Thursday, March 08, 2007

The Northern Ireland Assembly elections

Unfortunately my research today is keeping me from the internet, so my only source of information until this evening will be the BBC's text service of results.

Being an STV election it will take some time to determine the eventual composition of the new Assembly, and based on past elections the count could last into the evening tomorrow. Most of the hotly contested seats will be determined on transfers so even with the initial first preference results it won't be possible to determine some of them.

But my early revised predictions and thoughts on some constituencies in what has turned out to be a rather quiet election, at times drifting away from the constitutional issues and into other areas on policy:

First off I have a suspicion the UUP are going to do a lot worse than anyone's predicting. Opinion polls are notoriously useless in the province, massively overstating the UUP/SDLP vote at the expense of DUP/Sinn Fein, but when the UUP are polling only 16% then either they've become a party that no-one wants to admit voting for or a party that's running on empey big time.

Belfast West

It seems increasingly likely that the DUP will retain their seat here, against four for Sinn Fein and one for the SDLP. This particular election saw an interesting development that may either delight those who hope for the day when major parties compete for votes in all communities or run in horror. Both the UUP and DUP candidates took out adverts in the Anderstown News, pitching directly at the Nationalist/Roman Catholic community. The UUP advert was rather flat but at least positive reasons to vote for him (even if not very strong or convincing ones) but the DUP advert was a declaration that their candidate is anti-abortion, opposes "Peter Hain's anti-family agenda" (i.e. civil partnerships and equality legislation) and that Sinn Fein and the SDLP supported it. The DUP's record on homophobia is well known (the "Save Ulster from Sodomy" campaign, the expulsion of Paul Berry and so forth) but is it really in Northern Ireland's best interests for old community divides to be bridged in the name of new hate campaigns?

Predict: Sinn Fein 4, SDLP 1, DUP 1

Belfast East

On paper everything points to the DUP gaining a third seat at the expense of the PUP. And yet... There's a possibility that history could repeat itself for at least a fourth time. The DUP have a long history of vote mismanagement in this constituency, regardless of whether they try balancing the vote between candidates or piling it all up on their favourite (Peter Robinson). And with UUP leader Sir Reg Empey seeking re-election in this constituency, Robinson will probably not want to be outpolled by him (from recollection he last lost to Empey in 1975) in the run-up to the eventual DUP leadership election. I'm not saying for certain that things will foul up on the DUP again, but this is not a constituency that always meets even first round predictions.

Predict: Hmm... let's stay with my previous DUP 3, UUP 2, Alliance 1

South Antrim

The SDLP nominated two candidates to defend their single seat and the long running feud between them has burst out into the open, with fierce campaigning by each candidate on the other's lawn and front page headlines in the local paper. Everyone was wondering if Sinn Fein's Mitchell McLaughlin or Alliance leader David Ford would see the end of their careers, but with the SDLP turning in on itself (plus the DUP urging their supporters to transfer to Ford to keep Sinn Fein out) it seems as though both men will fight another day.

Predict: DUP 2, UUP 2, Alliance 1, Sinn Fein 1

West Tyrone

Reports are circulating that Kieran Deeny has been fighting on additional issues to the hospital. This strategy has worked for independents in the Republic (although party loyalty amongst voters is looser there) but could be the final thrashings of a man facing defeat?

Predict: Sinn Fein 3, SDLP 1, DUP 1, UUP 1

North Down

This is looking interesting, if not confusing. The UUP seem to be in dire straights and may be down to a single seat. This in turn could release a lot of votes to go in new directions. Meanwhile Bob McCartney's UKUP is reportedly invisible on the ground - this could be his last hurrah. I think we'll see at least one new party in the Assembly.

Predict: Confusion and another very long count.

And now to the results information coming in:

14:01 No-one elected yet, but both the DUP and Sinn Fein saying they've polled strongly and are expecting games.

14:53 East Belfast - Peter Robinson (DUP Deputy Leader elected) - no surprise. More interestingly Naomi Long appears to have been elected on the first count, indicating an upturn in the Alliance vote. Given that in recent years the UUP have made their main vote gains from Alliance (amidst losses elsewhere), this could spell a reversion and doom. Note that Sir Reg Empey hasn't yet been elected - not an encouraging sign for the UUP. (It does, however, mean that Robinson can face the DUP leadership election with the boast of having personally beaten the UUP leader at least seven times running.) The other interesting question is whether or not Dawn Purvis can retain the PUP seat here. Long's first count election potentially frees up some transfers and surpluses that might now go to Purvis. But I'm sceptical it will be enough.

