The decline of small parties

One quick further thought about the elections - small parties have been generally annihilated in both Scotland and Wales. The Scottish Greens have plummeted to two seats, the Scottish Socialists and breakaway rivals Solidarity have been wiped out, so have the Scottish Senior Citizens Party, a single issue "save the local hospital" MSP has lost her seat and another independent MSP retired. This leaves just two Greens and an independent Nationalist in the Scottish Parliament. In Wales John Marek lost his seat and although independents polled well in a number of other constituencies, only in the special case of Blaenau Gwent (facing its third election in two years) where recent wounds are sore did any smaller party candidate win.

So was the brief plethora of small parties just a blip? Are we seeing a return to clear-cut choice in politics?

And the results are in...

Independents Trish Law and Dai Davies have won the two by-elections in Blaenau Gwent. Once again Not So Very New Labour has been given the two fingers in a very Old Labour seat. Could we be seeing the beginning of an Independent Fianna Fáil style effect?

(In the Republic of Ireland, Neil Blaney and other members of his family have almost consistently held onto a Dáil seat in County Donegal ever since Blaney was expelled from Fianna Fáil following his acquittal in the Arms Crisis in 1971. They, along with several successful local councillors, have used the label "Independent Fianna Fáil". Of course family members succeeding one another is far more commonplace across all Ireland than in the UK.)

Meanwhile in Bromley & Chislehurst the Lib Dems' campaign did better than anyone expected - nastiness and all. Just look at Ben Abbotts' opening remarks in the speech.

Bob Neil's comments bear much consideration:

The most vicious, unpleasant, underhanded exampled of cynical personal abuse that I have encountered in thirty years in politics.
...
If you sometimes wonder why it is that people in this country are sometimes turned off by politics, get a mirror and look at yourselves.

Labour have done badly, but many readers of my blog can take heart. Eleven years ago the Conservatives dropped from second to fifth in a by-election.

Constituencies do not belong to parties, they belong to the voters

My flatmate is that exceptionally rare creature - a Conservative who comes from Blaenau Gwent. This was the constituency where in the last general election the party received its second lowest share of the vote in the entire country. Because of him I've been paying particular attention to events there following the death of Peter Law.

Law broke with the Labour Party in protest over the imposition of an all-women shortlist for selecting the parliamentary candidate upon the local Constituency Labour Party - a selection process in which approximately only 14% of the local party membership participated. Running as an independent Law's thumping victory was one of the high points of the night and a stark reminder to all political parties that there is no such thing as a "safe seat" and that no-one can take the voters for granted.

Shortly before Law's death it seemed he had been vindicated when it was announced that Labour would not impose such a shortlist on the selection of its candidate for the next general election. However it seems they are still trying to take the people of Blaenau Gwent for granted. As Peter Black AM notes, Labour has been trying to push for an early by-election. As Law was an independent MP there is no holding party in Parliament who would otherwise determine when the writ for the by-election would be moved. And so Labour try to force a fast poll to maximise their chances of regaining both seats - and winning Law's seat in the Welsh Assembly would give them an overall majority.

However they appear to have been thwarted. The by-election for the Welsh Assembly seat can only by called from the National Assembly and Presiding Officer Dafydd Elis-Thomas has refused to consider dates until after Law's funeral. Unless Labour were to try and hold the two by-elections apart (and the Welsh Assembly seat is the bigger target) this should stop them.

No party owns Blaenau Gwent. I hope that come the by-elections the voters will remember that Labour still hasn't learnt the lesson they were taught last May.