Monday, September 30, 2013

Bicameral deadlocks

As I write this, the US Congress is still in deadlock as the two chambers disagree over the budget, with the potential for the federal government to be shut down. Each chamber can claim a democratic mandate (although how an overall minority can veto an overwhelming majority's desire to even debate a measure is interesting - News from ME: Majority Rules, Minority Drools has more about the "the Hastert Rule") and add in the President's democratic mandate and there's not a great deal of progess.

Second chamber reformers here rarely want to give the Lords (or Senate or whatever they want to call it) budget powers but that doesn't mean there's any less of a risk of a deadlock between the two over some other key legislation. It's often forgotten that when the Australian Prime Minister Gough Whitlam was dismissed there were no less than twenty-one pieces of legislation other than supply in formal dispute between the two houses, or that the previous year key legislation such as universal healthcare insurance had only been got onto the statute book through the nuclear option of a snap "double dissolution" election of the whole parliament. It may be budgets in one place and time and healthcare in another and doubtlessly a different issue in a third but the problem remains that when multiple elements in the system claim separate democratic mandates the result can be a recipe for gridlock and chaos.

Cutting the national debt

I'm amazed that common sense has made headlines. George Osborne has pledged to have budget surpluses in the next parliament. In other words he's aiming to cut not just the deficit but the debt. In the long run that would mean the country spends less on debt maintenance and a step towards living within our means.

Why on Earth is such a sensible proposal being taken as a surprise?

Saturday, August 31, 2013

Syria

I've not written or tweeted about Syria until now because I really don't know where I stand on this. The votes by Parliament this week seem pretty decisive so we probably won't get involved. Other countries may well do so.

People have asked if Syria is another Iraq or another Bosnia. But it's never wise to pick a conflict from the history books and arbitarily declare the current situation is that conflict mark 2. Nor can one simply caricature leaders as the key players from such conflicts.

What is clear is that atrocities are taking place in Syria. Whatever happens people will die. That is the sad reality and we cannot trivialise the decision making or focus on what this means for leaders or alliances. What matters is the future of the people of Syria.

Friday, July 26, 2013

School's out! - Or has it been for some time?

It's the last day of the school summer term.

Well that's true for state schools here. A quick google for the term dates of various independent schools in the area reveals... that many need to seriously improve their websites and search engine optimisation. I'm not stopping to dig through every single site that can't easily display links to such basic information but three I could find finished the term on the 19th, the 17th or even the 12th. And if that seems bad, one school from my parents' town has already been on holiday for nearly a month. That's a sign of the problems in this area, though in general from my brief searches it seems to be the end of the summer term where the independents most deviate from the state schools.

The modern arrangements seem to be a vast improvement from when I was a school pupil. Then there was much greater variance in the term dates and half-term in particular could change from school to school. Often I would find my half-term was different from my sister's, and/or a friend next door and/or the schools attended by a majority of the boys in Cubs and Scouts. This created some problems, and caused more in households where the adults were all working, but requests to the schools to standardise term dates generally fell on deaf ears or protests about it being too difficult. The fact that other schools did not seem to find it a problem (my sister seemed to always have the same half-term as most of the Cubs and Scouts and for that matter CBBC and CITV) never seemed to cross their minds.

(From memory I don't think this problem was exclusive to the independent sector. I can recall one Scout camp held in a half-term which was only attended by boys from one the main two primary & secondary combinations attended by the troop plus myself. I don't know if the boys at the other - from memory it was a pair of sister schools - were all having regular classes or the multiple years all had school trips or something else.)

The effects of this could be quite varied. Parents with children who have different term dates may have to take extra weeks off. Some won't be able to at all (I can't see a school allowing a teacher a different week off) and so they have to pay more for child care - and if there aren't many other schools off at that time then the pool of potential babysitters is limited. A workplace may be able to structure its programme to allow one chunk of parents to be off at the same time but having them coming and going in different weeks is going to be far more disruptive and inefficient. The available time for a family to go away is also restricted, especially if further days of leave have had to be used up needlessly on uneven holidays.

Costs can also be increased by various activities. Parents have to pay for themselves more than once to take all the children to various activities in different weeks. Being spread out they also may not qualify for the group discounts. And some activities are only available in particular weeks - this can be anything from a special day at a museum to extra children's sessions at a swimming pool to the half-term schedule of children's television (although the digital age seems to have made the broadcasters more flexible on that one). The advertising sometimes sells things as special "treats" and this can be unintentionally hurtful to other children who don't get the "treat" because it's unavailable to them. If one child gets a treat and another doesn't it's because either the first has done something especially good or the second has been bad. Nobody is setting out to "reward" and/or "punish" children for the decisions of their school, but to the child that's what it can feel like.

Weekly after-school activities sometimes break for "half-term" and don't run during the "holidays" - if the child in question has a significantly different set of term dates then they may be away during the activity's "term time" with the potential for disruption to the schedule or else they may feel tied down by it. Parents can feel resentful of being asked to pay for weeks their child isn't there and not getting the activity in other weeks, especially if other parents are not inconvenienced for the same reason (for them). Alternatively they could take the easiest solution and not have their child take part in that activity.

But if children are to mix with a broader spectrum than just their school contemporaries, it's useful for them to be able to mix at the same time. If the calendars are all over the place then that becomes hard to do that and instead increases the isolation and resentment - even if the children are taking part in such groups, the fact they're getting holidays when others aren't will spark resentment (and it's not going to be solved by claims about longer school hours).