Also reported is that Bob McCartney (UKUP leader) "looks like losing his North Down seat." I don't know if this indicates yet another first count with no-one elected in North Down (last time it took twelve rounds before anyone was elected!) but it's a promising sign (and will have people of all political persuasions cheering). McCartney has stood in five other constituencies but mainly those where neither his party nor independent anti-St Andrews Agreement Unionists were fielding anyone else (and that still left a few seats without any such candidate) so I doubt he'll be able to crawl back in in one of those.

15:54 Several more results come in, all on the first count.

North Belfast: Nigel Dodds (DUP) and Gerry Kelly (Sinn Fein) both elected. No real surprises here. The voting figures will give an indication as to how far the Sinn Fein vote will have to rise before Dodds's Westminster seat becomes vulnerable.
South Belfast: Jimmy Spratt (DUP) becomes the first new member of the Assembly. The DUP are widely tipped to gain a second seat here so this is an encouraging sign for them. Alasdair McDonnell (SDLP Deputy Leader) has also been elected first count. However the SDLP vote hasn't always been strong enough for two quotas here and as the local MP McDonnell may have taken the bulk of the votes so without numbers it remains to be seen how well his running mate is doing.
West Belfast: Gerry Adams (Sinn Fein leader) elected. No real surprise.

Seats: DUP 3, Sinn Fein 2, SDLP 1, Alliance 1, Others 0.

16:26 Some results from outside Belfast.

Lagan Valley: Jeffrey Donaldson (DUP) elected first count.
East Londonderry: Gregory Campbell (DUP) elected first count.

No real surprises here.

Seats: DUP 5, Sinn Fein 2, SDLP 1, Alliance 1, Others 0.

17:16 More first count results:

North Antrim: Ian Paisley (snr) (DUP leader) and D. McKary (Sinn Fein) elected. Since Sinn Fein only ran one candidate, due to particularly strong opposition to the St Andrews Agreement within their North Antrim party, it isn't really a surprise that their candidate was elected so quickly.

North Down: A. Easton (DUP). Now here's a surprise - one would have expected the DUP to be pushing Peter Weir for the most votes in preparation for an assault on the Westminster seat next time round.

East Antrim: Sammy Wilson (DUP). No surprise.

Seats: DUP 8, Sinn Fein 3, SDLP 1, Alliance 1, Others 0.

The UUP have still to win a seat. One of the problems is their consistent over nomination, particularly standing three candidates in many constituencies where they are facing a struggle to retain two seats. Without the numbers they may well be balancing for all I know, but right now UUP morale can't be high.

17:59 More results, with some moving into second counts.

West Tyrone: Pat Doherty (Sinn Fein), Barry McElduff (Sinn Fein) both first count. This suggests a strengthening of their vote as they seek to take a third seat.

Newry & Armagh: Conor Murphy (Sinn Fein) and C Boylan (Sinn Fein) both first count. Again it's a sign that they should hold their third seat (wich the SDLP had been hoping to take from them).

North Belfast: C Nm Chuilmn (Sinn Fein) second count. On this limited information I guess the DUP vote is balancing well and they will take a third seat at the expense of the UUP.

Seats: DUP 8, Sinn Fein 8, SDLP 1, Alliance 1, Others 0.

18:41 Ever more results

Mid Ulster: Martin McGuinness (Sinn Fein), Ian McCrea (DUP), Francie Molloy (Sinn Fein) M O'Neill (DUP) all first count. No surprise as Sinn Fein only ran three candidates despite having potential to start building for a future fourth seat, potential that could have been derailed by anti-policing Republicans.

North Antrim: Ian "Babydoc" Paisley Jnr (DUP) second count. Like father like son.

East Belfast: Sir Reg Empey (UUP leader). Finally a UUP seat

Seats: DUP 10, Sinn Fein 11, SDLP 1, Alliance 1, UUP 1, Others 0.


