDLP 1, DUP 1, UUP 1; 2003: SF 3, SDLP 1, DUP 1, UUP 1 (no change)
Sinn Fein appear to be levelling out here, so they should hold all three seats. The SDLP has also been rather static since 1997, with all results within 17-22% so they should hold their single seat. The DUP should also hold their own seat (is Willie McCrea going to restand here or relocate to South Antrim?). The UUP seat is vulnerable to the DUP but it will take a push. I'm doubtful it will happen.
Prediction: 3 SF, 1 SDLP, 1 DUP, 1 UUP (no change)
West Tyrone
Previous results: 1998: SF 2, SDLP 2, DUP 1, UUP 1; 2003: SD 2, SDLP 1, DUP 1, UUP 1, Independent 1 (Ind gain 1 from SDLP)
A very difficult one to predict becase of Kieran Deeny, a local doctor who was elected in 2003 on the single issue of saving the hospital in Omagh and got a huge vote in the 2005 Westminster election (and, it seems, a genuinely cross community vote, although some was more anti-Sinn Fein than pro hospital). His transfers in 2003 suggest that the seat he won would otherwise have been gained by Sinn Fein.
There's not much precedent for single issue independents seeking re-election in Northern Ireland. Some independents in the Republic have managed to find new issues to get re-elected on; ditto some of the independent Mayors in the UK. Richard Taylor was re-elected in Kidderminster in 2005, but with a third of his vote gone and Health Concern as been drying up at the local government level. From what little I've heard it seems the hospital campaign in Omagh doesn't have the momentum it did in 2003, suggesting that Deeny will struggle to get back in if he stands. Equally his vote base may be shifting. As a further complication, one of the SDLP candidates is an Omagh based local doctor herself.
In a Deenyless election it's relatively easy to predict SF taking his seat whilst the other three parties hold theirs. With Deeny in the field, it's easy to predict 2 seats for Sinn Fein and 1 for the DUP, with the other three going to any combination of Deeny, SF, SDLP and UUP. As a wild guess, I'll go for the UUP holding onto their seat, the SDLP holding theirs and Deeny taking the other.
(Since writing this, it's been confirmed that Deeny is restanding. But I'll post my original thoughts anyway.)
Prediction: Without Deeny: SF 3, SDLP 1, DUP 1, UUP 1 (SF gain from Independent)
With Deeny: SF 2, SDLP 1, DUP 1, Ind 1 (no change)
Fermanagh & South Tyrone
Previous results: 1998: SF 2, UUP 2, SDLP 1, DUP 1; 2003: SF 2, UUP 2, SDLP 1, DUP 1 (no change)
However since the 2003 election Arlene Foster moved from the UUP to the DUP.
Recent election results have been comparitively static save for a UUP to DUP shift coinciding with Foster's defection. Other than Foster's party change being upheld, I doubt there will be notable gains.
Prediction: SF 2, DUP 2, UUP 1, SDLP 1 (DUP gain 1 from UUP)
Newry & Armagh
Previous results: 1998: SDLP 2, SF 2, UUP 1, DUP 1; 2003: SF 3, SDLP 2, UUP 1, DUP 1 (SF gain 1 from SDLP)
Since the Assembly election Paul Berry has left the DUP to become an independent Unionist.
Let's keep the joke out of this thread! Davy Hyland and Patricia O'Rawe have both been deselected, although O'Rawe may be reinstated. Hyland has left the party. Both Hyland and Berry seem likely to stand as anti-St Andrews Agreement candidates.
Berry has been at the forefront of the DUP growth here and even when the stories were at their height he still beat the UUP in the general election (albeit with about the only clear swing to the UUP). In the past Unionists who have fallen out with their parties generally haven't managed to at the very least deprive their old party of the seat, let alone win it themselves when running as an independent (with the notable exception of James Kilfedder and, arguably, Bob McCartney, though North Down is electorally a law unto itself) and there's no party with an existing machine for Berry to go to (unlike Donaldson, Beare and Foster). So I think the two Unionist parties will continue to hold their seats.