I recently looked through the term dates of various schools attended by myself, my sister and the two boys next door, plus the local state school dates for the next year (it was the only one that all websites listed). I was amazed to see a much greater level of conformity between the six set of dates in the area (ignoring minor details about whether a half-term begins on a Friday, Saturday or Monday though this distinction generally only comes into play with homework) with two exceptions - the end of the summer term is quite varied across four weeks, and all the independent schools in the area now give their pupils a two week half-term in the autumn. I don't know if that's because of newer thinking about holiday lengths, or an attempt to ensure pupils have at least one week of half-term shared with siblings and other schools (and a massive case of all copying each other), but they do at least succeed in the latter case. I'm also not sure how much of the conformity at the start of the summer term is forced by a late Easter (April 20th) but the other signs are encouraging.

Some of the sillier divergences have been swept aside - one school in Epsom made a habit of setting the summer half-term as Derby Week (first Wednesday in June) instead of the late spring Bank Holiday (and in my time there the two were always different weeks), making silly claims that it would difficult to park around the school in that week despite one look at the walk to the race course showing how silly it is to park there for the races. Having the standard half-term (and thanks to the bank holiday that one has had standardisation longer than any other) should and now does take priority over such trivial details.

However one school I attended elsewhere in London hasn't yet caught up with what are a fairly standard set of term dates now (Newham's state schools will also be following them) - it has a single week in the autumn which may be a better arrangement but both that and the spring half-terms are in different weeks from the standard. So the problems are still there and presumably the ostrich approach of pretending conforming is too difficult still reigns. This is despite many local authorities now co-ordinating their term dates to ensure they are the same, and many independent schools signing onto at least the core of that calendar.

There have been proposals floating about to give state schools more "flexibility" and "independence" in this area and let them set their own term dates. Having experienced the mess this can create I think it's a bad idea. This is an area where the independent schools are seeking less independence, and the state sector would be better off with increased use of the current agreed system or even nationally set dates, thus helping parents and children more. That is more important than the dogma of "freeing schools".

Sunday, June 30, 2013

Frack baby, frack!

A dilemma.

What do you do when the country is facing a potential energy crisis that could lead to power cuts in the next few years?

Do you:

a) Hope it just won't happen?

b) Tell everyone they must get prepared to operate without electricity despite so many appliances and other equipment relying on it? Fancy being the one to raise people's food bills even higher by making it impossible to rely on refrigeration to make food last? Or the one to tell people they can't get to work to earn money because there's no electricity to run the trains?

c) Increase our dependency on energy supplies from some dubious regimes in potentially unstable parts of the world?

d) Invest more in renewable energy that doesn't yet have the reliability and output to ensure it can meet all our needs?

e) Tap what is potentially the largest supply of shale gas in the world that's sitting on the country's doorstep and which can be safely extracted and which will reduce carbon emissions?

We need a diverse set of energy supplies to cover our needs and we have to plan for the short and the long run. We have a resource that has already done wonders for other countries' energy needs and economies. It's time to step forward and make use of it.

Friday, May 31, 2013

Still alive

As you may have noticed, I've been blogging rarely these days. I guess Twitter absorbs my instant reactions these days. But don't worry, I'm still here and will post as and when I feel the mood.

Wednesday, April 10, 2013

When Thatcher met the Iron Lady

Margaret Thatcher wasn't always nicknamed "the Iron Lady". That term was originally used for another female Prime Minister, Golda Meir of Israel.

Here are the two meeting in 1976:


Monday, April 08, 2013

Margaret Thatcher 1925-2013

Can Britain be governed?

Nearly forty years ago this country faced a succession of crises that left many asking the above question. A large part of the political class lost its nerve.

But one leader did not. She firmly believe that the country could be governed and set out to prove it. By the mid 1980s few asked the question again.

Margaret Thatcher transformed her party, her country and the world like few others. Her legacy is all around us.

Sunday, March 31, 2013

My brief thoughts on climate change

It is reportedly the coldest Easter on record. It seems an odd time to be thinking about global warming.

Yet that's what many a sceptic is doing, pouncing on the current cold spell as "proof" (sic) that there is in act no global warming and using it to argue we shouldn't bother trying to cut carbon emissions. It just shows how sterile the debate is.

In fact climate change is more complicated than temperatures rising all the time, and prolonged cold spells are a part of the effect due to changing pressures. I don't pretend to understand all the details of the science behind it but I'm more convinced by those who do than by those who simply point at the thermometer in complacency.

And quite apart from anything to do with the climate or to do with improving air quality, in the long run this country (and indeed the world) needs supplies of energy that are cheap, sustainable and secure. We cannot risk being in a situation where our energy supply is ever dependent on a rogue state, nor can we predict which those states will be. We cannot use fossil fuels forever; we may find additional sources and more efficient extraction methods but one day they will invariably run out. And by then energy bills will have spiralled out of control.

The more done now, the safer we will be in the long run. And developing alternate sources is also a way of providing more jobs.

Thursday, February 28, 2013

Farewell Benedict XVI

And so the Pope has formally resigned. Just a month ago that statement was unbelievable. How many more once unbelievable statements will we hear in the years to come?

Will Prince Charles be dropping even more hints now?

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