South Antrim: Mitchell McLaughlin (Sinn Fein), Willie McCrea (DUP). The first clear gain and an incredible result for Sinn Fein - they've been struggling for years in this seat. Now it remains to be seen if David Ford (Alliance leader) will be losing out.

Foyle: Mark Durkan (SDLP leader), William Hay (DUP).

Strangford: Iris Robinson (DUP).

Upper Bann: David Simpson (DUP).

West Belfast: Sue Ramsay (Sinn Fein).

Fermanagh & South Tyrone: Tom Elliott (UUP).

All fairly predictable, though interesting to note the UUP is still fighting in Fermanagh & South Tyrone.

Seats: DUP 13, Sinn Fein 13, SDLP 2, Alliance 1, UUP 2, Others 0.

As I'm now on the net, I'll be able to access the full figures now.

East Antrim:
Candidate Party Status Count Votes* %
Sammy Wilson DUP Elected 1 6,755 22.5
George Dawson DUP Elected 2 4,167 13.9
Sean Neeson AP 3,114 10.4
Roy Beggs UUP 3,076 10.2
David Hilditch DUP Elected 3 2,732 9.1
Ken Robinson UUP 1,881 6.3
Danny O'Connor SDLP 1,769 5.9
Stewart Dickson AP 1,624 5.4
Mark Dunn UUP 1,617 5.4
Oliver McMullan SF 1,168 3.9
Tom Robinson UKUP 731 2.4
Mark Bailey GP 612 2.0
John Anderson IND Eliminated 4 398 1.3
Tim Lewis Con 395 1.3
Total valid vote 30,039 53.0
Turnout 30,293 53.5

No real surprises here, although the growth in the Sinn Fein vote is notable.

Same prediction: 3 DUP, 2 UUP, 1 Alliance

Belfast East:

Candidate Party Status Count Votes* %
Peter Robinson DUP Elected 1 5,635 19.0
Naomi Long AP Elected 1 5,583 18.8
Reg Empey UUP Elected 3 4,139 14.0
Wallace Browne DUP 3,185 10.7
Dawn Purvis PUP 3,045 10.3
Robin Newton DUP 2,335 7.9
Michael Copeland UUP 1,557 5.3
Niall Ó'Donnghaile SF 1,055 3.6
Jim Rodgers UUP 820 2.8
Mary Muldoon SDLP 816 2.8
Steve Agnew GP 653 2.2
Glyn Chambers Con Eliminated 5 427 1.4
Tommy Black Soc Eliminated 5 225 0.8
Joe Bell WP Eliminated 5 107 0.4
Rainbow George MPH Eliminated 5 47 0.2
Total valid vote 29,629 59.5
Turnout 29,873 60.0

If the DUP have learnt how to balance they should win three seats. But amazingly the PUP have bounced back and Dawn Purvis is in with a fighting chance. The UUP vote is dire in the leader's constituency and it looks like they will be the losers.

New prediction: 3 DUP, 1 UUP, 1 Alliance, 1 PUP

East Londonderry:

Candidate Party Status Count Votes* %
Gregory Campbell DUP Elected 1 6,845 20.2
Francie Brolly SF 4,476 13.2
George Robinson DUP 3,991 11.8
David McClarty UUP 2,875 8.5
Adrian McQuillan DUP 2,650 7.8
John Dallat SDLP 2,538 7.5
Billy Leonard SF 2,321 6.8
Norman Hillis UUP 2,054 6.1
Orla Beattie SDLP 1,797 5.3
Barney Fitzpatrick AP 1,401 4.1
Edwin Stevenson UUP 1,338 3.9
Leslie Cubitt UKUP 649 1.9
Phillippe Moison GP 521 1.5
Michael McGonigle IND Eliminated 2 393 1.2
Victor Love Christie IND Eliminated 2 73 0.2
Total valid vote 33,922 60.5
Turnout 34,180 60.9

Two battles still to be resolved - will Sinn Fein take the SDLP seat? My guess is no. Will the DUP take the second UUP seat? It seems very likely.