On the nationalist side, the local government results suggest that the SDLP has a chance of retaking a second seat from Sinn Fein, and the latter's problems may help to fragment some votes. However the SDLP vote hasn't noticably climbed so I reckon Sinn Fein will edge it.
Prediction: SF 3, SDLP 1, UUP 1, DUP 1 (no change)
Upper Bann
Previous results: 1998: UUP 2, SDLP 1, DUP 1, SF 1, independent anti-Belfast Agreement Unionist 1; 2003: UUP 2, DUP 2, SDLP 1, SF 1 (DUP gain 1 from ind U)
The two nationalist seats look safe. On the Unionist side the votes have some way to go for the DUP to take a third seat from the UUP. This looks like another no change.
Prediction: UUP 2, DUP 2, SDLP 1, SF 1 (no change)
South Down
Previous results: 1998: SDLP 3, SF 1, UUP 1, DUP 1; 2003: SDLP 2, SF 2, UUP 1, DUP 1 (SF gain 1 from SDLP)
Another seat where the recent election results suggest no change all round. There appears to have been some tactical voting for the SDLP by otherwise UUP voters for the Westminster election. The Greens are targetting this seat with a local councillor but it seems doubtful they'll come remotely close.
Prediction: SDLP 2, SF 2, UUP 1, DUP 1 (no change)
Strangford
Previous results: 1998: UUP 2, DUP 2, Alliance 1, UKUP 1; 2003: DUP 3, UUP 2, Alliance 1 (DUP gain 1 from UKUP)
This is becoming the DUP's strongest constituency and they're pretty much assured of three seats. A fourth is not out of the question but as with North Antrim this isn't the easiest thing to achieve and their Westminster result seems to be ahead of their core vote. The UUP vote has been declining and their second seat will need transfers to survive (and bad vote balancing could sink them). Alliance are looking decidely shakey and didn't get quota last time, though local government results give them more optimism. The SDLP have been hoping to make a breakthrough for a while but I doubt it will happen. As a stab I'll go for another no change.
Prediction: DUP 3, UUP 2, Alliance 1 (no change)
North Down
Previous results: 1998: UUP 3, UKUP 1, Alliance 1, NIWC 1; 2003 UUP 2, DUP 2, UKUP 1, Alliance 1 (DUP gain 1 from UUP and 1 from NIWC)
This is one of the most difficult to predict as Westminster elections have seen a lot of tactical voting whilst there are a lot of independent and small party votes in locals. Last time round the election counts were almost completely based on eliminations. Alliance's Eileen Bell is standing down and we also have the recent move of ex Alliance turned independent councillor Brian Wilson (who got 4.4% of the vote last time) to the Greens which could put them into serious contention (as the local results hint). The Conservatives are also targetting the seat with James Leslie, a former UUP minister. All manner of votes seem up for grabs.
I think the following can reasonably be expected: 1 seat definitely for the DUP, 2 seats definitely for the UUP. I'm sceptical they can take a third seat. 1 seat definitely for either the DUP or the UKUP - I suspect the DUP this time. Of the remaining two seats I'm very doubtful the DUP could take a third. UKUP's McCartney will need a boost in his appeal - last time he scraped home and his party's local government base has evaporated, although he's always polled in excess of it, and current politics make it unlikely the DUP will want to throw him a lifeline. Alliance's local government base gives them cause for optimism, though it's only two points down from last time, yet in the last Assembly elections they still struggled. With the Greens running a strong candidate (and ex North Down Alliance) they could be able to surprise us. As a stab in the dark let's have a flutter on both the Greens and Alliance taking the last two seats.
Prediction: UUP 2, DUP 2, Alliance 1, Greens 1 (Greens gain 1 from UKUP)
Overall (compared to 2003)
DUP = 36 (up 6)
SF = 26 or 27 (up 2 or 3)
UUP = 23 (down 4)
SDLP = 17 (down 1)
Alliance = 4 (down 2)
Greens = 1 (up 1)
Independent = 1 or 0
UKUP = 0 (down 1)
PUP = 0 (down 1)
Feel free to laugh at these results when some of these predictions are proved totally wrong on the night!
