Wednesday, September 17, 2008

Is this poll serious?!

A truthful poster for the Lib DemsUK Polling Report: Conservatives break 50%? has the latest figures from MORI and they are incredible:

Conservatives 52% +4
Labour 24% N/C
Lib Dems 12% -5

Yes the Liberal Democrats are polling less than a quarter of the Conservative share. According to an internal party group document Liberal Vision - The Cameron Effect (pdf) the Lib Dems are facing a huge drubbing at the next election and this poll could take them to their worst result since 1970.

Meanwhile Labour is flatlining, down to just the rock solid core vote. This is an even worse level than they got in 1931 (see When Labour was even more flappable).

But is this poll realistic? I've long wondered if the polling companies have taken on board that it is no longer considered embarrassing to admit voting Conservative, and potentially embarrassing to admit to voting Labour. So the poll may be badly weighted. Whilst it's nice to imagine the effect of these results, the next election will only be won through hard work and convincing the public. I don't think it's settled yet.

1 comment:

Anonymous said...

Of course this poll doesn't take into account the fact that the 52% may consist of a lot of 20,000 majorities in already safe seats, but not the breakthroughs in marginals where Tory grassroots activity crumbled in the 90s and hasn't picked itself up off the floor yet.


Related Posts Plugin for WordPress, Blogger...