New prediction: DUP 3, UUP 1, SF 1, SDLP 1

Fermanagh & South Tyrone:

Candidate Party Status Count Votes* %
Arlene Foster DUP Elected 1 7,138 15.4
Michelle Gildernew SF Elected 1 7,026 15.1
Tom Elliott UUP Elected 2 6,603 14.2
Gerry McHugh SF 5,103 11.0
Sean Lynch SF 4,704 10.1
Maurice Morrow DUP 4,700 10.1
Tommy Gallagher SDLP 4,440 9.6
Kenny Donaldson UUP 2,531 5.4
Vincent Currie SDLP 2,043 4.4
Gerry McGeough IND 814 1.8
Allan Leonard AP 521 1.1
Michael McManus IND 431 0.9
Robert McCartney UKUP 388 0.8
Total valid vote 46,442 70.6
Turnout 46,845 71.2

Quota 6,635 Electorate 65,826

I must have missed the text with Foster and Gildernew's election. On the Unionist side the DUP will take a second seat thanks to Foster's defection. On the nationalist side things are looking awfully tight for the SDLP - by running two candidates they may have split the vote and it won't necessarily reunify. There may, however, be some Unionist transfers floating about that could help them.

Same prediction: 2 SF, 2 DUP, 1 UUP, 1 SDLP


Candidate Party Status Count Votes* %
William Hay DUP Elected 1 6,960 17.0
Mark Durkan SDLP Elected 1 6,401 15.6
Martina Anderson SF 5,414 13.2
Raymond McCartney SF 4,321 10.5
Pat Ramsey SDLP 3,242 7.9
Lynn Fleming SF 2,914 7.1
Mary Bradley SDLP 2,891 7.0
Helen Quigley SDLP 2,648 6.5
Eamonn McCann SEA 2,045 5.0
Peggy O'Hara IND 1,789 4.4
Peter Munce UUP 1,755 4.3
Adele Corry GP Eliminated 2 359 0.9
Yvonne Boyle AP Eliminated 2 224 0.5
Willie Frazer IND Eliminated 2 73 0.2
Total valid vote 41,036 63.2
Turnout 41,455 63.9

Unless things go very wrong for them in the transfers, the SDLP should keep their third seat.

Same prediction: SDLP 3, SF 2, DUP 1

Lagan Valley:

Candidate Party Status Count Votes* %
Jeffrey Donaldson DUP Elected 1 9,793 23.4
Paul Butler SF Elected 6 5,098 12.2
Basil McCrea UUP 4,031 9.6
Trevor Lunn AP 3,765 9.0
Jonathan Craig DUP 3,471 8.3
Edwin Poots DUP 3,457 8.3
Paul Givan DUP 3,377 8.1
Marietta Farrell SDLP Eliminated 5 2,839 6.8
Billy Bell UUP Eliminated 6 2,599 6.2
Ronnie Crawford UUP Eliminated 4 1,147 2.7
Michael Rogan GP Eliminated 4 922 2.2
Robert McCartney UKUP Eliminated 3 853 2.0
Neil Johnston Con Eliminated 2 387 0.9
John Magee WP Eliminated 2 83 0.2
Total valid vote 41,822 59.7
Turnout 42,058 60.0

Quite an advanced count by the time I accessed these results. It's clear:

New prediction: 3 DUP, 1 SF, 1 UUP, 1 Alliance

Mid Ulster:

Candidate Party Status Count Votes* %
Martin McGuinness SF Elected 1 8,065 18.2
Ian McCrea DUP Elected 1 7,608 17.2
Francie Molloy SF Elected 1 6,597 14.9
Michelle O'Neill SF Elected 2 6,432 14.5
Patsy McGlone SDLP 4,976 11.2
Billy Armstrong UUP 4,781 10.8
Kate Lagan SDLP 2,759 6.2
Walter Millar UKUP 1,210 2.7
Anne Forde DUP 1,021 2.3
Brendan McLaughlin IND 437 1.0
Margaret Marshall AP 221 0.5
Harry Hutchinson IND 170 0.4
Total valid vote 44,277 72.3
Turnout 44,728 73.1

Another that looks clear. The UUP seat looks safe for now. The UKUP vote is quite high and indeed the DUP vote is down here.

Same prediction: 3 SF, 1 SDLP, 1 DUP, 1 UUP.