(For those not familiar with NI politics, the Assembly is elected by Single Transferable Vote, with six members elected from each of the 18 Westminster constituencies. Nick Whyte has a very useful and heavily cited website - Northern Ireland Elections - with the recent electoral history for each seat.)
Please note these were written a few weeks ago, before the final confirmation of candidatures and some recent developments.
Belfast West
Previous results: 1998 4 Sinn Fein (SF), 2 Social Democratic and Labour Party (SDLP); 2003 4 SF, 1 SDLP, 1 Democratic Unionist Party (DUP) (DUP gain from SDLP although in practice the DUP just snatched the seat from Sinn Fein)
One of the easiest to start with. Sinn Fein should retain their current four seats, whils the SDLP vote may be in decline but is still enough to retain their seat. This leaves the sixth seat, currently held by the DUP. Recent elections have shown that although the overall Unionist vote doesn't quite reach a quota it is relatively resiliant and the DUP have been doing ever better at consolidating it. Sinn Fein are good at vote management but balancing five candidates without any leakage is a tall order. I think the DUP have the factors in their favour.
Prediction: SF 4, SDLP 1, DUP 1 (no change)
Belfast South
Previous results: 1998 2 Ulster Unionist Party (UUP), 2 SDLP, 1 DUP, 1 Northern Ireland Women's Coalition (NIWC); 2003 2 UUP, 2 SDLP, 1 DUP, 1 SF (SF gain from NIWC)
Also of note: Allianace won one of the five seats here in the 1996 Forum, albeit elected on a party list basis. Their candidate came third in 1998 but fell behind four others on transfers.
A difficult one to predict on the basis of recent election results. The Women's Coalition has now folded and Alliance are optimistic about gaining votes as a result. The general election result seems to have had quite a lot of tactical voting whilst the locals suggest things are tight.
I think three seats will remain Unionist, with recent results suggesting a 2 DUP, 1 UUP split. There are definitely two Nationalist seats and the SDLP are considerably ahead of Sinn Fein, who have been affected by some local factors. However Alliance are optimistic and have selected a candidate from the Chinese community, who may or may not bring in currently unpredictable votes. However on the votes alone Alliance have appeared close before and failed to come through.
Prediction: 2 DUP, 2 SDLP, 1 UUP, 1 SF (DUP gain 1 from UUP)
Belfast East
Previous results: 1998 2 DUP, 2 UUP, 1 PUP, 1 Alliance; 2003 2 DUP, 2 UUP, 1 PUP, 1 Alliance (no change)
The DUP have quite a history of vote mismanagement in this constituency, getting fewer seats than the first preferences implied in 1975 (for the Convention), 1982 (for the Prior Assembly) and 2003. Last time both the PUP and Alliance are cited as the beneficiaries. David Ervine was facing an uphill struggle for re-election and with his death I think the PUP's chances are gone. The UUP have actually seen their vote increase in recent years, mainly at the expense of Alliance (historically this was Alliance's strongest seat) but I don't think it's anywhere near enough to make a third seat viable (and the UUP is historically bad at vote management). Alliance should hang on.
Prediction: 3 DUP, 2 UUP, 1 Alliance (DUP gain 1 from PUP)
Belfast North
Previous results: 1998 1 SF, 1 DUP, 1 SDLP, 1 UUP, 1 PUP, 1 independent anti-Belfast Agreement Unionist; 2003 2 DUP, 2 SF, 1 SDLP, 1 UUP (DUP gain 1 from ind U, SF gain 1 from PUP or the other way round)
This seat used to be quite unpredictable due to the main parties all doing well - in the 1996 forum the DUP, SDLP, SF and UUP all polled between 17% and 19%, with other parties taking a quarter of the vote. Since then the UUP have collapsed big time, SF and the DUP have both grown and consolidated the vote. On the nationalist side the SDLP are in a strong position to hold their seat, leaving two for Sinn Fein, whilst on the Unionist side the DUP vote is looking like reaching three seats.
Prediction 3 DUP, 2 SF, 1 SDLP (DUP gain 1 from UUP)
North Antrim
Previous results: 1998 DUP 3, UUP 2, SDLP 1; 2003 DUP 3, UUP 1, SDLP 1, SF 1 (SF gain 1 from UUP)
The 2005 Westminster elections implied the DUP could hit four seats, although Ian Paisley normally outpolls his party as a whole and vote management is unlikely to make up the gap. The UUP vote has been declining here but they seem strong enough to hold onto their one seat. On the nationalist side Sinn Fein's growth has been enough to secure their current seat, whilst the SDLP's decline doesn't look enough to make their seat vulnerable, especially when it seems doubtful there'll be a strong challenger.
Prediction: 3 DUP, 1 UUP, 1 SDLP, 1 SF (no change)
East Antrim
Previous results: 1998 2 UUP, 1 DUP, 1 Alliance, 1 UK Unionist Party (UKUP), 1 SDLP; 2003 3 DUP, 2 UUP, 1 Alliance (DUP gain 1 from UKUP and 1 from SDLP)
The 1998 result was surprising both for the UKUP breakthrough and the SDLP seat - they gained only 6% of the vote and had only one councillor in the seat but benefitted from transfers and lousy vote balancing all round to narrowly beat the DUP for the final seat. In 2003 a defragmentation effect meant that despite both the SDLP vote and the nationalist vote as a whole increasing the seat was lost. More recent results suggest the trend is going Sinn Fein's way and on current boundaries it's very doubtful a nationalist seat will be gained in the near future. The Alliance seat looks secure for now. Of the Unionist seats I think the DUP will find it difficult to make it to a fourth seat, leaving it likely that the UUP will keep their two. (As this is the first appearance of a past UKUP seat, I'm generally sceptical that anti-St Andrews Agreement Unionists will be able to mount a significant enough challenge to upset the results and Bob McCartney has fallen out with so many and already shattered one developing party so he'll find it hard to find sustainable allies.)
Prediction: 3 DUP, 2 UUP, 1 Alliance (no change)
South Antrim
Previous results: 1998 2 UUP, 1 DUP, 1 SDLP, 1 UKUP, 1 Alliance; 2003: 2 UUP, 2 DUP, 1 SDLP, 1 Alliance
Another seat where the UKUP's past success was just a flash in the pan. Alliance's David Ford (now the party leader) took the final seat in 1998 and managed to hold it by the skin of his teeth in 2003, scraping home on Unionist transfers after the Sinn Fein candidate had claimed victory! The four current Unionist seats should stay as they are but this leaves two seats with the DUP, SDLP, Alliance and Sinn Fein all looking hopeful and all with a serious chance!
The SDLP are still stronger in the local government elections which suggests they might edge Sinn Fein if there's only one nationalist elected. The DUP vote in the Westminster election was, if anything, probably below what it might have been - William McCrea is a *deeply* divisive figure, even compared to Ian Paisley and Peter Robinson. The political demise of Alliance is often predicted and often fails to happen but notably this is a seat where they've never topped 12% on the current boundaries and in most elections they have trailed both nationalist parties. My guess is that they'll lose out this time.
Prediction: 2 DUP, 2 UUP, 1 SDLP, 1 SF (SF gain 1 from Alliance)
Lagan Valley
Previous results: 1998 UUP 2, DUP 1, Alliance 1, UKUP 1, SDLP 1; 2003: UUP 3, DUP 1, Alliance 1, SDLP 1 (UUP gain 1 from UKUP)
However since the 2003 election Jeffrey Donaldson and Nora Beare both moved from the UUP to the DUP.
Prior to Donaldson's change of party this seat saw the DUP repeatedly failing to advance significantly. All this has changed with Donaldson's party and both Westminster and local government elections suggest that the DUP will win at least three. I'm sceptical that they can make it to four although this is not impossible. The UUP should hold onto one seat and on the local government results they may have a chance of two.