Newry & Armagh:

Candidate Party Status Count Votes* %
Conor Murphy SF Elected 1 7,437 15.0
Cathal Boylan SF Elected 1 7,105 14.3
Danny Kennedy UUP 6,517 13.1
William Irwin DUP 6,418 12.9
Mickey Brady SF Elected 4 6,337 12.8
Dominic Bradley SDLP 5,318 10.7
Sharon Haughey SDLP 4,500 9.1
Paul Berry IND Eliminated 4 2,317 4.7
Davy Hyland IND Eliminated 3 2,188 4.4
Willie Frazer IND Eliminated 1 605 1.2
Brendan Morgan GP Eliminated 1 599 1.2
Máire Hendron AP Eliminated 1 278 0.6
Total valid vote 49,619 70.1
Turnout 50,165 70.8

Okay since the joke is obvious, Paul Berry is now out.

Otherwise this is one of the only seats where the UUP are leading the DUP, albeit by just 99 votes and clearly because of the DUP's local difficulties.

With so many candidates now eliminated it's clear this will be:

Same prediction: SF 3, SDLP 1, UUP 1, DUP 1

North Antrim:

Candidate Party Status Count Votes* %
Ian Paisley DUP Elected 1 7,716 17.4
Daithi McKay SF Elected 1 7,065 15.9
Ian Paisley DUP Elected 2 6,106 13.8
Mervyn Storey DUP 5,171 11.7
Robert Coulter UUP 5,047 11.4
Declan O'Loan SDLP 3,281 7.4
Deirdre Nelson DUP 2,740 6.2
Orla Black SDLP 2,129 4.8
Lyle Cubitt UKUP 1,848 4.2
Robin Swann UUP 1,281 2.9
Jayne Dunlop AP Eliminated 5 1,254 2.8
Paul McGlinchey IND Eliminated 4 383 0.9
James Gregg IND Eliminated 4 310 0.7
Total valid vote 44,331 72.4
Turnout 44,655 72.9

Another where it looks fairly stable, although the shift in votes suggests next time round some seats will be very vulnerable.

Same prediction: DUP 3, UUP 1, SF 1, SDLP 1

Belfast North:

Candidate Party Status Count Votes* %
Nigel Dodds DUP Elected 1 6,973 23.5
Gerry Kelly SF Elected 1 5,414 18.2
Caral Ni Chuilin SF Elected 4 3,680 12.4
Fred Cobain UUP 2,498 8.4
Nelson McCausland DUP 2,462 8.3
Alban Maginness SDLP 2,212 7.4
Pat Convery SDLP 1,868 6.3
William Humphrey DUP 1,673 5.6
Raymond McCord IND 1,320 4.4
Peter Emerson GP 590 2.0
Tommy McCullough AP 486 1.6
Robert McCartney UKUP 360 1.2
John Lavery WP 139 0.5
Rainbow George MPH 40 0.1
Total valid vote 29,715 60.2
Turnout 30,067 60.9

Without an idea of transfers it's very difficult to guess how the Unionist fight is going. Fred Cobain looks to be in a strong position but is very vulnerable to the votes consolidating. Given how badly the UUP is doing elsewhere I'm inclined to call this one against them.

Same prediction: DUP 3, SF 2, SDLP 1

North Down:

Candidate Party Status Count Votes* %
Alex Easton DUP Elected 1 4,946 16.1
Peter Weir DUP 3,376 11.0
Stephen Farry AP 3,131 10.2
Leslie Cree UUP 2,937 9.6
Brian Wilson GP 2,839 9.2
Alan McFarland UUP 2,245 7.3
Alan Graham DUP 2,147 7.0
Marion Smith UUP 2,098 6.8
Robert McCartney UKUP 1,806 5.9
Brian Rowan IND 1,194 3.9
Alan Chambers IND 1,129 3.7
Liam Logan SDLP 1,115 3.6
James Leslie Con Eliminated 0 864 2.8
Deaglan Page SF Eliminated 3 390 1.3
Elaine Martin PUP Eliminated 3 367 1.2
Chris Carter IND Eliminated 2 123 0.4
Total valid vote 30,707 53.4
Turnout 30,930 53.8

It looks like Bob McCartney is going OUT OUT OUT!

Otherwise this looks like a very drawn out count. But I think the UUP should just get a second seat on transfers, with Alliance hanging on and the Greens making a historic breakthrough.