The two current non-Unionist seats are amongst the most open and unpredictable in the entire election. The sitting Alliance and SDLP members are both retiring,and both are estimated to have a personal vote that's been crucial in past elections. The Alliance vote is generally in decline here anyway and I think they're likely to lose their seat without Close. By contrast the Sinn Fein vote is growing. However there clearly aren't two nationalist quotas. What complicates it all is uncertainty as to where Close's personal vote might go. I'm inclined to call one seat for Sinn Fein and at a stab the other for the UUP.
Prediction: 3 DUP, 2 UUP, 1 SF (DUP gain 2, SF gain 1, UUP lose 1, SDLP lose 1, Alliance lose 1)
Foyle
Previous results: 1998 SDLP 3, SF 2, DUP 1; 2003 SDLP 3, SF 2, DUP 1 (no change)
Sinn Fein have been heavily targetting this constituency in the hope of both a third seat and the Westminster seat for some time now, but it keeps eluding them. Mitchell McLaughlin is transferring to South Antrim in the hope of gaining a seat there, making a shift even less likely. Eamonn McCann has achieved comparitively good results for the Socialist Environmental Alliance but I doubt they'll make a breakthrough either. The DUP seat looks safe.
Prediction: 3 SDLP, 2 SF, 1 DUP (no change)
East Londonderry
Previous results: 1998 UUP 2, SDLP 2, DUP 1, independent anti-Belfast Agreement Unionist 1; 2003 UUP 2, DUP 2, SDLP 1, SF 1 (DUP gain 1 from ind U, SF gain 1 from SDLP)
The two nationalist seats look safe. On the Unionist side the question is whether the DUP can take one of the UUP seats. The UUP vote appears to be levelling off here, whilst the DUP have been performing better in Westminster elections than others. I'm doubtful they'll breakthrough this time.
Prediction: 2 UUP, 2 DUP, 1 SDLP, 1 SF (no change)
Mid Ulster
Previous results: 1998: SF 3, SDLP 1, DUP 1, UUP 1; 2003: SF 3, SDLP 1, DUP 1, UUP 1 (no change)
Sinn Fein appear to be levelling out here, so they should hold all three seats. The SDLP has also been rather static since 1997, with all results within 17-22% so they should hold their single seat. The DUP should also hold their own seat (is Willie McCrea going to restand here or relocate to South Antrim?). The UUP seat is vulnerable to the DUP but it will take a push. I'm doubtful it will happen.
Prediction: 3 SF, 1 SDLP, 1 DUP, 1 UUP (no change)
West Tyrone
Previous results: 1998: SF 2, SDLP 2, DUP 1, UUP 1; 2003: SD 2, SDLP 1, DUP 1, UUP 1, Independent 1 (Ind gain 1 from SDLP)
A very difficult one to predict becase of Kieran Deeny, a local doctor who was elected in 2003 on the single issue of saving the hospital in Omagh and got a huge vote in the 2005 Westminster election (and, it seems, a genuinely cross community vote, although some was more anti-Sinn Fein than pro hospital). His transfers in 2003 suggest that the seat he won would otherwise have been gained by Sinn Fein.
There's not much precedent for single issue independents seeking re-election in Northern Ireland. Some independents in the Republic have managed to find new issues to get re-elected on; ditto some of the independent Mayors in the UK. Richard Taylor was re-elected in Kidderminster in 2005, but with a third of his vote gone and Health Concern as been drying up at the local government level. From what little I've heard it seems the hospital campaign in Omagh doesn't have the momentum it did in 2003, suggesting that Deeny will struggle to get back in if he stands. Equally his vote base may be shifting. As a further complication, one of the SDLP candidates is an Omagh based local doctor herself.
In a Deenyless election it's relatively easy to predict SF taking his seat whilst the other three parties hold theirs. With Deeny in the field, it's easy to predict 2 seats for Sinn Fein and 1 for the DUP, with the other three going to any combination of Deeny, SF, SDLP and UUP. As a wild guess, I'll go for the UUP holding onto their seat, the SDLP holding theirs and Deeny taking the other.
(Since writing this, it's been confirmed that Deeny is restanding. But I'll post my original thoughts anyway.)
Prediction: Without Deeny: SF 3, SDLP 1, DUP 1, UUP 1 (SF gain from Independent)
With Deeny: SF 2, SDLP 1, DUP 1, Ind 1 (no change)
Fermanagh & South Tyrone
Previous results: 1998: SF 2, UUP 2, SDLP 1, DUP 1; 2003: SF 2, UUP 2, SDLP 1, DUP 1 (no change)
However since the 2003 election Arlene Foster moved from the UUP to the DUP.
Recent election results have been comparitively static save for a UUP to DUP shift coinciding with Foster's defection. Other than Foster's party change being upheld, I doubt there will be notable gains.
Prediction: SF 2, DUP 2, UUP 1, SDLP 1 (DUP gain 1 from UUP)
Newry & Armagh
Previous results: 1998: SDLP 2, SF 2, UUP 1, DUP 1; 2003: SF 3, SDLP 2, UUP 1, DUP 1 (SF gain 1 from SDLP)
Since the Assembly election Paul Berry has left the DUP to become an independent Unionist.
Let's keep the joke out of this thread! Davy Hyland and Patricia O'Rawe have both been deselected, although O'Rawe may be reinstated. Hyland has left the party. Both Hyland and Berry seem likely to stand as anti-St Andrews Agreement candidates.
Berry has been at the forefront of the DUP growth here and even when the stories were at their height he still beat the UUP in the general election (albeit with about the only clear swing to the UUP). In the past Unionists who have fallen out with their parties generally haven't managed to at the very least deprive their old party of the seat, let alone win it themselves when running as an independent (with the notable exception of James Kilfedder and, arguably, Bob McCartney, though North Down is electorally a law unto itself) and there's no party with an existing machine for Berry to go to (unlike Donaldson, Beare and Foster). So I think the two Unionist parties will continue to hold their seats.
On the nationalist side, the local government results suggest that the SDLP has a chance of retaking a second seat from Sinn Fein, and the latter's problems may help to fragment some votes. However the SDLP vote hasn't noticably climbed so I reckon Sinn Fein will edge it.
Prediction: SF 3, SDLP 1, UUP 1, DUP 1 (no change)
Upper Bann
Previous results: 1998: UUP 2, SDLP 1, DUP 1, SF 1, independent anti-Belfast Agreement Unionist 1; 2003: UUP 2, DUP 2, SDLP 1, SF 1 (DUP gain 1 from ind U)
The two nationalist seats look safe. On the Unionist side the votes have some way to go for the DUP to take a third seat from the UUP. This looks like another no change.
Prediction: UUP 2, DUP 2, SDLP 1, SF 1 (no change)
South Down
Previous results: 1998: SDLP 3, SF 1, UUP 1, DUP 1; 2003: SDLP 2, SF 2, UUP 1, DUP 1 (SF gain 1 from SDLP)
Another seat where the recent election results suggest no change all round. There appears to have been some tactical voting for the SDLP by otherwise UUP voters for the Westminster election. The Greens are targetting this seat with a local councillor but it seems doubtful they'll come remotely close.
Prediction: SDLP 2, SF 2, UUP 1, DUP 1 (no change)
Strangford
Previous results: 1998: UUP 2, DUP 2, Alliance 1, UKUP 1; 2003: DUP 3, UUP 2, Alliance 1 (DUP gain 1 from UKUP)
This is becoming the DUP's strongest constituency and they're pretty much assured of three seats. A fourth is not out of the question but as with North Antrim this isn't the easiest thing to achieve and their Westminster result seems to be ahead of their core vote. The UUP vote has been declining and their second seat will need transfers to survive (and bad vote balancing could sink them). Alliance are looking decidely shakey and didn't get quota last time, though local government results give them more optimism. The SDLP have been hoping to make a breakthrough for a while but I doubt it will happen. As a stab I'll go for another no change.