Same prediction: DUP 2, UUP 2, Alliance 1, Greens 1

South Antrim:

Candidate Party Status Count Votes* %
Mitchel McLaughlin SF Elected 1 6,313 16.5
William McCrea DUP Elected 1 6,023 15.8
David Ford AP 5,007 13.1
David Burnside UUP 4,507 11.8
Trevor Clarke DUP 4,302 11.3
Mel Lucas DUP 2,840 7.4
Thomas Burns SDLP 2,721 7.1
Danny Kinahan UUP 2,391 6.3
Noreen McClelland SDLP 1,526 4.0
Stephen Nicholl UUP 927 2.4
Robert McCartney UKUP 893 2.3
Peter Whitcroft GP 507 1.3
Stephen O'Brien Con 129 0.3
Marcella Delaney WP 89 0.2
Total valid vote 38,175 58.1
Turnout 38,481 58.6

Quota 5,454 Electorate 65,654

At the top end Mitchel McLaughlin topping the poll is astounding. At the bottom end things look awfully tight between a second UUP candidate (and fortune is not smiling on them today), a third DUP candidate and any SDLP candidate. David Ford (Alliance leader) looks safe.

New prediction: DUP 3, SF 1, UUP 1, Alliance 1

David Burnside (UUP - who looks safe) has called for his party to go into opposition to the devolved administration. It seems someone at least in the UUP has an idea of a direction to go in. Burnside should contest the UUP leadership this year and settle once and for all whether or not the party is going his way.

Belfast South:

Candidate Party Status Count Votes* %
Jimmy Spratt DUP Elected 1 4,762 15.7
Alasdair McDonnell SDLP Elected 1 4,379 14.4
Alex Maskey SF 3,996 13.2
Anna Lo AP 3,829 12.6
Carmel Hanna SDLP 3,748 12.4
Michael McGimpsey UUP 2,647 8.7
Christopher Stalford DUP 2,035 6.7
Esmond Birnie UUP 1,804 5.9
Bob Stoker UUP Eliminated 0 1,122 3.7
Brenda Cooke GP 737 2.4
Andrew Park PUP 410 1.4
David Hoey UKUP 298 1.0
Jim Barbour Soc Eliminated 6 248 0.8
Paddy Lynn WP Eliminated 5 123 0.4
Roger Lomas Con Eliminated 5 108 0.4
Rainbow George MPH Eliminated 4 66 0.2
Charles Smyth PROC Eliminated 4 22 0.1
Geoffrey Wilson IND Eliminated 4 10 0.0
Total valid vote 30,344 62.0
Turnout 30,533 62.4

Astonishingly people are talking about Alliance taking a Unionist seat - but it could well happen. Certainly the votes imply a UUP->Alliance shift. Indeed the DUP vote is not as strong as they'd like, or very well balanced. Sinn Fein have defied all predictions of a loss here and even improved their vote share.

New prediction: SDLP 2, DUP 1, UUP 1, Alliance 1

South Down:

Candidate Party Status Count Votes* %
Caitriona Ruane SF Elected 7 6,334 13.7
Margaret Ritchie SDLP 5,838 12.7
PJ Bradley SDLP 5,652 12.3
Jim Wells DUP 5,542 12.0
Willie Clarke SF 5,138 11.1
John McCallister UUP 4,447 9.6
Michael Carr SDLP 2,972 6.4
Eamonn McConvey SF Eliminated 7 2,662 5.8
William Burns DUP 2,611 5.7
Ciaran Mussen GP Eliminated 6 1,622 3.5
Henry Reilly UKIP Eliminated 5 1,229 2.7
David Griffin AP Eliminated 4 691 1.5
Martin Cunningham IND Eliminated 4 434 0.9
Nelson Wharton UKUP Eliminated 4 424 0.9
Peter Bowles Con Eliminated 3 391 0.8
Malachi Curran LP Eliminated 2 123 0.3
Total valid vote 46,110 64.3
Turnout 46,623 65.0

With no idea as to transfers it's hard to be sure, but it looks as though the UUP will hang on here.

Same prediction: SDLP 2, SF 2, DUP 1, UUP 1


Candidate Party Status Count Votes* %
Iris Robinson DUP Elected 1 5,917 16.4
Jim Shannon DUP 4,788 13.3
Kieran McCarthy AP 4,085 11.3
Simon Hamilton DUP 3,889 10.8
David McNarry UUP 3,709 10.3
Michelle McIlveen DUP 3,468 9.6
Joe Boyle SDLP 3,068 8.5
Angus Carson UUP 2,128 5.9
Dermot Kennedy SF 1,089 3.0
George Ennis UKUP 872 2.4
Stephanie Sim GP 868 2.4
Michael Henderson UUP 675 1.9
David Gregg IND 650 1.8
Bob Little Con 508 1.4
Cedric Wilson IND Eliminated 2 305 0.8
Total valid vote 36,019 54.0
Turnout 36,340 54.5

This longs complex because both a second UUP and a fourth DUP seat are in or out of the realms of possibility. The DUP have balanced a lot better - so for now I'll call it their way:

New prediction: DUP 4, UUP 1, Alliance 1

Upper Bann:

Candidate Party Status Count Votes* %
John O'Dowd SF Elected 1 7,733 18.0
David Simpson DUP Elected 1 6,828 15.9
Sam Gardiner UUP 5,135 12.0
Dolores Kelly SDLP 4,689 10.9
Stephen Moutray DUP 3,663 8.5
Dessie Ward SF 3,118 7.3
John McCrum DUP 2,975 6.9
George Savage UUP 2,167 5.1
Arnold Hatch UUP 1,815 4.2
David Calvert IND 1,332 3.1
Helen Corry GP 1,156 2.7
Sheila McQuaid AP 798 1.9
Patrick McAleenan SDLP Eliminated 4 761 1.8
Barry Toman IND Eliminated 3 386 0.9
David Fry Con Eliminated 3 248 0.6
Suzanne Peeples IND Eliminated 3 78 0.2
Total valid vote 42,882 60.6
Turnout 43,235 61.1

Quota 6,127 Electorate 70,716

It seems that Sinn Fein may gain from the UUP here.

New prediction: DUP 2, SF 2, UUP 1, SDLP 1

Belfast West:

Candidate Party Status Count Votes* %
Gerry Adams SF Elected 1 6,029 17.8
Sue Ramsey SF Elected 2 4,715 14.0
Paul Maskey SF 4,368 12.9
Jennifer McCann SF 4,265 12.6
Fra McCann SF 4,254 12.6
Diane Dodds DUP 3,661 10.8
Alex Attwood SDLP 3,036 9.0
Margaret Walsh SDLP 1,074 3.2
Sean Mitchell PBP 774 2.3
Louis West UUP 558 1.7
John Lowry WP 434 1.3
Geraldine Taylor IND Eliminated 5 427 1.3
Dan McGuinness AP Eliminated 4 127 0.4
Rainbow George MPH Eliminated 4 68 0.2
Total valid vote 33,790 66.5
Turnout 34,238 67.4

Sinn Fein have balanced spectacularly and look on course for five seats. This leaves the last seat between the SDLP and the DUP - with the current balance favouring the former.

New prediction: SF 5, SDLP 1

West Tyrone:

Candidate Party Status Count Votes* %
Barry McElduff SF Elected 1 6,971 16.8
Pat Doherty SF Elected 1 6,709 16.2
Claire McGill SF Elected 3 4,757 11.5
Thomas Buchanan DUP 4,625 11.2
Allan Bresland DUP 4,244 10.2
Kieran Deeny IND 3,776 9.1
Derek Hussey UUP 3,686 8.9
Jo Deehan SDLP 2,689 6.5
Eugene McMenamin SDLP 2,272 5.5
Seamus Shields SDLP 1,057 2.5
Joe O'Neill IND 448 1.1
Robert McCartney UKUP 220 0.5
Total valid vote 41,454 71.0
Turnout 41,839 71.7

Quota 5,923 Electorate 58,367

Messy as fuck! Sinn Fein have finally won all three seats and the DUP are on course to hold their seat - and indeed have managed to outbalance the UUP. But with three SDLP candidates fighting for a single seat and Kieran Deeny doing well there's a lot to play for.

New prediction: SF 3, DUP 1, Deeny 1, SDLP 1

Over all it's quite a shock that the UUP is still sinking further. The party seems in terminal decline now.

1 comment:

Manfarang said...

Northern Ireland Conservatives off the radar!


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