Prediction: DUP 3, UUP 2, Alliance 1 (no change)
North Down
Previous results: 1998: UUP 3, UKUP 1, Alliance 1, NIWC 1; 2003 UUP 2, DUP 2, UKUP 1, Alliance 1 (DUP gain 1 from UUP and 1 from NIWC)
This is one of the most difficult to predict as Westminster elections have seen a lot of tactical voting whilst there are a lot of independent and small party votes in locals. Last time round the election counts were almost completely based on eliminations. Alliance's Eileen Bell is standing down and we also have the recent move of ex Alliance turned independent councillor Brian Wilson (who got 4.4% of the vote last time) to the Greens which could put them into serious contention (as the local results hint). The Conservatives are also targetting the seat with James Leslie, a former UUP minister. All manner of votes seem up for grabs.
I think the following can reasonably be expected: 1 seat definitely for the DUP, 2 seats definitely for the UUP. I'm sceptical they can take a third seat. 1 seat definitely for either the DUP or the UKUP - I suspect the DUP this time. Of the remaining two seats I'm very doubtful the DUP could take a third. UKUP's McCartney will need a boost in his appeal - last time he scraped home and his party's local government base has evaporated, although he's always polled in excess of it, and current politics make it unlikely the DUP will want to throw him a lifeline. Alliance's local government base gives them cause for optimism, though it's only two points down from last time, yet in the last Assembly elections they still struggled. With the Greens running a strong candidate (and ex North Down Alliance) they could be able to surprise us. As a stab in the dark let's have a flutter on both the Greens and Alliance taking the last two seats.
Prediction: UUP 2, DUP 2, Alliance 1, Greens 1 (Greens gain 1 from UKUP)
Overall (compared to 2003)
DUP = 36 (up 6)
SF = 26 or 27 (up 2 or 3)
UUP = 23 (down 4)
SDLP = 17 (down 1)
Alliance = 4 (down 2)
Greens = 1 (up 1)
Independent = 1 or 0
UKUP = 0 (down 1)
PUP = 0 (down 1)
Feel free to laugh at these results when some of these predictions are proved totally wrong on the night!
Monday, April 10, 2006
David Trimble - a true statesman
On the eighth anniversary of the signing of the Good Friday Agreement comes the news that David Trimble is to be made a peer. History will be kinder to Trimble than the electorate. In the long run it will be realised that the Agreement has made Northern Ireland and the wider British Isles a better and more stable place to live. Most of the guns are silent, emigration from the province is slowing down, the communities are more relaxed, the Anglo-Irish Agreement has been ended, the principle that the people of Northern Ireland will decide their fate has been agreed by all major parties in the province, the Republic has removed the claims to the province from its constitution and there is a greater understanding of the Unionist community. Ultimately the Good Friday Agreement has been a victory for Unionism. Sadly some parts of it, especially accepting that the elected representatives of a significant portion of the nationalist community are who they have elected, have proved controversial time and again. All agreements involve difficult compromises (something Ian Paisley would understand if he'd ever actually made some agreements in his long career) and this, along with the fate of the Royal Ulster Constabulary, have been difficult ones. But ultimately the best deal that could be obtained has been achieved. Contrast this with Ian Paisley's approach of repeatedly saying no which seems likely to achieve only the restoration of the Anglo-Irish Agreement in all but name.
And now Trimble is going to the House of Lords. No doubt he will continue to make a significant contribution to UK politics. Might we even see him as a minister in the next Conservative government?
And now Trimble is going to the House of Lords. No doubt he will continue to make a significant contribution to UK politics. Might we even see him as a minister in the next Conservative government?
Sunday, April 02, 2006
Is there no end to this?
Two blogs expose further areas of financial irregularity in the current party funding row. Iain Dale highlights Labour breaking spending limits in the South Staffordshire deferred election - technically not a by-election and thus with a campaign spending limit of £10,000 not £100,000. Meanwhile Slugger O'Toole has details of a cover-up in Belfast, with the Ulster Unionists shunting a large donation around the Union Research Group. The story raises the question as to how many more large donations have been discretely received by parties?
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